Lyceum poll: Bernie is Trump’s toughest rival in Texas

Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders are running neck-and-neck among Texas Democrats, but it is the socialist U.S. senator from Vermont who poses the strongest challenge to President Donald Trump in the Lone Star state, according to a Texas Lyceum poll released Wednesday.

The poll show Sanders with 3 points fewer than Trump — 50% for Trump to Sanders’ 47% — which was better than the former vice president, who had 5 points fewer than Trump (51% to 46%). Massachusetts’ Sen. Elizabeth Warren had 8 points fewer (52% to 44%), as did former South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg (51% to 43%).

Among Democrats surveyed, Biden is at 28%, Sanders at 26%, Warren at 13%, former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg at 9%, Buttigieg at 6% and Minnesota’s Sen. Amy Klobuchar at 4%.

Sanders’ surprising strength in Texas upends the conventional wisdom that he is too far left to be a strong standard-bearer for Democrats in Texas and would hurt the party’s down-ballot chances to pick up congressional seats and enough state representative seats to flip the Texas House.

But the Lyceum poll found that Sanders has strengths that Biden and his other Democratic rivals don’t.

“Where Bernie separates himself from Biden in this survey is among young voters and among independents,” said Josh Blank, the Texas Lyceum’s research director.

“When we look at the Democratic nominating contest, Sanders was far and away the choice of voters under 30 — 57% selected Sanders,” Blank said. “That’s also confirmed in the head-to-head matchups with President Trump. So, while the other three Democrats tested — Biden, Warren and Buttigieg — split that vote about 60-40 in their favor, Sanders beats Trump 70 to 30 among voters 18 to 29 years old.”

“And while all three Democrats, aside from Sanders, lost independents to Trump in this poll, basically 60 to 30 or so with the rest of them unsure, Sanders is actually ahead of Trump with independents, 44 to 41,” Blank said.

Daron Shaw, the University of Texas government professor who with Blank conducts the Lyceum poll, cautioned that between now and any actual Sanders-Trump matchup, the Trump campaign would spend enormous sums of money attacking Sanders as a socialist outside the political mainstream.

“I would look at this as some sort of high-water mark for Sanders,” Shaw said.

The telephone survey of 1,000 adult citizens was conducted Jan. 10-19. The margin of error for the Democratic sample of 401 primary voters is plus or minus 4.89 percentage points. For the matchups with Trump, the sample of 520 likely general election voters had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.3 percentage points.

Sanders surging

The Lyceum poll results are consistent with Sanders’ recent momentum as the caucus and primary season is set to begin. Nationally, Biden remains on top, according to the RealClearPolitics polling average, with 28.4%. But Sanders is close behind at 23%, and Sanders is now leading in the first two nominating contests.

According to the RealClearPolitics averages, Sanders is edging Biden, 25% to 22%, in Iowa, where the 2020 voting begins with the caucuses Monday, and is leading Biden 24% to 16% in the New Hampshire primary, which comes eight days later on Feb. 11. Biden leads in Nevada, which holds caucuses on Feb. 19, 25% to 19%, and Biden has a huge 32% to 15% lead over Sanders, his next-closest rival, in South Carolina, which votes Feb. 29.

Then comes Super Tuesday, including primaries in California and Texas — the two biggest, most delegate-rich states — on March 3.

Blank, who is also research director at the Texas Politics Project at UT, noted that while Biden has remained on top over time in Texas, he also can’t seem to break away from the pack even as the field has dwindled.

In the October University of Texas/Texas Tribune poll, Biden was at 23% to Warren’s 18%, 14% for Beto O’Rourke, the party’s 2018 Senate nominee in Texas who has since dropped out of the presidential race, 12% for Sanders, and 6% for Buttigieg.

Senate race

The Lyceum survey also found that the crowded contest for the Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate in November remains a muddle with only one candidate — MJ Hegar of Round Rock — registering in double digits, and just barely, at 11%.

The winner likely will take on U.S. Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, who is seeking a fourth term and faces four little-known rivals in the GOP primary.

Hegar, who lost a close race for Congress to U.S. Rep. John Carter, R-Round Rock, in 2018, is followed by state Sen. Royce West, D-Dallas, at 8%, activist and organizer Cristina Tzintzún Ramirez at 7%, and former Houston City Council Member Amanda Edwards at 6%.

Then, right behind and all bunched together at 5% each, are Beaumont car dealer and pastor Michael Cooper, former Houston congressman Chris Bell, Victor Hugo Harris of Harlingen and Pasadena community organizer Sema Hernandez, who finished second in the 2018 Democratic Senate primary. Attorney and small business owner Annie “Mama” Garcia is at 4%, and Adrian Ocegueda, who works in private equity in Dallas, is at 2%. Two other candidates — D.R. Hunter and Jack Daniel Foster — didn’t register in the poll.

“Texas is always a difficult state for candidates to introduce themselves to the voters due to its sheer size and multiple, large media markets, but, in a year in which the political oxygen has been sucked up by the Democratic presidential primary and impeachment, it’s clearly been a major challenge for those seeking to take on John Cornyn to break through with the Texas electorate,” Blank said. “These new results confirm that it’s still anyone’s race.”

Texans remain divided down the middle over Trump, splitting along predictable party lines. Overall, 52% of adult Texans surveyed disapprove of the job the president is doing, while 47% approve.

Forty-four percent of Texans say the Senate should remove Trump from office, and 45% disagree. Forty-six percent of self-identified independents support removing Trump, while 31% oppose removing him.

Gov. Greg Abbott remains broadly popular, with 63% of Texans, including 43% of Democrats, approving of his job performance and 34% disapproving.

Correction: This story has been corrected to indicate that Elizabeth Warren is trailing Donald Trump in a general election match-up by 8 points, not 7 points, and that Amy Klobuchar is the choice of 3% not 4% of Texas Democrats.