WASHINGTON — MJ Hegar sits in prime position ahead of next week’s Democratic primary to take on Republican Sen. John Cornyn, if campaign cash is any guide.

While the Air Force veteran long ago established herself as the fundraising front-runner in the crowded field, a Dallas Morning News analysis of a previously uncompiled campaign finance data set — the most complete one to date — shows the depth and breadth of her dominance.

Hegar has secured donations in at least three-fourths of Texas counties, even as none of her Senate rivals has done so in a majority. She easily outpaced the field in fundraising in Texas’ 10 most populous counties, which typically account for 70% or so of the Democratic vote.

In 2019 alone, she received nearly quadruple the number of donations in Texas than all her top Democratic foes combined.

But it remains an open question if that advantage will be enough to elevate Hegar in a jumbled contest, one that’s all but certain to result in a runoff. Many voters are still unfamiliar with the Senate contenders, some of whom have their own fundraising data points in their favor.

It can also be a fool’s errand to predict electoral success off of fundraising prowess, particularly as the Democratic presidential primary — far more than any other race — is likely to drive turnout.

“She should be in the runoff, and she should probably be in first,” said Democratic consultant Harold Cook, referring to Hegar. “But in this primary race, the difference between being broke and being rich probably isn’t that great.”

That’s not to say Hegar’s hefty war chest won’t matter.

Significant financial resources are essential to deploying TV ads and other get-out-the-vote efforts in an expansive state like Texas. Success among donors, particularly of the small-dollar variety, often points to the kind of broad base that’s needed to win at the ballot box.

A fundraising windfall can also be a double-edged sword.

Critics have noted how Hegar has benefited from the backing of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and other groups from outside of Texas. Some Republicans have even labeled her “Hollywood Hegar” due to the large sums she’s raised out of state.

Plus, the other contenders have not been sitting idle.

State Sen. Royce West tops the field in his home of Dallas County, while former Houston City Council member Amanda Edwards leads in Harris County. Organizer Cristina Tzintzún Ramirez has created buzz among progressives, while also receiving outside spending support.

While campaign cash may or may not portend the winner, it could affect the margins in what’s expected to be a tight race.

“Money can’t buy you love, necessarily, in terms of a win,” said Victoria DeFrancesco Soto, an expert at the University of Texas at Austin. “But it sure can buy you name recognition. In these jumbled primaries, that’s where money is so key.”

The Democratic financial standings carry added weight because Sen. John Cornyn, the Republican incumbent, has been filling his campaign coffers at a startling pace. He’s raised more than $11.6 million since the start of last year and holds more than $12 million in reserve.

So whoever emerges from the Democratic field will be playing catch-up in a big way.

The News’ analysis looked at all Democratic Senate contributions made through January to the top five contenders on reports from ActBlue, a Democratic fundraising platform, or on candidate reports when a donor gave more than $200, but not through ActBlue.

Then The News added in donations from the first 12 days of February that appeared on candidate reports, including ActBlue contributions made by those who have given at least $200. (The stilted pairing reflects quirks in how different types of donations are reported.)

The ActBlue data was culled mostly by the Center for Public Integrity, a nonprofit news outlet, while the candidate data was compiled by ProPublica, another nonprofit news organization.

Data from ActBlue hold particular importance, since those contributions shed light on the names, addresses and professions of small-dollar donors whose personal details are typically not included in the candidates’ filings with the Federal Election Commission.

The combined data set represents well over 95% of the individual contributions, measured by dollars, made to the top five Democratic Senate contenders to date.

That comprehensiveness allows an unprecedented glimpse at how and where the top candidates are raising money in Texas and beyond, while also offering clues of how the unsettled primary might shake out on Super Tuesday.

Some of the top-line trends were already obvious.

Hegar’s early start

Hegar has paced the Democratic field, bringing in more than $3.8 million to date. Edwards, Tzintzún Ramirez and West have followed behind, each raising about $1 million. Former U.S. Rep. Chris Bell of Houston has collected about $375,000.

Those standings partly reflect Hegar getting into the race a few months before her top rivals. They also highlight the fundraising machine she first deployed last cycle, when she went from being a relative unknown to nearly toppling a longtime GOP congressman in Central Texas.

While the bounty has not been enough to make a huge dent in Texas’ vast media markets, Hegar has started to separate herself from the field in recent polling as her investments — and notably, those from friendly outside groups like VoteVets — take hold.

“We have built out the strongest operation, and are in the best position to meet the demands of a Texas-sized winning Senate race," said Hegar, who’s touted her ability to launch a TV advertising campaign ahead of the primary.

The expanded fundraising data analyzed by The News offer more insight on the race’s financial foundation.

Hegar raised about half of her money out of state, including in locales like California and New York, while Tzintzún Ramirez relied on non-Texans for about 60% of her haul. Bell, Edwards and West, meanwhile, have run campaigns fueled largely by donors in the Lone Star State.

It’s hard to make an apples-to-apples comparison to Cornyn’s fundraising, since the GOP only recently started to rely on an ActBlue equivalent. But of the individual contributions made to him by donors who’ve given at least $200, about a third of them have come from out of state.

The influx of donations from outside of Texas has opened up some candidates, particularly Hegar, to attacks.

Adding to the critique for Hegar is that she’s been endorsed by the DSCC, the D.C.-based Senate Democrats’ campaign arm, and other groups. That kind of backing can be critical in building out campaign infrastructure, including in the fundraising realm, and filling in any gaps.

Hegar dismissed those jabs, saying the DSCC endorsement, for instance is “a nod to the strength of the grassroots campaign that we’ve built.”

County-level differences

Differences among the Democrats extend even to the county level.

To drill down to that detail in Texas, The News geocoded donors’ addresses. The practice is imperfect. Some donors list their home address, while others list their work address. Some contributors simply use a post office box. But it still helps give a sense of regional strength.

West, for instance, raised nearly 55% of his money in Dallas County, where he’s been a state senator for nearly 30 years. Edwards brought in nearly 65% of her haul in Harris County. Hegar used her Central Texas bona fides to run up big numbers in Williamson and Travis counties.

More than just hometown pride is at stake.

Harris and Dallas counties, for instance, can together represent a quarter of the Democratic vote. So West, Edwards and Bell appear to be focusing on those voter-rich areas — certainly in their fundraising efforts — in the hopes that it will be enough to put them through to a runoff.

Edwards said it matters “having a base of supporters where there is a high concentration of Democratic voting.”

“People assign a certain value to dollars and don’t always pay attention to where those dollars are coming from,” said Edwards, who complained about “attempts from outside entities to try to influence politics in Texas.” “There’s some significance and relevance to that."

West spokesman Vince Leibowitz, in turn, said that the “North Texas donor base gives us a great launching pad,” noting the gains that West helped Democrats make in the Dallas area in the last several election cycles.

“These are the people who know Royce West and his work best,” he said, predicting that West would finish second in the primary and advance to a runoff.

Contributions, of course, don’t equal votes. The opposite is true, too. Consider that Sema Hernandez, a lightly funded Senate candidate this election cycle and last, still managed to receive 24% of the primary vote in 2018 against former El Paso Rep. Beto O’Rourke.

It’s worth noting that the Houston and Dallas contenders have not succeeded in entirely walling off their territory from the rest of the field — and Hegar, in particular.

Experience running for office

There’s also more than one way to build out a fundraising operation that can allow for success. Of the Democratic contenders, only Tzintzún Ramirez lacks the experience of having been on a ballot before — and with that, a natural geographic base for donations.

She has sought to flip that fact as an advantage, while also benefiting from outside spending by the Lone Star Forward Super PAC. Her ability to tap into the fundraising network of the likes of New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, a recent backer, could also prove to be significant.

David Sanchez, Tzintzún Ramirez’s campaign manager, said the campaign has been working hard to introduce her “as a political candidate” and that groups and activists inside Texas and out have helped achieve that goal.

“All of these organizations and groups have helped us to reach more people both in Texas and across the country,” he said.

In truth, the fundraising battle is just beginning. Some candidates have even banked on that fact.

Bell, the former congressman, said he knew “there were going to be challenges on the fundraising front” after being out of office for so many years. But he’s hopeful that his name ID from a past statewide campaign will be enough to propel him to a runoff.

“The game changes dramatically in the runoff,” he said, predicting an influx of donations. “There have been so many people waiting just to see what happens — nobody has really been able to figure out how this is going to break.”

Computational journalist John Hancock in Dallas contributed to this report.