Hegseth 'looking increasingly unlikely' to stick as DOD pick with questions swirling

(TNND) — President-elect Donald Trump might be on the verge of swapping his pick for defense secretary.

Multiple media outlets, citing unnamed sources, report that the Trump team is growing concerned about Pete Hegseth’s ability to win Senate confirmation. The Associated Press, for example, cited several people familiar with the matter who were not authorized to publicly discuss internal deliberations.

But there seems to be enough smoke that there might be a fire, according to experts.

“It’s looking increasingly unlikely,” Casey Burgat, the Legislative Affairs Program Director at George Washington University, said of Hegseth’s ability to stick as Trump’s Department of Defense pick and then win Senate confirmation.

“And the best signal you can get for having a troubled confirmation is having unnamed sources floating your potential replacement,” Burgat continued Wednesday morning. “And so, that's what we're seeing with him. We just saw a drip, drip, drip of – it was already a questionable pick at the beginning – and then we saw a drip, drip, drip of the background vetting coming to light. And all of it not good news for Hegseth’s likelihood of getting confirmation.”

Hegseth faces questions over his past treatment of women and reports of excessive drinking.

Hegseth, a combat veteran and former Fox News host, has faced questions from the beginning of his nomination about his experience and ability to lead a massive government department.

Now, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’ name is being widely circulated as Hegseth’s potential replacement.

DeSantis is a one-time presidential rival of Trump’s who has his own military experience and might see the defense secretary role as a stepping stone to another White House run.

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Peter Loge, the director of the School of Media and Public Affairs at GW, said DeSantis would presumably have a much easier confirmation process.

“He's a governor. He's a known commodity. He served in the military. He served with distinction in the military. He was a legal advisor to SEAL Team 1,” Loge said. “As a governor, he's run things. And it really, at that level, you want a guy who's a pretty good operations guy. And being a governor is a complicated job. I think it’d be much easier.”

Burgat said DeSantis is such a known figure that there aren’t likely to be surprises that could derail his confirmation.

“Given the fact that he's ran for president, won multiple terms as governor, I can't imagine something down the pike that no one’s uncovered yet,” Burgat said.

Assuming no Senate Democrats support Hegseth for defense secretary, which Burgat said is likely to be the case, Trump can only afford to lose the support of three Republican senators in a tight chamber and still get Hegseth confirmed.

Loge said Hegseth is likely finished as Trump’s Pentagon chief nominee, given the tight Senate margins and the concerns swirling around Hegseth’s experience and personal conduct.

“If you have to ask your mom to go on TV to plead your case, you're not in a good place,” he said, referencing an interview Penelope Hegseth did with Fox News to explain a critical 2018 email she sent him and to defend his character. “That DeSantis is getting a lot of attention certainly indicates he might be the guy. But ‘predictable’ is not a word that is often associated with President Trump's approach to governance. So, we'll see.”

Hegseth was back in Congress meeting with senators when he was asked about the rumors of DeSantis replacing him as the defense secretary nominee.

"I spoke to the President-elect this morning. He said keep going, keep fighting. I’m behind you all the way,’” Hegseth told a reporter.

The Trump team is still publicly backing Hegseth. That clip was posted on X by the Trump campaign.

Burgat, however, also expects Hegseth to lose the nomination.

“I bet it will probably be Hegseth dropping himself, so Trump doesn't have to do it,” Burgat said.

It’s unknown if DeSantis would accept the defense secretary nomination, but Burgat said there’s a “lure to serving in the Cabinet,” and DeSantis could be convinced that getting into the Washington, D.C., bubble with the Pentagon job would set him up nicely to run for president again in 2028.

Loge said he thinks DeSantis, Trump’s former presidential rival within the GOP, would be willing to defer to Trump in the Cabinet role.

“Trump absolutely surrounds himself with loyalists who will simply implement what Donald Trump says to implement,” Loge said. “DeSantis is eager to prove that he's a loyalist, because somebody has to follow Trump as president of the United States. And one of the ways you do that is demonstrate to the Trump base that you're a Trump loyalist. And this is a way for DeSantis to get back into the Trump loyalty game.”

Trump has already had to replace his attorney general pick, swapping Pam Bondi in for Matt Gaetz amid Gaetz’s own personal conduct controversy.

But Loge doesn’t think Trump’s momentum will be slowed by a second high-profile Cabinet pick substitution.

“No,” he said. “Trump throughout his business and political career has simply plowed through failures as if they were wet tissue paper. He's had casinos go bankrupt and kept going. His campaign in 2016 was declared dead several times, and he kept going. His campaign in 2024 was declared dead. He kept going. He's a caffeinated bull in a china shop. Banging the walls, changes direction. But I'm not sure it changes momentum.”