Biden holds 20-point lead in Texas, poll says

Former Vice President Joe Biden has opened up a commanding 20-point lead in the Texas Democratic primary, according to a CNN poll released Wednesday.

Among likely Democratic primary voters, 35% say they support Biden, compared with 15% for Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, 13% for Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts and 9% for South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg.

Julián Castro, former U.S. housing secretary and the remaining Texan in the race, garnered just 3% of likely primary voters’ support in his home state.

Biden had 23% support in a University of Texas/Texas Tribune poll in November. Former U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke of El Paso, who registered 14% support in that survey, and U.S. Sen. Kamala Harris of California have since dropped out of the race.

But Jim Henson, director of the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas, said it’s unlikely that Biden picked up a majority of O’Rourke and Harris supporters, and it’s too early to know where their supporters will go, he said.

“This is still a race where name recognition is driving some of the responses,” Henson said. “What we’re seeing is name recognition more than any other powerful driving force.”

In potential general election matchups, the CNN poll found Biden performed the best against President Donald Trump in Texas.

Trump edged Biden by 1 point in Texas — within the margin of error — the poll found.

CNN also surveyed voters in California, finding a much closer primary race there, with Biden at 21%, Sanders at 20% and Warren at 17%. Democrats held double-digit leads against Trump in California.

Texas and California hold primaries on March 3, among the 16 Super Tuesday contests. First come nominating contests in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina.

The CNN polls were conducted Dec. 4-8 by telephone among random samples of adults in each state. In Texas, the margin of error is plus or minus 3.4 percentage points for 1,205 adults surveyed. There was an error margin of plus or minus 6.6 points for the 327 likely Democratic primary voters surveyed.

Garry Mauro, the former Texas land commissioner and Democratic candidate for governor who chaired Hillary Clinton’s 2016 campaign in Texas, said the poll shows that Texas is up for grabs.

“It’s pretty obvious that Texas right now is in play,” Mauro said.

Biden was the only candidate within the margin of error when stacked up against Trump.

Trump edged Warren, Buttigieg and Sanders by 7 points in the poll.

“I think at this point, most of the other candidates don’t have a real image in Texas,” Mauro said. “The one who is most familiar is Vice President Joe Biden.”

But Chris Wilson, a national Republican pollster who worked for the Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, and Gov. Greg Abbott campaigns in 2016, said the CNN poll shows that Texas Democrats will struggle “if they cave to the far left of their party” and nominate a candidate such as Warren or Sanders.

“That would foreclose basically any chance of putting states like Texas in play and, as we've seen in other recent polls, put them way behind in key states like Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania,” Wilson said.

Meanwhile, Texas Democratic officials point to Trump’s recent visits to the state as evidence that he’s concerned Texas is in danger of flipping from red to blue.

“Texas is the biggest battleground state. Poll after poll shows the same result: This election is razor-thin. Trump is terrified,” Manny Garcia, executive director of the Texas Democratic Party, said in a statement. “Without Texas, Trump cannot win this election.”

Biden and Warren are the only Democraticcandidates with a Texas state director.

On Saturday, Warren’s campaign will open its first offices in San Antonio and Austin. The campaign will host training sessions to show supporters how to get involved.

Jenn Longoria, Warren’s Texas state director, has hired more than two dozen full-time senior staffers and organizers across the state, according to the campaign.