EDITORIAL

5 things to look for in the Aug. 28 Arizona primary election

Opinion: What should you expect in Arizona on Election Night? Here are 5 things to watch.

The Republic | azcentral.com
Political symbols

Every election has consequences.

But Arizona's Aug. 28 primary election could have big implications for what happens in November. And that's not just for Arizona, which has hotly contested races for governor, state and legislative offices. Many observers believe the contest for an open U.S. Senate seat could sway the balance of power in Congress.

We asked azcentral.com columnists about what to expect on Election Night – and what those results might mean.

1. They're frontrunners for a reason

My crystal ball was badly damaged in 2016 and hasn’t yet come back from the repair shop. I can say for sure that it will be an unusually hot fall with copious blasts of hot air from Tuesday’s primary winners.

Now for the guesses: Ken Bennett will wake up Wednesday and wonder why he risked his reputation as a GOP elder statesman to take on a sitting GOP governor. Martha McSally and Kyrsten Sinema will become Senate candidates after insulting primary voters by refusing to debate their primary challengers.

Democrats will anoint David Garcia, who will spend the next two months trying to deflect – without dignifying – the covert, dog-whistle racism that will come at him from "dark money" groups that want to keep Arizona in Republican control.

– Linda Valdez

2. Don't rule out or ignore surprises

The frontrunners will probably get the nods, especially in the larger races. But that's relying on how primary voters have made their choices in the past.

Primary elections typically have low turnout, and those who vote are often older, redder and more politically engaged than the statewide population. Early ballot returns suggest we may be in for more of the same: More Republicans have voted than Democrats, and only a tiny fraction of ballots have come from independents. 

Pay attention to how that changes on Election Day. If a lot of people who normally don't vote show up, we could be in for some surprises. Democrats could choose the more progressive candidate, for example, or a slew of political outsiders and teachers could win legislative races. 

Any surprises deserve careful scrutiny. Because it could signal that Arizona voters are as restless or dissatisfied with the status quo as voters are in other states. And the November election could become even more dramatic than it already is shaping up to be.

– Joanna Allhands

3. Watch the size of the Trump effect

How large of an influence will Trump loyalists have on the GOP races for state offices?

The president’s name and presence are keenly felt, in particular in the contests for secretary of state, treasurer and schools superintendent.

Businessman Steve Gaynor has taken a script from Trump on stoking suspicions that undocumented immigrants illegally cast ballots — and that Secretary of State Michele Reagan is helping them do so — though none of this with foundation.

Treasurer hopeful Jo Ann Sabbagh hails all things Trump and lambastes Kimberly Yee as being part of “The Swamp” that needs to be drained. And Superintendent Diane Douglas still plays that political “outsider” card. In a five-person primary, could that be enough?

– Abe Kwok

4. It's now a McCain vs. Trump nation 

Until this week, Arizona and the country had been divided between President Trump’s camp and the rest of the nation. Sen. John McCain’s death changed it all.

McCain’s death reminded the nation of its need to return to political civility. U.S. Senate hopeful Kelli Ward crystallized that vicious sentiment in her bid to knock out GOP rivals Rep. Martha McSally and ex-lawman Joe Arpaio.

She had the guts to accuse the McCain family of hurting her chances and then tweeting that “political correctness is like a cancer!”

Ward won’t win, but she and Trump supporters like her aren’t going anywhere. McSally, Gov. Doug Ducey and others will have choose: Are they going to govern in a McCain or Trump nation?

– Elvia Díaz

5. Will Dems get off their purity kick?

When we're about a half-hour into results, it will be clear, if it isn't already, that Kyrsten Sinema is her party's nominee and the best hope in a generation for Democrats to win a U.S. Senate seat in Arizona.

The purity test will blow up. She'll suddenly be liberal enough for all the fusspots who accuse her of being a Republican. They won't care a whit about her centrist votes when she stands next to Martha McSally in her now fire-red MAGA flight suit. But Sinema will have to explain the pink tutu.

 – Phil Boas

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