Shelby County Schools will phase in youngest first, but metrics for reopening buildings unclear

Laura Testino
Memphis Commercial Appeal

Students in pre-kindergarten through third grade will likely be the first to return to Shelby County Schools classrooms, Superintendent Joris Ray said in an interview with The Commercial Appeal on Tuesday. 

The reopening will occur in phases. 

"One of the most difficult things we had to face is being all virtual. And with that being said, we are always trying to figure out with the help of science and health professionals, how to transition students back in person...And we'll start with pre-K, possibly through three, and our most fragile students" which he clarified as the district's Exceptional Children, who receive special education resources.

Shelby County School Superintendent Dr. Joris Ray speaks to reporters about the COVID-19 case at the the Shelby County Emergency Management and Homeland Security Office on Wednesday, March 11, 2020.

Since Sept. 24, the district has said to expect COVID-19 metrics "in the coming days" that would govern when in-person learning might return. Those metrics could include data such as case numbers, positivity rates and transmission rates. As of Tuesday, Ray said there was no timeline for when those metrics would be released, but the district was working on them.

In SCS, teachers in the district's youngest grades are trying to find ways to connect with students who are the most used to getting high fives and hugs from their teachers as they learn foundational reading and math skills

More:'This is something different': Shelby County School students log in to new school year

"We acknowledge that virtual instruction isn't perfect, but isn't broken," Ray said. "We're making achievements and climbing virtual victories every day, as we continue to lean on science." 

COVID-19 metrics for reopening are unclear

On the first day of school, Ray said he would look for 14 days of single-digit COVID-19 case numbers in Shelby County before bringing students back to campus, a metric the county hasn't hit since reporting its first case March 8. 

More:SCS students might not go back to class until new COVID-19 cases hit single digits, Joris Ray says

In an interview with The Commercial Appeal, Jon McCullers, who has advised Memphis and Shelby County leaders throughout COVID-19 and is pediatrician-in-chief at Le Bonheur Children's Hospital, said the metric "may be a little over-ambitious.”

Ray said this week the district is re-evaluating its metrics for reopening, which would include data like new case numbers, positivity rates and transmission.

Currently, SCS is consulting with the health department, medical professionals and local leadership, as well as its own school board, to solidify the metrics. Several high school athletes and parents called for detailed metrics in late September in response to the district suspending sports so long as school is virtual. At that time, the district said metrics would be arriving "in the coming days." 

More:Shelby County Schools players and parents to protest the cancellation of fall sports

"Right now, we don't have a timeline," Ray said about releasing the metrics. "I will always want to really get the board's feedback first before we make anything public. ... But at the end of the day, whatever we do is going to be grounded in the health and safety of our students and teachers."

In announcing that sports would be suspended, Ray cited several factors unique to SCS students and families that make the populations disparately impacted by the virus itself. 

"Given the risks and exposure for them and their families, not to mention the unknown long-term health impact of this virus, we must also consider the impact on multi-generational families and the sobering fact that unlike many private school families, many of our students don’t have access to specialists, health insurance, urgent care and frequent testing," Ray said on Sept. 15. 

The factors are, in part, many of the same factors that led to SCS — the state's largest school district and the county's second-largest employer — shutting its doors within a week of the county's first COVID-19 case. 

After watching other districts return in Shelby County, though, McCullers believes early data shows that when protocols are followed, in-person school can be done safely. 

“I'd love to see SCS back in the classrooms," McCullers said in September. He pointed to potential learning loss that could impact student futures, reported increases in adverse childhood experiences and suspected increases in child abuse as reasons for bringing students back to in-person learning. 

More:Le Bonheur guidance to schools includes protocols for tracing, reporting COVID-19 cases

"I think it would be safe to do so right now. ... I think if you know, if they can follow the policies it should be safe to back in school in a hybrid model, perhaps," he said, which would cut down on the number of students in a classroom at one time. 

McCullers pointed to potential issues with the school's workforce and facilities as obstacles to implementing all of the suggested COVID-19 protocols. Though he didn't list specific examples, with respect to what is needed for COVID-19 protocols, those issues could represent adequate staffing for a hybrid model or adequate air quality in school buildings.

Of the outbreaks associated with schools in Shelby County, McCullers said, most come from sports or off-campus events. 

More:Anatomy of an outbreak: Why Collierville High halted in-person classes 2 weeks after reopening

"I think what we've found is that with the policies we've enacted, which is masks, plus the distancing in the classrooms, that we're not seeing transmission within the schools within the normal school setting, and which is what you'd worry you'd see, a cluster within a classroom where they would come back to the parents," McCullers said. "What we're seeing is just individual cases, which is probably more likely family transmission and the kids identified at school."

Community conditions in Shelby County have improved since the July spike; conditions were at the worst when SCS made the decision to go all-virtual. While daily case counts are still in the triple digits, rolling 7- and 14-day case averages are closer to 100 than to 400.

"I certainly before we had even attempted this (reopening schools) would have been very concerned about school under the levels of transmission we were having in July," McCullers said. "Now, I'd probably still be concerned, but maybe I'd be more willing to kind of see what happens. And then shut it down, if we did start seeing a bunch of outbreaks." 

At manageable levels of community transmission, McCullers said, is the prime time to be asymptomatically testing target populations, like students and teachers, to catch asymptomatic cases early. Some schools are doing as much via a pool testing partnership with the city of Memphis. 

Though Shelby County Schools will start all-virtual for students on Monday, health signage is posted along the halls at Hickory Ridge Elementary on Friday, Aug. 28, 2020.

More:Memphis launches new strategy for widespread testing at schools

Ray stressed that the district is still operating from its S.A.F.E. re-entry plan, and reiterated the function that the "flexibility" plays in the plan. 

"I've always said that we have to remain flexible, and the flexible part was going all virtual," Ray said. "And now that we are all virtual, how are we going to phase students back in." 

SCS reviewing student engagement, still assessing achievement, learning loss

Adjusting to virtual learning has been easier on some families and educators than others, based on interviews with educators and families and public comments to the SCS board. Though most students are attending virtual classes, it's unclear how successful virtual learning has been so far through a student achievement lens, or whether that would signal a sooner return to in-person learning.

At the start of the school year, Ray published an editorial in The Commercial Appeal stating that the district would be tracking how many students are logged on and engaged with learning platforms. 

Joris Ray:Using data to track and support SCS educators and students in virtual learning

The latest data available shows that by the end of the second week of school, about 92% of students were logged on to Microsoft Teams, the platform teachers use for learning. That data is preliminary, district officials stressed during the academic performance committee presentation in September, and would be more accurate once dropping "no-show" students, or students who wouldn't be enrolled with the district, later that month.

That preliminary data showed about 5,000 students hadn't picked up their student device by the end of the second week of school, and of those students, 3,000 of them had yet to log in to class. 

More:1 day. 17 Memphians. 6 months of COVID-19

The attendance rate hovered around 90% for the first two weeks of school, documents show. Preliminary data also showed that total district enrollment — how many students are enrolled in both traditional SCS schools and charter schools — dropped to about 108,000, down from 113,200 total students last year.

A virtual learning update was originally on an Oct. 5 committee agenda, but was removed due to potential inaccuracies with Teams data, Jerica Phillips, spokesperson for the district, said.

All of the district's data, though, will update to show students that are "attending" school through Teams. The district is still assessing data that would show student achievement or learning loss, Phillips said.

More:If not schools or home, where will SCS students learn? 'Virtual academies' are in works, YMCA says

In September, the state's department of education released data that projected a 50% decrease in proficiency rates in 3rd grade reading and a projected 65% decrease in proficiency in math. 

The state data comes from information provided by school districts as they assess students who are returning to school this fall as well as a report completed this summer by the department in partnership with NWEA, a research-based nonprofit organization, to predict what student performance might look like in light of school closures, according to Education Commissioner Penny Schwinn.

More:Tennessee students likely experienced 'significant' learning loss due to school closures this year, state says

The NWEA projections, and others, Chalkbeat has reported, are filling a gap where diagnostic tests from students may not exist yet. Tennessee educators and superintendents also called the data, which the state cited as a reason for schools to reopen, into question. 

At least one group, Better Student Outcomes Now, has launched an initiative to improve education outcomes for students in Tennessee during the pandemic. Composed of local education advocates and former Gov. Bill Haslam, the new initiative will raise awareness of strategies that could improve student achievement.

Tennessean reporter Meghan Mangrum contributed. 

Laura Testino covers education and children's issues for the Commercial Appeal. Reach her at laura.testino@commercialappeal.com or 901-512-3763. Find her on Twitter: @LDTestino