Experts weigh in on possible brokered Dem convention, risks of bailing on Biden

HUNT VALLEY, Md. (TND) — A special counsel report into President Joe Biden's handling of classified documents released earlier this month raised questions about the 81-year-old president's memory, as well as whether Biden can hold up to the rigors of a re-election campaign. Now, some analysts are floating a new possible route if the president is unable or unwilling to continue a long, grueling horse race.

In a recent podcast, New York Times columnist Ezra Klein laid out what he said are the risks of another Biden campaign, arguing that the president -- at 81 -- is probably not going to give the Democratic Party the best chances of beating any Republican nominee, let alone former President Donald Trump. Klein also cited Biden's polling numbers, which show Biden hovering in the low-40s.

As a way of circumventing a possible loss in November, Klein believes the Democratic National Committee should consider the possibility of a brokered convention. According to Klein, that would require Biden to collect the 1,895 delegates necessary to win the Democratic nomination before releasing them during the Democratic National Convention held in August.

And once committed, the delegates Biden racks up during the state primaries will cast their votes for him at the Chicago convention. They are effectively tied to him unless he bows out. A brokered convention is then the most likely scenario given time constraints.

But it would take something pretty extreme for his delegates to desert him," Elaine Kamarck told the CBC. "The delegates are not going to turn against Joe Biden at the convention.

Kamarck explained the process of a brokered convention during Klein's podcast.

Switching candidates this far into the primary election is not an option for those with deep concerns. While just a handful of the total delegates have been awarded so far, filing deadlines for primary ballot access close in all but six states by the end of this month. Most of the delegate haul will come by March 5, Super Tuesday.

HISTORY OF A BROKERED CONVENTION

For the Democratic Party, the process to nominate a president hasn't always gone through the primaries and caucuses. Before 1972, nominees were typically decided during the convention, and by top party bosses. That all changed after 1968 when Hubert Humphrey was nominated to replace former President Lyndon B. Johnson.

Activists, many of whom believed Humphrey would continue the Vietnam War, protested outside that year's convention in Chicago. The demonstrations continued for days, with some in the media arguing law enforcement effectively incited a police riot.

Afterward, the DNC instituted several reforms. The changes effectively gave more power to voters during primary races, thus rendering the convention a symbolic capstone to the nominating process. As a result, many states changed their election laws.

Those changes prompted the Republican Party to follow suit, giving much more power to primary voters over party bosses.

RISKS OF A BROKERED CONVENTION

Persuading Biden to drop out on the day of the convention would create mass pandemonium, according to Caitlin Jewitt, an associate political science professor at Virginia Tech.

"The Democratic Party has spent 60 plus years transforming this process and handing it over to the people," Jewitt told The National Desk. Casting aside those votes in exchange for a different candidate would create "chaos," particularly if there is no clear successor to Biden, she added.

Biden could toss his weight behind Vice President Kamala Harris, though there is risk there given that her polling numbers are nearly as low as the man she would be replacing. California Gov. Gavin Newsom, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and Sen. Cory Booker, D-N.J., are all possible alternatives alongside Harris.

While time would be short for such candidates to jockey for position, they would also have to contend with a media landscape vastly different than one that existed before 1972.

In the age of social media, where information and misinformation flow faster than at any other time in history, the problems would compound on top of one another, said Jewitt, whose work focuses mainly on presidential primaries and caucuses.

I think it has the potential to fracture the party even more because various groups can express their dissatisfaction with the process as it unfolds, in real-time," Jewitt said.

She added: "There is an argument to be made that maybe the party should have more of a say, but they shouldn't take that away from the people in the middle of a nomination process."

WOULD BIDEN DROP OUT?

Barring a severe medical episode, or some other major controversy, the president is unlikely to step aside, according to Peter Loge, associate professor at George Washington University's School of Media. He told CBC that no politician bails on a re-election bid so close to the end.

Loge argued that's tantamount to Biden telling delegates: "'You know what? I could be the Democratic nominee. I could be president for another four years. That's a sweet gig. You know what? I think I'd rather watch television.'"

WHAT NOW?

There is an argument for moving back toward the old process, Jewitt said. The new nominating system, while providing average Americans and voters a say in the matter, doesn't always lead to a good outcome in terms of candidates who understand the mechanics of government and policy.

"They are not necessarily choosing the candidate who would make the best president," Jewitt argued. "They are choosing the most charismatic candidate who is good at campaigning. Those are two different things." That gets at the heart of the matter for Ezra Klein, who believes Biden is a good president but not a great campaigner.

And in the end, this is the system the Democratic Party created. Democrats created a unity reform commission after the 2016 election, a controversial election regarding the DNC's reported treatment of Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt. Those changes created more transparency and attempted to increase trust in the nominating process.

For the party to try and encourage Biden to step down and replace the voters with the delegates would not sit well with many, Jewitt argued.

"The delegates deciding at the convention without the voters weighing in would really destroy that trust," she added.