A new report warns Kern County agriculture will face tough challenges in the decades ahead as climate change makes irrigation water scarcer and weather conditions more variable and intense.

The study concludes these hurdles "ultimately challenge the ability to maximize production while ensuring profitability." But it also predicts impacts will vary by crop, with almond production benefiting somewhat while growers of pistachios, grapes, oranges and carrots face overall difficult conditions.

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THE LONG-TERM FORECAST

A new report by the California Department of Food and Agriculture together with the San Diego-based Climate Science Alliance predicts not just more heat and less water but also greater variability and intensity of both. That suggests the coming decades will bring floods as well as worsening droughts and cold snaps followed by record-breaking heat waves.

Here are some related excerpts from the report:

Wildfire: "While wildfire is a naturally occurring process across Southern California’s landscapes and ecosystems, it is expected that wildfire risk in the coming years will heighten with increased temperatures and dry conditions coinciding with Santa Ana wind events.

Wind: "In addition to fueling many of the region’s large fires, strong wind events can also impact crops both directly through physical damage and indirectly through altered growing conditions and plant processes as well as pollination and fertilization. More research is needed for future projections."