Super Tuesday Result if States Voted Today, per Latest Polls

Democrat and Republican presidential election campaigns are cranking into gear ahead of a key round of primary elections next month.

"Super Tuesday" on March 4 will see both Republican and Democrat voters in a number of states decide on the candidate they would prefer to represent their interests in the 2024 presidential elections.

Currently, President Joe Biden and Donald Trump are most likely set for a rematch of the 2020 election, but some of the states include independent voters in their ballots that could potentially change the outcome or signal a change in momentum for candidates like Republican Nikki Haley.

Republicans

Among Republican voters, Trump has a massive lead in the polls over his nearest and now only rival, Haley. An average of primary polls recorded by analysis website FiveThirtyEight shows Trump in the lead with 75.8 percent of the vote. The former South Carolina governor trails on just 17.4 percent.

None of the recent polling accepted by the likes of FiveThirtyEight shows Haley in the lead ahead of Super Tuesday in any state.

Peter Loge, director of the School of Media and Public Affairs at George Washington University, said: "Trump will probably be the Republican nominee."

Haley's best chance of an upset on Super Tuesday could be in Massachusetts. Here, a Suffolk University poll of 1000 registered Massachusetts voters put Haley at 38.3 percent. Trump still led at 55.4 percent while just under 5.6 percent said they were undecided.

A total of 30 percent of those who responded to the survey said they were registered Democrats, however. Just nine percent were registered Republicans with 52.1 percent listed as independent voters.

Independent voters could play a part in the Massachusetts primary as they are allowed to vote in the state primary ballots.

Haley won around 60 percent of independent voters in New Hampshire in January, won comfortably by Trump despite it being tipped as one of Haley's best chances of success in the primaries.

The Suffolk University result is Haley's best poll. One Morning Consult poll taken of 274 likely voters from January 23 to February 4 has Trump 41 points ahead.

Around 65 percent of 304 likely voters also said they preferred Trump in a poll sponsored by the Fiscal Alliance Foundation from February 3-6. Haley took less than 28 percent.

Massachusetts could be Haley's best hope, but the chances of an upset look slim.

In Texas, the former president is ahead by an average of 62 points from polls taken of likely voters this year.

The most recent survey, another Morning Consult poll taken from January 23 to February 4 recorded Trump at 84 percent, a remarkable 69 points in front of his opponent.

Newsweek has collected data from FiveThirtyEight and polling to gain a wide picture of polls in primary states this year.

• Alabama - Trump leads by average of 67.5 points from two polls
• California - Trump leads by average of 54 points from four polls
• Massachusetts - Trump leads by average of 33.6 points from three polls
• Minnesota - Trump leads by 62 points, according to one poll
• North Carolina - Trump leads by average of 53.3 points from three polls
• Oklahoma - Trump leads by 77 points, according to one poll
• Tennessee - Trump leads by 63 points, according to one poll
• Texas - Trump leads by an average of 62 points from four polls
• Utah - Trump leads Haley by 27 points, but 13 percent went to DeSantis
• Vermont - Trump leads by 28 points, according to one poll
• Virginia - Trump leads by 59 points, according to one poll

Newsweek was unable to obtain head-to-head polling results in other Super Tuesday states.

The former governor does fare better in South Carolina than she does nationally but is still polling at an average of 30.3 percent of the vote compared to Trump's 66.1 percent.

A CBS News/YouGov poll from February 5-10 said Trump is favored by 65 percent of South Carolinians, similar to polling results so far. The same poll said only 13 percent of Trump voters indicated they might switch their choice, compared to 22 percent of Haley's support in the poll.

Voters in South Carolina can choose to vote in one primary so, in theory, Democrat voters can vote in the Republican primary election in the Palmetto State.

The South Carolina primaries are before Super Tuesday instead hosted on February 24. They are, however, potentially significant ahead of the votes on March 4 given that Haley could use it as a signal to drop out to try and make her case for winning over independent voters.

Haley has stayed in the race, however, and this week continued her attacks on Trump after the former president questioned why her husband, a serving military officer, was not at her rallies.

"Someone who continually disrespects the sacrifices of military families has no business being commander in chief," Haley said.

Trump has since said on his Truth Social media platform he thinks Major Michael Haley "should come back home to help save her dying campaign."

Haley's refusal to concede, despite her opponent's suggestions she should, also comes despite negative polling in her home state.

Jennifer Nicoll Victor said Haley is attempting to "cement herself as THE Trump alternative in the Republican Party."

Trump currently faces 91 criminal charges across four criminal indictments. He denies them all and says they are politically motivated, but it remains to be seen if the trials will occur and conclude before the November election.

A potential criminal conviction could have consequences for Trump's candidacy. The Supreme Court is also set to rule on whether states can strike him from the ballot and if he is immune from prosecution for alleged crimes committed while he was president.

"Should Trump falter or face legal barriers, or some other situation that impedes his nomination or office holding, Haley is positioning herself as an alternative," Victor said.

Loge added: "Even knowing she will likely lose badly in the coming primaries, she is positioning herself as the obvious post-Trump candidate. Post-Trump could mean if he goes to jail or otherwise can't continue in the race, or in 2028 when neither Biden nor Trump will run again."

Newsweek has approached the Haley and Trump campaigns for comment.

Democrats

President Joe Biden is the clear favorite in polling for Super Tuesday states and in the national picture among Democrats.

In polling averages, Biden is way ahead with an average of 71.1 percent of the average primary polling votes as of February 14.

State-by-state polling is harder to come by due to the incumbent president's being something of the de-facto choice for parties during a bid for a second term.

Just one candidate aside from Biden remains following the suspension of author Marianne Williams' campaign earlier this month, but Minnesota Congressman Dean Phillips has so far failed to significantly eat into the president's polling lead.

Newsweek has approached the Biden campaigns for comment.

In California, Biden has an average lead of 69.5 points from two polls of likely voters this year. Neither Williamson nor Phillips was able to score over 10 percent.

Massachusetts painted a similar picture, two February polls of 302 and 390 voters by the Fiscal Alliance Foundation and Suffolk University respectively each had Biden with a 65-point lead.

Of polls in Minnesota and Texas, the smallest gap between Biden and Phillips was a 59-point lead for the 46th president in a poll by the University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs of 534 likely voters.

Democratic primary polling of Phillips and Biden in the Super Tuesday states of Alabama, Arkansas, California Colorado, Maine, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont and Virginia were not found.

What might change the feeling among Democratic voters is questions over Biden's age.

A poll from the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research released in August said 77 percent of voters thought Biden was too old for a second term. That was the view shared by 69 percent of Democrats who responded to the poll.

Age might be a factor for Trump, too, although the former president insists he is in excellent cognitive condition. Trump will be 78 at the start of a new term if he were to win.

A January poll of 1,000 registered voters by NBC News found that Trump—who has also made a number of campaign gaffes - is ahead of Biden by 23 points on the question of if either candidate has "the necessary physical and mental health to be president."

In a press conference at the White House earlier on February 8, Biden responded angrily to a report by Department of Justice Special Counsel Robert Hur into his handling of classified documents. It that said the president "appeared to have significant limitations" regarding his memory.

Phillips, regarding the report, said to Newsweek:

"Finding that a sitting president 'willfully retained and disclosed classified materials' but that he was too 'sympathetic' and 'elderly with a poor memory' to be held accountable should shock us all.

"As much as we have sympathy for the President's condition, we cannot forget that the safety and prosperity of our nation must be the priority.

"We shouldn't forget that Donald Trump rode into the White House in 2016 after viciously attacking his opponent about her mishandling of classified emails. We can't let that happen again.

"It's time to remove the blinders. This report has all but handed Donald Trump the election if Joe Biden is the nominee, and we must act on that for the sake of democracy and our nation."

The Biden administration and campaign has continued to maintain the president is fit and healthy. In a letter attached to the report, Biden's lawyers added: "There is ample evidence from your interview that the president did well in answering your questions about years-old events over the course of five hours."