What to read to understand international relations

“THE WORLD today is undergoing great changes, the likes of which we have not seen for 100 years.” This observation by Xi Jinping, China’s president, may exaggerate, but he is surely right that international relations are changing more now than at any time since the second world war. The “unipolar moment” of 1990-2010, when America had no rivals, is over. China presents a military, economic and technological challenge more pervasive than that mounted by the Soviet Union. In some ways the world is reverting to the disorder of the cold war, except that, unlike the Soviet Union, China does not champion, or even believe in, universal values. The two sides trade far more than the cold-war antagonists did. Countries allied to neither, such as Brazil, India and Saudi Arabia, are playing more important roles than during the cold war.

Alas, Mr Xi’s “great changes” await their historians. Good histories take time to write and the rivalry between America and China is comparatively new. It sharpened in 2022-23, when China’s ally, Russia, invaded Ukraine and America imposed sanctions on some technology exports to China. How the rivalry will play out is uncertain. America is caught between a Bidenesque desire for global leadership and Trumpian isolationism; China may precipitate a world war by invading Taiwan; Russia’s regime could gain something from its aggression against Ukraine—or implode. Tomorrow’s world may be defined less by bipolar rivalry than by several competing spheres of interest, a version of the 19th century’s tensions. No wonder historians are holding off. Meanwhile, these five books illuminate separate aspects of today’s geopolitics.