Nikki Haley is now the only Republican candidate that can stop Donald Trump from securing the party's nomination for president.
The polling is heavily tipped towards the former president sweeping to victory in the Granite State, but Haley's team will be attempting to draw in more support after Florida Governor Ron DeSantis withdrew over the weekend.
DeSantis has endorsed Trump, but some in Haley's camp will be hoping to bring over some of his backers in a bid to prevent a candidate she says is "consumed by chaos."
Anything but a major upset is likely to see Trump secure the votes he needs for victory.
A win for Haley in New Hampshire today would be a shock, but can she pull it off?
Polling
Trump still has an advantage in the overall polling in New Hampshire. A survey by Monmouth University and the Washington Post put the 45th president ahead with 52 percent of the vote compared to Haley on 34 percent.
This is smaller than the 30-point chasm that secured Trump victory in Iowa with Haley in third place behind DeSantis, who registered eight percent in the poll.
Polling analysis website FiveThirtyEight has Haley at an average of 36.7 percent, compared to her opponent on 52.3 percent, so by polling alone a win for Haley would be a surprise.
Some analysis is more encouraging for the former South Carolina governor. Earlier this month, a poll of likely voters by the American Research Group Inc. put both Trump and Haley at 40 percent.
The same poll taken between January 18 and January 20 has seen Trump increase his lead slightly with 46 percent compared to Haley on 44 percent, just six percent went to DeSantis.
Can Nikki Haley win?
Around 40 percent of the voters in New Hampshire are independent and Haley will need a strong show of support from them to have any chance of winning.
According to a recent Boston Globe/NBC-10/Suffolk poll, Haley leads Trump among these voters on 49 percent, ahead by 11 points. This poll was recorded before DeSantis dropped out.
She needs them if she is going to have any chance of upsetting the Republican Party apple cart, which massively favors Trump as its candidate.
The voter demographic is more in Haley's favor than it was in Iowa, where white, Christian evangelicals make up a higher percentage of the population than in New Hampshire, a state generally considered to be more moderate.
A CNN exit poll from the Centennial State said 53 percent of Trump's voters who responded to the survey described themselves as white born-again or evangelical Christian voters.
New Hampshire also has a higher percentage of college voters, more inclined to vote for Haley.
Haley needs to secure the vote of moderate Republicans, turned off by the chaos, scandals and legal problems tied around the Trump's campaign's neck and build a coalition with independents and non-registered Democrats.
New Hampshire voters typically aren't fans of the type of "bombast" associated with the Trump campaign, according to Peter Loge, director of the School of Media and Public Affairs at George Washington University.
"New Hampshire is a more traditional election," Loge told Newsweek. "Many of Trump's supporters are committed activists, the fans that will crowd a stadium to watch a middling team play in a snowstorm. New Hampshire voters are also historically more measured than Iowa Republican caucus goers."
Haley has positioned herself as the voice of reason and while Trump's base appears to have been buoyed by the criminal indictments against him, she has begun to focus her campaign on separating herself from the Trump headlines.
She asked voters in Franklin: "Do you want more of the same, or do you want something new?"
Trump has around 67 percent of GOP voters nationally according to FiveThirtyEight, Haley has previously tempered her attacks on Trump. In recent days, however, the swipes have increased.
Haley has accused Trump of trying to "buddy up with dictators that want to kill us," and has said to CBS that Trump is "mentally fit" but "declining."
Newsweek has approached the Trump and Haley campaigns via email for comment.
It is a similar accusation leveled, fairly or not, at Democrat President Joe Biden and appears to have been effective rhetoric.
Trump's own attacks on "losing candidate" Haley have also increased in the days closer to the New Hampshire primary. He told a crowd in Laconia, New Hampshire that a coalition of "globalists and radical left communists" were conspiring to get behind Haley and defeat the Trump movement.
Haley also needs to secure support from the now politically homeless supporters of ex-candidates DeSantis and Chris Christie. A Suffolk University survey of New Hampshire voters released before vocal Trump critic Christie dropped out of the Republican race said just 10 percent of his voters and 22 percent of Haley's would vote for Trump over Biden.
Winning over DeSantis voters could be trickier. A University of New Hampshire Survey Center poll recorded 62 percent of DeSantis' supporters as backing Trump as their second choice.
What if Haley wins?
Haley will hope a win in New Hampshire will help her build momentum to seriously challenge Trump in the rest of the primaries.
Due to her favorability compared to Trump among American voters, she may attempt to pitch herself as the only candidate that can beat Biden. Here, she has some numbers to back it up with Trump scoring a polling average of 51.8 percent of voters finding him unfavorable.
Just 43.1 percent of voters find Trump favorable. Biden's popularity figure remains just over the 40 percent mark.
Time is also a factor. In the coming months, the Supreme Court could rule on his immunity—Trump says he is immune from prosecution because the allegations against him relate to his time in office—and if states can strike him off the ballot.
He also faces four criminal trials after he was hit with 91 charges across four indictments. He denies all of the charges and his claim they are politically motivated appears to have been a useful move to consolidate support among his own base, but he could see problems emerge among swayable voters as the trials develop.
Even then, support for Trump remains strong and his base is less likely to turn away from him. The University of New Hampshire poll said 88 percent of supporters were steadfast in their endorsement of him.
"I think Haley has very little chance of becoming the Republican nominee," George Mason University Associate Professor of Political Science Jennifer Nicoll Victor told Newsweek. "Trump has a dominating command of the party, its resources, endorsements, and all the other things that we tend to think of as indicators for where parties are headed. [Haley] may do well in tomorrow's vote.
"I would be surprised if she wins, but even if she did, it seems unlikely to be enough to overcome Trump's groundswell of support and momentum at this point."
Mary Frances Berry, Geraldine R. Segal professor of American Social Thought at the University of Pennsylvania, said that "a close second would suffice to keep a Haley candidacy viable," but she could face problems thereafter.
Loge added that only a "massive win" from Haley could make a dent in the side of the Trump campaign juggernaut. "That seems profoundly unlikely," Loge said. "Only a real thumping could hope to shake up the race."
Uncommon Knowledge
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
About the writer
Benjamin Lynch is a Newsweek reporter based in London, U.K. His focus is U.S. politics and national affairs and he ... Read more
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