Diane Francis: The 8 Republican dissidents that could bring America to its knees
Last week, eight members of Americaâs âFreedom Caucusâ turfed out the Speaker of the House of Representatives for the first time in history and brought legislative business to a halt.
In the roiling American system, this is business as usual, except that the acrimonious gridlock underway now may lead to a government shutdown in five weeks time. And that event, depending on its duration, could cause grave economic and geopolitical damage for the rest of the world. This is because the United Statesâ system, unlike Canadaâs, has no backstop to prevent a financial meltdown if there is a lengthy legislative paralysis.
In parliamentary systems, a logjam would be broken up because it would result in a vote of no-confidence and a snap election. And even then, Canadaâs governor general can issue âspecial warrantsâ to obtain funds that are âurgently neededâ for the public good if Parliament has been dissolved. This means that pensions, military and other operations would not be disrupted as a result of a legislative deadlock.
By contrast, the U.S. has no such safeguards. A Congress that was paralyzed for a lengthy period of time would be a disaster for Americans, and everyone else.
The House is hopelessly divided. A group of eight right-wingers led by Republican Matt Gaetz led the charge to oust Republican Speaker Kevin McCarthy last week. And moderate Republicans did not intervene. This means that, as things now stand, these eight Republicans can hold up the legislative agenda of the entire country, and ensure they essentially hold the balance of power in the House. (The Democratic bloc has 212 votes and the Republican bloc minus the eight dissidents has 213 votes.)
âThe institution failed today,â said McCarthy after he was ousted. âIf you allow eight people to continue to do that with no consequences â no oneâs going to be successful.â
The impact will be dire unless a new Speaker is chosen who can manage the mess. This will take time, which will undoubtedly hold up legislation on spending, the immigration crisis at the southern border and support for Ukraineâs war effort against Russia. None of these issues will be addressed if Gaetzâs gang stays united.
They are not just throwing up the bombs; they are blowing up the party,
Sarah Binder
As this plays out, market players worry about budget allocations and the enhanced possibility of a full-on government shutdown. âThey are not just throwing up the bombs; they are blowing up the party,â Sarah Binder, a political science professor at George Washington University, told the New York Times. âIt is not really clear how to appease them or secure their votes.â
The fact that the next allocation for Ukraineâs defence has been postponed, and is increasingly in doubt, plays right into Russian President Vladimir Putinâs hands. Inside the U.S., a government shutdown would stop pay to military personnel and border agents, which would have disastrous consequences on Americaâs southern border. The mayor of Laredo, Texas, was quoted as saying that a âcatastrophic situationâ awaits if spending stops. And market experts say a lengthy shutdown will create uncertainty and stock market volatility.
Karl Rove, Republican honcho and backroom operator, believes the Gaetz gambit and Freedom Caucus shenanigans will backfire. âA stupid, needless government shutdown looms,â wrote Rove in the Wall Street Journal. âThis Chaos Caucusâs leader, Floridaâs reckless Rep. Matt Gaetz, is practically giddy at the prospect of a shutdown.âŠ
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âStrategically, itâs foolish. Democrats will insist on significant concessions to reopen the government. The shutdown could go on far longer than its advocates predict, and each additional day will provoke more public anger at the GOP.â
Such brinkmanship could take weeks or possibly months to play out, unless cooler heads prevail or a new Speaker is able to collect enough votes to pass a budget. That would be in the best interests of the world, not just America.
Financial Post