Free and fair elections, robust growth rates, a dramatic reduction in poverty — no one claimed Peruvian governance was perfect, but these accomplishments put it ahead of the South American pack. This stability also exempted Peru from the “pink tide” that swept leftist candidates to power across most of South America in the 2000s.
Not any longer. In last Sunday’s runoff, Pedro Castillo, the candidate of the far-left Perú Libre party, appeared to eke out the narrowest of victories — a margin of less than 1 percent — over right-wing Keiko Fujimori, the daughter of Peru’s last strongman. Fujimori alleged fraud and irregularities, although international observers described the vote as free and fair. Castillo, a schoolteacher who has never held elected office, will face a host of challenges and his government’s survival is, at best, uncertain. Political instability could put Peru’s democracy at risk.
The pandemic exposed deep rifts
For centuries, the divide between Peru’s wealthier, whiter and more urban coastal areas — which include the capital, Lima — and its poorer, more Indigenous, rural highlands has been steep. Amid the country’s post-2000 economic growth, professional opportunities and public services expanded more rapidly on the coast. The national poverty rate declined from more than 55 percent of the population in 2004 to 22 percent in 2015 — a bigger drop than the Latin American average — but 45 percent of rural Peruvians remained in poverty by 2015.
The global pandemic upended these economic gains. GDP plummeted by more than 11 percent, the worst decline in Latin America, save Venezuela. Peru now has the world’s highest per capita covid-19 death rate.
In one week last fall, Peru cycled through three presidents. The political crisis and economic concerns left Peruvians fearful and angry as the campaigning began. Candidates struggled to travel the country and voters could not discuss the candidates with each other. Peru’s weak political parties proved weaker than ever before. An immense field of 18 candidates failed to narrow to a smaller set of viable candidates, as it had in past elections.
Most Peruvians voted for more-or-less centrist candidates in the April 11 first round, but the large number of candidates split the vote. Two fringe candidates emerged on top with 19 percent and 13 percent, respectively.
Castillo capitalized on his leadership of a nationwide teachers union strike in 2017. Fujimori inherited the political networks built by her father, Alberto, during his 1990-2000 authoritarian government, which some Peruvians credit for kick-starting economic growth and crushing the far-left Shining Path insurgency.
With neither candidate claiming 20 percent in the first round, Peru headed for a runoff election. Yet the runoff didn’t resolve a major challenge after the multicandidate field produced two finalists who were at extremes.
The runoff forced Peruvians to choose ‘the lesser of two evils’
Broad swaths of Peruvians were fearful of both candidates. In the case of Fujimori, they feared a return to authoritarianism. Her father’s regime repressed political activists and looted billions; he is serving a 25-year sentence for these crimes.
Fujimori said she would pardon her father and offered only a tepid apology for his “mistakes.” After her narrow loss of the 2016 election to Pedro Pablo Kuczynski, her party obstructed both him and then his successor at every turn. Voters also were wary of the charges against Fujimori for money laundering and obstructing justice, for which she served nearly 17 months of pretrial detention.
Castillo stirred up different fears. His party identifies as Marxist-Leninist, calls for the nationalization of major industries and has praised Venezuela’s leader Nicolás Maduro. However, Castillo became the party’s candidate only at the last minute, after its platform had been written; the party’s founder, Vladimir Cerrón, a former regional governor, was blocked from candidacy due to corruption charges.
Hammering these concerns, Fujimori’s campaign claimed, repeatedly, that a Castillo victory would mean a Venezuela-style socialist dictatorship and economic chaos. Fear of the authoritarian left runs deep in Peru, which is home to more a million refugees from Venezuela. Peruvians also remember the destruction wrought by the Shining Path — especially after the military blamed an offshoot of the group to a massacre that left 16 dead last month.
During his campaign, Castillo distanced himself from Cerrón and the party’s extreme positions. Castillo promised to respect democracy and private property. He framed the vote as a fight against poverty and inequality and vowed to replace Peru’s constitution, drafted under Alberto Fujimori. His plans were short on specifics, however.
Political instability is almost certain
The Sunday vote proceeded smoothly. At 76 percent, turnout was not drastically lower than in past elections. If there was bias in the electoral playing field, it was against Castillo; several journalists claim editors pressured them to cast Castillo in a negative light.
Fujimori is almost certain to challenge the result for a long time, as she did after narrowly losing Peru’s 2016 runoff. Her team of lawyers is already planning to request nullification of results from pro-Castillo precincts where they claim irregularities occurred. Just as in the U.S. and elsewhere, if the election loser continues to charge fraud without evidence long after results are official, democratic institutions will lose legitimacy.
Castillo will face institutional pushback. In Congress, his party and its ally have only 32 percent of the seats, whereas Fujimori’s party and her allies have 45 percent. Peru’s military is unlikely to help Castillo bring about radical change.
Castillo has strong support across Peru’s southern highlands — his vote share in several highlands departments quadrupled Fujimori’s. But, unlike leftist presidents in neighboring countries, he does not have the backing of a well-organized political movement. Faced with these pressures, he could quickly moderate in office. In that case, however, he might lose the support of much of his party.
During the past 20 years, Peru put down democratic roots and managed steady economic growth, but the benefits were unequal. Castillo hopes to do much more to redress inequality and make the government serve people in rural areas. He has his work cut out for him.
Will Freeman (@WillGFreeman) is a PhD candidate in political science at Princeton University.
Cynthia McClintock (@CynthiaMcClin) is professor of political science and international affairs at George Washington University and the author of “Electoral Rules and Democracy in Latin America” (Oxford University Press, 2018).
