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Virginia Elections Prove Gun Safety is the Winning Issue for 2020

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For decades, the conventional political wisdom has been this: most voters may agree on the need for common-sense gun measures like background checks on all gun sales, but those who vote solely on the issue of gun policy vote Republican.

If the 2017 election of Democrat Ralph Northam as Virginia’s Governor gouged that conventional wisdom, the 2019 takeover of Virginia’s General Assembly by Democrats — who ran unabashedly on gun safety — has largely invalidated it.

Last Tuesday, for the first time in 25 years, Democrats won control of the both the Virginia House of Delegates and Virginia state Senate. Hours after the polls closed, my firm began conducting a poll of 600 voters across 22 swing state House and Senate Districts — largely the suburban districts that decided who won control of the General Assembly.

Our survey results showed clearly that gun safety was the top issue for Virginia voters. Further, it also showed that, by enormous margins, those who decided their vote based on a candidate’s position on gun issues voted for Democratic candidates.

My firm conducted similar polling in the aftermath of Virginia’s 2017 elections. In 2017, gun issues ranked as the third most important issue to voters, helping elect Northam as Governor.

In 2019, voters ranked a candidate’s position on guns as their number one issue overall (28%)—ahead of jobs and the economy (24%) and health care (24%). Moreover, an astounding 83 percent of voters said that gun issues were important to them.

Among those voters who ranked gun issues as their top voting issue, 66 percent voted for Democratic candidates in the election, compared with just 32 percent who voted for Republicans — demonstrating the potency of gun safety as an election issue. Not only have Democrats closed the intensity gap that used to favor Republicans — they have now opened a decisive gap in their favor. 

Taken together, our polling and the election results themselves showed that Republicans made colossal political and policy mistakes in the aftermath of a mass shooting at the Virginia Beach Municipal Center in May, which left 12 people dead and another four wounded.

In response to the Virginia Beach shooting, Governor Northam called a special session with the purpose of passing new laws to prevent gun violence. However, rather than seriously considering policy changes, the Republican majority huddled with NRA lobbyists, and on the day of the session, voted to end it without considering any new legislation, or even debating bills.

Virginia Democrats turned the Republicans’ inaction into their rallying cry, highlighting Republicans’ failure to consider common-sense gun reform with direct voter contact, television and digital ads, targeted mail, and earned media.

Our research revealed that this was a highly successful strategy. Among voters who saw television ads on candidates’ gun positions, 55 percent voted for Democrats compared to only 43 percent who voted for Republicans. Moreover, voters who said that ‘media’ on candidates’ gun positions were important to their voting decision supported Democrats by an equally large 56-to-43 percent margin.

That being said, we wanted to dig deeper. There’s no doubt that President Donald Trump has been highly divisive, with historically low approval ratings. So, we tested nine different messages that were delivered by Democratic campaigns, including a message that a Republican candidate would bring President Trump’s agenda to Virginia, to gauge the effectiveness of gun-themed messages compared to other messages.

Our survey found that the top testing anti-GOP message was Republicans’ opposition to background checks on all gun sales, with Republicans’ opposition to red flag legislation testing among the top three messages. Both gun-themed messages were more impactful with voters than anti-Trump messaging.

Put simply, our polling shows that this election was more of a referendum on Republicans’ gun policies than on President Trump himself.

Overall, the survey confirmed what can only be described as a seismic shift, not just in voter attitudes on gun issues, but in the importance of those views to their voting decisions. It should buoy Democratic candidates who have proudly championed gun safety, and serve as a stark warning for Republican candidates — including President Trump — who have stood with the NRA, instead of the public on this issue. It should also serve as a roadmap for those who want to run for office this cycle. 

Indeed, Virginia’s off-year elections have frequently been a bellwether for the following year’s elections. Governor Northam’s successful election in 2017 was followed by a suburban revolt from the GOP, resulting in a Democratic takeover of the U.S. House of Representatives. In those congressional elections, it was the gun safety movement — not the gun lobby — that proved its political strength.

Contrary to the longstanding notion of the NRA being a political heavyweight, gun violence prevention organizations outspent the NRA in the 2018 midterms, including Everytown for Gun Safety, which spent $30 million and overwhelmed the NRA. Everytown was also the largest outside spender in Virginia’s 2019 elections, spending $2.5 million and dramatically outpacing the NRA on the airwaves and on the ground.

It’s clear that the public — particularly across American suburbs — doesn’t just support gun safety, but are now deciding their votes based on where candidates stand on gun policy. With the NRA becoming increasingly extreme, and withdrawing from its role as bulwarks in competitive elections, 2020 candidates should feel confident that gun safety is not only a winning issue, but may also be the key to creating new majorities up and down the ballot.

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