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2020 Democratic Primaries

Does crisis change voting habits? Coronavirus could push voters to candidates they view as trustworthy

WASHINGTON – As news about coronavirus continues to touch every part of daily life, voters' thoughts on the Democratic primary election, and likely the general election, are already being influenced by the pandemic.

Recent polling has shown voters trust former vice president and Democratic president candidate Joe Biden over fellow candidate Sen. Bernie Sanders to handle a crisis like coronavirus. And history shows that how a sitting administration responds to a national tragedy can influence voters at the polls in the general election.

“I think on the Democratic side, there's a lot of Democrats, especially at a time when there's unease about a massive epidemic, there's less uncertainty about what Joe Biden will do,” said Eitan Hersh, associate professor in the Department of Political Science at Tufts University, adding that Biden would likely “reinstitute the Obama administration, more or less.”

Response to Trump's coronavirus address:Another market plunge, airport chaos, anxious lawmakers

Biden on the trail often argues that his campaign is fighting to "restore the soul of America," while Sanders frequently argues for the necessity of a political "revolution" in the United States

Prep for the polls: See who is running for president and compare where they stand on key issues in our Voter Guide

Hersh, a data analyst who studied voter behavior after the Sept. 11, 2001 terrorist attacks and recently released a book entitled "Politics Is For Power," noted the trust in Biden likely stems from him having already being a part of the Obama Administration and the thought that Biden would "basically just do what has already been done on the Democratic side."

A man uses hand sanitizer after voting in the presidential primary election at the the Summit View Church of the Nazarene on March 10 in Kansas City, Mo. The polling place served two precincts as voters who were scheduled to vote at a nearby senior living facility were directed to vote at the church after the facility backed out due to coronavirus concerns.

On the other hand, Hersh said, there are more "question marks" as to how Sanders would run an administration because he is "overtly more interested in changing things up." 

“I think (with) someone like Bernie Sanders there's a lot more uncertainty about what that would look like,” Hersh added. 

What do voters think?

Jennie Kuckertz, who specializes in psychology at McLean Hospital in Belmont, Mass., said the coronavirus pandemic could affect voting patterns, but there is not enough data yet to see just how.

Kuckertz said when there's a lot of uncertainty in a situation, sometimes people "look for comfort and what they already know and don't necessarily want a lot of change."

"I think other people may panic, and really become upset and very angry and really want something drastically different," Kuckertz added.

Recent surveying and Election Day polling give a glimpse into what voters are thinking as the campaign rolls along.

Amid the coronavirus outbreak Tuesday, Biden is seen as the candidate voters trust most to lead in a crisis. In Florida, Biden led Sanders 71%-23%; Biden led Sanders 64%-31% in Illinois; and in Arizona, 63% chose Biden compared to Sanders at 31%, according to a National Election Pool primary poll, which was conducted in lieu of exit polls.

For the March 10 primaries, 60% of voters in Missouri chose Biden as the candidate more trusted to handle a major crisis, according to exit polling from ABC News, while 25% chose Sanders. In Michigan, among same-day voters, Biden topped Sanders 51%-32, as being seen as more trusted in crisis. And in Washington state, according to preliminary data, Biden again topped Sanders, 44%-27%, when it came to trust in a crisis.

Biden swept all three states Tuesday night, and last week won both Missouri, Michigan and Washington, among other states. 

Another recent poll asked respondents who they believed was best equipped to handle the coronavirus outbreak and included a question with President Donald Trump. 

Exclusive poll:Americans are more worried about finances than their health amid coronavirus outbreak

According to the Newsy poll conducted by YouGov, 29% of Americans believe that Biden is best equipped to handle the coronavirus crisis, compared to Sanders at 18%. But the plurality of respondents (38%) chose neither.

However, both Democratic candidates were seen as better equipped to handle the pandemic over Trump. In a head-to-head match up, 40% said Biden was best equipped while 34% said Trump was. Between Sanders and Trump, there was a slimmer margin but the Democratic candidate still led, with Sanders at 37% and Trump at 35%.

The survey was conducted by YouGov on March 9-10 with 1,000 U.S. adults contacted, not just Democratic voters, like the ABC News exit poll. There is a margin of error of +/- 3.3 percentage points.

How can trauma or fear affect how people vote?

Voters' decisions in the general election could also be altered by how the Trump administration handles the pandemic.

One example, Hersh pointed to was former President George W. Bush, who saw his approval rating skyrocket after 9/11, when the country was being called on to unify and some voters felt Bush "was sending the right message."  

But Hersh also said approval for the Bush administration fell following their response to environmental catastrophes, like Hurricane Katrina, in 2005. During the 2006 midterms, Republicans in the House lost 22 incumbent seats and eight open Republican-held seats to Democrats. Although Bush's approval peaked at about 92% following his response to 9/11, it fell significantly amid the 2008 financial crisis and Iraq war to 28% in April 2008.

More:Pelosi pushing for swift passage of coronavirus bill despite Republican concerns

If the Trump Administration does not contain the coronavirus, Hersh warned, it could hurt the president in November.

"I think that if things don't go very well, people will blame the incumbent administration or Republicans ... for mismanagement and there'll be plenty of things to point to of what decisions that they might have made differently that might have resulted in less hardship," he said. 

The 2008 financial crisis is also seen as a worrisome event that likely shaped a presidential race. Then Sen.-Barack Obama's response to the crisis, which was the most serious economic crisis since the Great Depression, likely gave him a boost and he went on to win in November. 

While campaigning in 2008, Obama at times tied Republican nominee Sen. John McCain to Bush when it came to the financial crisis.

"This is what happens when you see seven years of incomes falling for the average worker while Wall Street is booming and declare, as Sen. McCain did earlier this year, that we've made great economic progress under George Bush," Obama said during a campaign stop at the time.

McCain, the late-Senator from Arizona, responded late to the crisis after suspending his campaign momentarily to return to Capitol Hill to join his colleagues in dealing with the crisis.

Daron Shaw, a politics professor at the University of Texas and a public polling expert, said the financial crisis was important because "a candidate was in a position to reassure the country that, in this case, he was sufficiently engaged and presidential to deal with it appropriately." 

"I think people did come away from that situation with a bit of reassurance about Obama," Shaw said.

Now the Democratic presidential candidates are in a similar situation. 

Both Biden and Sanders have responded to the pandemic and taken aim at times at the Trump administration's actions. During a national address Wednesday night, Trump announced a travel ban of non-U.S. citizens from EU countries for the next 30 days to try to slow the spread of the coronavirus.

More:How coronavirus is changing the 2020 presidential campaign for Trump, Biden and Sanders

The two Democratic candidates criticized that response in their own speeches Thursday.

“The travel restrictions based on favoritism and politics, rather than risk, will be counterproductive,” Biden said in a speech Thursday, adding that the ban could slow down the spread of coronavirus but it won't stop it.

“In this time of international crisis, it is clear to me at least, that we have an administration that is largely incompetent and whose incompetence and recklessness have threatened the lives of many, many people in our country,” Sanders said of the Trump Administration.

The candidates also laid out their own plans to combat the crisis, which include economic relief for families that have lost work due to the virus. In Biden's plan, the former vice president calls for more tests to be distributed and frequent updates about the pandemic from health care officials.

“This disease could impact every nation under any person on the planet,” Biden said Thursday. “We need a plan about how we’re going to aggressively manage it at home.”

Sanders calls on free treatments or vaccines when they become available, as well as calling for more health care professionals. He also plugged his signature policy, Medicare For All.

"In this moment, we need to make sure that in the future, after this crisis is behind us," Sanders said. "We build a health care system that makes sure that every person in this country is guaranteed the health care they need."

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