The next election is more than 14 months away, but every analyst who studies the data is coming to the same conclusion: That contest — a likely rerun between Joe Biden and Donald Trump — will be very close. Democrats start with a small advantage in the electoral map, but the latest national polls show the two contenders in a dead heat.
As Ronald Brownstein notes on CNN, all signs “point toward a 2024 presidential contest that will likely be decided by a tiny sliver of voters in a rapidly shrinking list of swing states realistically within reach for either party.” Kyle Kondik, who runs Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, tells Spectrum News: “As of right now, we’re sort of expecting a lot of continuity from 2016 and 2020 in 2024.”
Steven Roberts teaches politics and journalism at George Washington University. His new book is “Cokie: A Life Well Lived.” He can be contacted by email at stevecokie@gmail.com.
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