Indiana's congressional, state maps substantially favor Republicans, study says

A new study commissioned by an activist group shows what proponents of an independent redistricting process have been saying for years: Indiana's current state and congressional district maps substantially favor Republicans, and it's not just because of Indiana's geographic makeup. 

According to the study completed by Christopher Warshaw, a political science professor at George Washington University, Indiana's congressional and state maps are more biased in favor of Republicans than most other maps drafted in the past 50 years both in Indiana and across the country.

Women4Change, which commissioned the study, is using it to encourage Republican General Assembly leaders to be transparent and to draw "fair" maps, as they redraw Statehouse and congressional lines this fall. 

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"Moderates are squeezed out," Jay Yeager, an Indianapolis lawyer and a volunteer with Women4Change, said in a statement. "Our legislature can and often does ignore the views of over 40% of voters, public confidence suffers, and Indiana’s rank in voter turnout among states continues to languish in the bottom ten.”

The information is not all that shocking. Republicans took a supermajority in the Statehouse just after the 2011 maps were drawn. Now they control more than 73% of the seats in the General Assembly, giving them the power to control the legislative process. Meanwhile, since then, Democrats have only controlled two of nine congressional districts.

Republicans, though, argue they won the supermajority fair and square because Hoosiers appreciate Republican policies. They point to the fact that they control every statewide seat in the Statehouse from the U.S. Senate to the state executive branch.

But while Republicans should expect to win more seats in Indiana, they shouldn't expect to win the Statehouse and congressional seats by such a wide margin, Warshaw said.

"It would be really difficult for voters to overcome this gerrymander," Warshaw told IndyStar, "and, change the composition of the Indiana congressional delegation or the state legislative majorities very much."

What the statistics show

There are substantially more wasted Democratic votes in Indiana's congressional and state legislative elections than wasted Republican votes, according to the study. 

During the 2012 House race immediately following redistricting, for example, the efficiency gap — or difference between wasted Republican and wasted Democratic votes —  was more extreme than 95% of other state house elections throughout the country and in Indiana over the past five decades. 

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Likewise, the 2014 state Senate election results, when the 2011 plan fully went into effect, had a higher efficiency gap than 96% of other state Senate elections.

The same gap exists on the congressional side. Roughly 75% of states with more than six congressional seats have a 10% or less advantage for either party. In 2011, Indiana had a pro-Republican efficiency gap of 19%. 

According to Warshaw's research, even if Indiana Democrats win about 50% of the statewide vote in congressional races, they would still only win three of the nine seats, based on the current maps and statistics.

"It's just very clear that these (maps) have just a huge partisan bias in favor of Republicans, baked into the maps," Warshaw said. "What's notable about the Indiana maps, and it's especially true for Congress, is that even though the vote shares of the parties change, the seat shares really don't."

Warshaw's study also found that the Republican bias is not solely due to the state's geography, because the maps drawn in 2011 had a much larger Republican bias than any other Indiana map in recent history.

How to 'fix' it

The No. 1 thing states can do to cut out the bias is to have an independent process, Warshaw said. For years, Democrats and groups fighting gerrymandering alike have called for an independent redistricting process without success. 

The process this fall will primarily be controlled by those that control the legislative branch in the Statehouse: Republicans. The next best option is to make the process transparent, Warshaw said.

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In a statement, House Speaker Todd Huston, R-Fishers, committed to "a transparent redistricting process." 

"The public will once again have opportunities to provide input in meetings around the state," Huston said. "Hoosiers can be confident that we'll meet all of our statutory and constitutional requirements."

Senate President Pro Tempore Rodric Bray did not respond to request for comment through his spokeswomen. 

Call IndyStar reporter Kaitlin Lange at 317-432-9270. Follow her on Twitter: @kaitlin_lange.