State of Mexico's Election for Governor: Why It Matters

About one in eight Mexicans lives in Edomex. Of those 17 million people (roughly the population of Guatemala), about 13 million are registered voters. As such, Edomex takes in the largest stake—14 percent—of the federal government’s spending on the states. It accounts for 9.1 percent of Mexico’s GDP, second only to neighboring Mexico City in contributing to the national economy. If it were a country, it would be the tenth-biggest economy in Latin America. 

But despite its economic and voter heft, Edomex is a microcosm of many of Mexico’s biggest challenges. About 37 percent of the state’s residents say they can’t cover basic costs, similar to 38.5 percent nationally. Some 55 percent of its workers are informally employed; the national average is 51 percent.

It's also afflicted by crime woes, and nearly 91 percent of its inhabitants feel their state is unsafe—the second-highest rate in Mexico. No other state has a higher rate of violent theft, and, in a country where more than 10 women are murdered each day, Edomex holds the tragic rank of being the state with the largest number of femicides. 

In light of these problems, three-quarters of Edomex residents say a new political party should take control. 

If Edomex’s size, economy, and challenges represent Mexico, the gubernatorial race reflects state-level and national political divides. 

Gómez, 60, is the daughter of a construction worker and a housewife. Nicknamed “La Maestra” the former schoolteacher held roles in her state’s education ministry before becoming mayor of Texcoco, a town some contend is home to a new political group within Morena, who rival the PRI’s Grupo Atlacomulco Group. As a former member of AMLO’s cabinet, she benefits from the popular and populist president celebrating her as “an honest woman.” But while she names combatting corruption a top priority, she’s been at the center of more than one controversy; the electoral tribunal fined her for docking the pay of Texcoco city workers to raise funds for Morena. 

Voters may overlook such transgressions, particularly given that just days ahead of the election, a collaborative investigative report unveiled evidence that Edomex's PRI government—Del Moral included—were involved in a $300 embezzlement scandal. Among Edomex voters, a May 29 El Universal poll gave Gómez 59 percent support to Alejandra del Moral’s 41 percent. A mere 18 percent of the state’s respondents say the PRI should stay in power. 

With Morena eclipsing the PRI nationwide and poll numbers like these, it's no wonder that del Moral’s campaign has an air of an underdog opposition candidate rather than the member of the incumbent party. Though after the scandal broke in the final days before the election, Del Moral canceled a high-profile media appearance. 

The 39-year-old daughter-in-law of a former PRI governor, Del Moral studied at some of Mexico’s most prestigious universities and was motivated to enter politics at the age of 18 after she endured a six-day kidnapping. At 25, she became Mexico’s youngest mayor when she won in her hometown of Cuautitlán Izcalli. She went on to become a federal deputy and work in the Peña Nieto administration, though she has sought to distance herself from suggestions she is linked to Grupo Atlacomulco. 

No matter who wins, this will be an election of firsts. With only two candidates competing, Edomex will have its first woman governor. If Gómez wins, Morena will govern the state for the first time. Even if del Moral wins, her victory would represent the first triumph of the Va Por México coalition in the state. 

The election will also set the stage for the 2024 presidential elections. If del Moral pulls off an upset, the Va Por México alliance could point to the victory as evidence of its viability to curtail Morena’s growing power and contend for the presidency. 

Regardless of the outcome, expect important political moves just after this election is over. While AMLO has been floating potential successor names for years, days after this Sunday’s vote, Morena’s party leader says he will bring together top candidates to plan for an internal survey that will determine the party candidate, to be announced later in the summer. Polls suggest Mexico City Mayor Claudia Sheinbaum is the frontrunner with Foreign Minister Marcelo Ebrard in second. Morena’s internal process has been considered opaque and AMLO’s opinion can hold more sway than national polling. Still, many believe Sheinbaum is his preferred candidate. Morena leads polls against rival parties and coalitions.

Similarly, Va Por México is expected to define its process to pick a candidate after June 4, with at least one party leader suggesting the candidate could be selected by September. 

This article is the first in a series on Mexico’s upcoming election year. Check www.as-coa.org for ongoing coverage.