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Biden, Warren lead in new 2020 Texas poll, but what happens to Dem race now that O’Rourke has quit?

The new survey underscores the up-for-grabs nature of the Democratic White House race in Texas

WASHINGTON – Former Vice President Joe Biden and Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren lead among Democratic voters in Texas – a critical Super Tuesday primary state – according to a University of Texas/Texas Tribune poll released on Monday.

But what will happen now that former El Paso Rep. Beto O’Rourke has dropped out of the 2020 White House race?

The survey was conducted before O’Rourke quit his campaign Friday -- an exit that came after he struggled to recapture the Beto-mania that helped him come within 3 percentage points of completing a historic upset last year in his Senate race against Texas Sen. Ted Cruz.

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That means the 14% that O’Rourke tallied in the new Texas survey is up for grabs.

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Those voters could pivot toward frontrunners like Biden (23%), Warren (18%) or Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders (12%). Or toward someone in the next tier of contenders, like Indiana mayor Pete Buttigieg (6%), California Sen. Kamala Harris (5%) or businessman Andrew Yang (4%).

Or perhaps even toward the other Texan in the race: former San Antonio mayor Julián Castro, whose 2% result in the new home-state survey crystallizes his long odds.

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The University of Texas/Texas Tribune poll – conducted Oct. 18-27 over the internet – underscores the undecided nature of the Democratic White House race in Texas, which is a delegate-rich state early on the primary calendar.

It also helps explain why O’Rourke may have decided to pull the plug on his campaign.

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While he entered the White House race as a clear favorite in Texas, he had not led a poll in his home state since late July, according to FiveThirtyEight. And the trend was getting worse, with the 14% in the latest survey marking one of his worst results.

No matter who ends up solidifying the top primary spot in Texas, Democrats could be in trouble in the general election.

While much has been made of Texas’ newfound standing as a battleground state – in large part because of O’Rourke’s Senate run last year – the new poll showed that none of the Democratic contenders would beat President Donald Trump in head-to-head matchup today.

That result reflects Texas’ decades-long standing as a GOP stronghold.

Sanders would do best, per the new survey, losing to Trump 40% to 45%. Biden would lose 39% to 46%. Warren would lose 39% to 46%. Castro would lose 33% to 46%. O’Rourke, if he were still in the race, would lose 41% to 47%.

The University of Texas/Texas Tribune poll also took a look at the crowded Democratic field vying to take on Republican Sen. John Cornyn and found the Senate race to also be up for grabs.

None of the Democratic contenders have been heard of by more than a quarter of Democratic voters in Texas, despite candidates like state Sen. Royce West, former U.S. Rep. Chris Bell and Houston City Council member Amanda Edwards having held office in some capacity.

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Texas Democrats, as a result, appear to be taking their time in sizing up the field.

Asked who would get their vote today in the Senate primary, nearly 60% of Democratic voters said they didn’t know or that they “haven’t thought enough about it to have an opinion." Only Air Force veteran and former U.S. House candidate MJ Hegar reached double digits in the poll with 12%.

Those unsettled standings are sure to stoke speculation about whether O’Rourke may take another stab at the Senate race in Texas, though the Democrat and his advisers have been adamant that he’s not interested in joining the fray.

The University of Texas/Texas Tribune poll surveyed 1,200 registered voters in Texas. The overall margin of error is plus or minus 2.83 percentage points, while the margin of error for the Democratic primary results is plus or minus 4.21 percentage points.