Mike Johnson is Running Out of Time

Speaker Mike Johnson faces a looming crisis and a possible threat to his speakership.

The Louisiana Republican is dealing with a major backlash from hard-liners in his own party over a spending deal arranged with the Democrat-led Senate.

"He should have never been hired," Ohio Congressman Warren Davidson told reporters on January 10.

Davidson is one of a number of Republicans unhappy with the deal and is part of the Freedom Caucus, a group around 40 members strong and adamant the accord between Johnson and Senator Chuck Schumer was a "total failure."

It includes includes $704 billion for non-defense and $886 billion in defense spending to be allocated by the Appropriations Committee for specific government departments and agencies.

A further $69 billion side deal in adjustments in non-defense spending was also reached.

The risks for Johnson are easily identifiable by the events of October last year, when former Speaker Kevin McCarthy's tumultuous time leading the House ended with him being pushed out by his own side. He suffered the ignominy of being the first speaker to be ousted from the role in U.S. history.

Not keen to follow in McCarthy's footsteps, Johnson has remained defiant and asserted publicly that he isn't in "any jeopardy of being vacated."

"It's not something I walk around and think about," he told Fox News on January 10.

True or not, it is something his colleagues are considering and making little show of hiding it, despite the possibility of a government shutdown.

Texas Representative Chip Roy said a motion to vacate was being left "on the table," but indicated there was possible room for maneuver. "I'm not gonna say I'm gonna go file it tomorrow... I'm not saying I'm not going to file it tomorrow," Roy told Fox, adding, "I think the speaker needs to know that we're angry about it."

How concerned Johnson should be is unclear. Roy was not one of the eight democrats who conspired to kick McCarthy from the speakership in October, but the Republican majority in the House is slim and only a few votes are required to get rid of him, assuming the Democrats vote to vacate.

Johnson's attempts at reasoning with uneasy Republicans have also been unsuccessful.

Newsweek was referred to a "Dear Colleague" letter by Johnson's team written after the deal was made. He hailed a $30 billion reduction from the Senate's proposed spending, but this was not enough for opponents.

The numbers put forward in "Dear Colleague" by Johnson didn't appear to assuage concerned colleagues. Missouri Representative Eric Burlison told Newsweek that Congress "cannot continue to kick the can down the road" on the issue of debt.

He said: "Our country is over $34 trillion in debt and it's climbing higher every day. The cost of servicing our debt is now larger than our annual spending on defense. That is unsustainable and hurts American families. We need to make the tough decisions now."

A shutdown could also occur unless Democrats don't agree to more stringent policies on the border, where a migrant crisis continues to challenge the Biden administration. Johnson himself has urged President Joe Biden to take out further measures to secure the border and the pair also spoke today.

If a deal does not pass, the government is likely to shutdown and cause significant strife for millions of Americans as all non-essential functions are halted. This includes money to contractors and people may not receive pay until a deal is reached.

These problems are exacerbated by the fact that current agreements to fund certain agents run out on January 19.

In all likelihood, the deal is likely to pass with Democrats and most Republicans supporting it, but this could anger hard-liners to the point of further action that could be trouble for Johnson.

They have already shown flashes of a willingness to slow down official procedures and 13 Republicans joined Democrats on December 10 to shoot down a procedural vote on bills not related to spending.

But isn't all bad news for Johnson, a shutdown could hit impact voters in the year after record inflation and even the most hard-line of lawmakers are likely to carefully consider it. Its popularity is doubtful in what is election year, with key races coming up.

"I think they'll hold off on the speaker because they know they'll never be able to get somebody who is so close to them if they do it again," John Mark Hansen, of the University of Chicago's Political Science and the College said to Newsweek.

"I don't think public opinion will hold the extremists in the caucus back. Although you never know, because there are some of them who are so self regarding that they don't care about the party or the country."

"It's important to remember that real people stand to get hurt," Peter Loge, an Associate Director in the School of Media and Public Affairs at The George Washington University, told Newsweek.

"A shutdown is intentionally throwing gunk in the machine so the machine won't work. And when the machine doesn't work, people get hurt."

There is also sympathy for Johnson in his own party. New York Representative Mike Lawler called the eight that ousted McCarthy last year a group of "nitwits," CNN reported, and said hard-liners were "kidding themselves" if they thought they could get a better deal than the speaker.

The frustration could rise among more moderate Republicans too, many will have closely fought seats to think about in November.

Loge added: "The more Republicans in Congress argue over a budget deal, the less they are talking about things that matter to most people. Whenever Republicans are talking about keeping the lights on, they aren't talking about crime, the US - Mexico border, or inflation. One reason voters might punish Republicans for failing to get a budget deal is that Republicans aren't focusing on what people care about, which is physical safety and financial security.

"All that said, I would guess that Republicans may stamp their feet and shake their fists, but they will let Speaker Johnson keep his job through the election. What happens after November is anybody's guess."