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>> Addicting the next U.S. President to guessing by how much it to combating has surged in popularity over recent years. And with Biden's recent to make a buck, all our people wagering on when the president's just going to drop out of the race, they assume he's out, according to Pauline Market, a leading bookmaker. 64% of voters believe Biden will step down and are now betting Vice President Kamala Harris has better odds than Biden to win this election at last check this afternoon. That's on. Biden dropping out. We're at $0.64 a share. I have no clue what that means. And I hope about to find out. Never anything. This what we have you're our only hope, pillows, associate professor of media and public affairs at George Washington University.
>> Okay. How popular is this? What is it? Is it legal?
>> It's very popular of that elections in American politics
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since and politicians existed betting markets have only become popularized with. We have as we all have access, more information. We're getting patients and it's that really entirely legal and government looking into Understandably the government to make the Lakers are a bit nervous when folks are a lot of money and gambling elections. Elections can be. Corrupt enough as it is without that and get into
>> We'll to the legality illegality questions of it a bit for since things. Right? Exactly what? We'll get to that, too. But curious to know how often are these markets right there? Prediction something we talk about early half of right. This it's mixed bag. The markets really got it wrong. This 2022 midterm elections. Largely got the 2016 election long, but they tend to a lot of other about right. You can of a market like this is it? It's the wisdom of crowds ready to get a whole lot of people sifting through all of a bunch of data. Any bias usual sort of
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washout in the mix and then just the core best thing. We'll be the ones to rise to the top You guys, individual pundits like me, do individual pundits like me and that adequate to outcomes. Tilt at Lock is found experts are roughly the same success for his monkey stormed are close to predict the outcomes. So the hope to mark its in collective wisdom will be better at it. Sometimes there are some tension. Monkeys do other things, too. So maybe darts of the they you
>> I will say the very first words on the prompter here that I wrote wisdom of crowds. And you just said that crowds can also be double in instances. So conventional wisdom versus, you know how, you know, you can kind of crowdsourced the strength of Kamala Harris, for instance, right now has surprised the commentary in this country. But the numbers show she's actually fairly strong among Any other surprises you find in the markets? I'm actually
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surprised by that at all. We tend to like the thing we don't have.
>> A lot. And then we get it. We investigated right? Democrats things. He saw this in 1976. Jimmy Carter and Ted Kennedy. There's a famous story that somebody said you won the lottery. What your first thing you do said boat when a lot of in the first hire a lawyer. All right. Harris showed him with the first thing you vote for. She jumps should look at the back on this Biden guy. He should something going on. You are getting into the wind right markets work what to do to sort through. We're trying to guess what in Joe Biden's hit. I'm not sure that a whole lot of people are any better at that than one person is to do. You mentioned how you know what? It's a mixed bag when it comes to whether these things predictive of what can happen. But what is it that we can glean from prediction markets like these that we can't from, let's say traditional polling.
>> Polling and market trying to get the same thing with the underlying sense of a broader
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sentiment. They're trying to take a snapshot of how people are feeling about. But what's going to happen like polling? That's people feel about. What's going to happen now predicting based on that. What we think is going to happen next, which actually going to happen to We just kind trying to sort through the same thing, right? Ms get a sense of what actually hear holes are elections. Predictions are that Is comes us to view the knockout stages of the Copa America. Instead of watching that the tournament from a local bar somewhere. I think it can help us that, you know, reminding us of the Democratic voters are a little bit nervous about what President Biden standing this point in the race. And have to show we we'll see how the markets respond after his well publicized interview, George Stephanopoulos aims to the Sunday shows this weekend. We'll check in again next week and see how the markets are feeling. Have a prison cell.
>> Could the 63 seats could be $0.65. Lot of like the presence of money. Peter, back in May, apparently the Commodity Futures Trading Commission proposed a rule to
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ban betting on American elections. What you say have been happening for a really long time. As of right now, you can still bet on Biden dropping out by July 31st or if he gets another cold this week, we're say acknowledging having a cold or whatever.
>> Will this eventually be banned?
>> It hard to predict. We could go to the market find out the market thinks about that. Think probably with its financial incentive. My guess is it'll be banned because there's just too much that temptation and to add one more wrinkle into elections. Are have? We can wrinkles, right? It ought to be about nothing with it person you want in the White The governor's mansion of the state House reflects our values and Cancun Saul problems actually faces every day. It's much for You too much nonsense flopping around. You actual money to the outcome people are. You intended act on? Mothers are acting on their cell financial interests rather than what's best for the country. The community. It's I mean, local
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dog catchers going through the race so they get their 64 Diego. I somewhere. I don't think Biden needs. I think he's in for the long haul pillows, associate professor
Scripps News The National Report
Thank you, Peter
A Great segment!
Julia
A Great segment!
Julia
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