New COVID-19 risk tool aims to help Nashville families gauge when schools will reopen
State provides little guidance to districts struggling to remain open amid surge in cases, staffing challenges
Meghan MangrumMetro Nashville Public Schools unveiled a new tool for determining whether it is safe for schools to reopen based on the current state of the coronavirus in Davidson County.
The "thermometer," as Director Adrienne Battle called it during a Metro Nashville Board of Education meeting Tuesday evening, consists of a weighted formula that uses the same metrics the school district and the city have been using throughout the pandemic to calculate and show of the risk of COVD-19, according to district officials.
The thermometer presents the COVID-19 risk level on a scale from 0 to 10 based on the city’s seven-day positive test rate, a seven-day average of new cases per 100,000 residents and the transmission rate, with 0 being the best and 10 being the worst.
RELATED:All Metro Nashville Public Schools students to stay remote after Thanksgiving
On Tuesday, just a day after Battle announced schools will not reopen after the Thanksgiving break and students will instead learn remotely at home through the rest of the semester, the district's COVID risk score was 8.8.
A score from 0-3 is the safest and indicates the risk is low. At this stage, students who choose will be able to return to school in-person.
Between 3-7, the district will take a blended approach with some grades or students allowed in-person, prioritizing students with disabilities and the youngest learners. A 7-10 indicates “extremely concerning territory.” At this stage, all students will likely be learning remotely at home.
Tuesday, Nov. 24’s metrics on the district's new tool include:
- Transmission rate: 1.11
- Seven-day average of new cases per 100K residents: 67.5
- Seven-day positive test rate: 10.6
The formula weights some metrics differently, with the number of new cases per 100,000 residents making up 60% and the other two metrics each making up 20% of the overall calculation, spokesperson Sean Braisted said in an email to The Tennessean.
The district uses the same metric available found at asafenashville.org.
Though the district has consistently reported the number of new reported COVID-19 cases among students and staff each week since schools reopened, that metric is not included in the tool's formula.
BY THE NUMBERS:Metro Nashville Public Schools report 103 new COVID-19 cases last week, 788 students and staff in quarantine
The district plans to notify families of the new tool Wednesday and will begin updating the tool on its website every weekday.
The new tool comes after feedback from families and community members who have expressed confusion or complained about a lack of transparency about how the district makes decisions regarding when to reopen schools, Battle told board members Tuesday.
Some vocal parents, including the coalition Let Nashville Parents Choose, have consistently called for clearer metrics for opening and closing since the district first made the decision to begin the school year virtually.
In August, Battle said the district would re-evaluate the decision after Labor Day, at which time her team pushed the majority of reopening to after fall break (with the exception of students with disabilities). On Oct. 13, students in pre-K- 2 returned to class, with grades 3-4 returning a week later.
But middle school students never made it back to the classroom. The district halted its phased reopening on Oct. 23 after a recommendation from the school board and as COVID-19 cases jumped across the city and state.
Though school officials have seen little indication of a significant spread of COVID-19 within school buildings, Metro Schools, like the districts across Tennessee, have struggled to keep doors open due to staffing challenges brought on by teacher quarantines and isolations.
Several Middle Tennessee districts have closed individual schools, extended Thanksgiving break, or even closed the entire district due to teacher shortages in recent weeks.
Gov. Bill Lee and Education Commissioner Penny Schwinn acknowledged school districts' concerns during the governor's weekly COVID-19 update Tuesday afternoon, but continued to emphasize the importance of in-person learning.
More than 70% of students are learning in-person, according to Lee, though the state's two largest school districts, Metro Schools in Nashville and Shelby County Schools in Memphis, remain virtual.
"We all know that kids do much better in person than they do online," Lee said. "Districts do have decisions to make on their own. ... We want to support school districts to make the decisions they need to make."
But Lee offered little guidance or recommendations for districts that are struggling with keeping school doors open and classrooms staffed, including what role a COVID-19 vaccine will play. An effective vaccine is something many families and educators are counting on to help get students back in the classroom.
When asked if he would support a COVID-19 vaccine requirement for K-12 public school students, Lee said he did not foresee issuing such a mandate.
"(Vaccines) are going to be very important for us in this state to curb the spread of the virus and ultimately be able to handle it," Lee said. "But vaccines are a choice. People have the choice and will have the choice as to whether or not they should take that vaccine. That will be our strategy."
Battle and board members didn't provide further information about the district's efforts to reopen schools next semester during Tuesday's board meeting.
Next week, the district will launch a new survey for families to update their preference for in-person or virtual learning for the second semester.
Families initially selected their preference in September, with the district promising to allow families a chance to change their preference for the second semester. The decision will be final for the remainder of the school year.
The survey will be available from Nov. 30 to Dec. 4, according to Battle's email.
Battle did emphasize the district will likely follow a similar phased approach to reopening after winter break, especially for students with disabilities, following a question for board member Freda Player-Peters Tuesday.
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Meghan Mangrum covers education in Nashville for the USA TODAY NETWORK — Tennessee. Contact her at mmangrum@tennessean.com. Follow her on Twitter @memangrum.