The enthusiasm pulsating through the Democratic convention in Chicago reflected two critical developments that are bolstering the party’s standard bearer, Kamala Harris.
One is the decline of the “double haters:" disillusioned voters who disdained both Joe Biden and Donald Trump. The second trend is related — a marked shrinkage in support for third-party candidates, especially Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Many delegates cheering for Harris don’t actually think she’s the ideal candidate or would make a great president. Few backed her failed bid for the nomination that Biden won in 2020, and many gave her tepid reviews as his vice president.
But this year, at this moment, she has one huge advantage: She is NOT Biden or Trump. On top of that, she has not served as president. She has not broken promises, failed tests, acquired scars. She is not an aging white man. She provides a fresher, younger option for many voters who, just a month ago, despaired over their choices.
A Monmouth University poll in June found that only 46% of Democrats were enthusiastic about a Trump-Biden rematch. In a recent survey, 85% welcomed a Trump-Harris contest. In an ABC/Washington Post poll last month, only one in five Democrats expressed satisfaction with their choices. That number tripled to 60% after Harris replaced Biden.
This election is far from over. Still, the electoral landscape looks a lot different today than it did on July 21, when Biden dropped out, and the double-haters are a major reason.
‘Shake things up’
The Pew Research Center had pegged their number of double-haters at 25%, the highest level of dismay in polling history. Monmouth counted 17% of those polled as deeply disdainful, but with Harris in the race, that number has been sliced in half, to only 8%. Of those unhappy voters, 53% now back Harris, only 11% have shifted to Trump, and 35% remain unpersuaded.
“Taking Biden out of the mix and replacing him with Harris has significantly altered a key metric in this race,” said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth poll. “Trump-Biden double haters want to shake things up, but they are wary of change that is too authoritarian. Harris appears to provide most of this group with the fresh outlook they desire.”
As Harris has crested, Kennedy Jr. has crumbled. His polling numbers have plunged, he’s had trouble getting on some state ballots, and Politico reports his “sputtering presidential campaign is almost broke.”
Kennedy has always been a quirky candidate — a Democratic name with many wild-eyed conservative positions, especially on vaccinations — so his impact is hard to measure. But analysts generally agree his declining fortunes are helping Harris, at least at the margins.
Pew reports that of those voters who supported or leaned toward Kennedy last month, 39% now back Harris, 20% support Trump, and 39% remain committed to Kennedy. The Washington Post agrees, writing, “RFK Jr. and the third-party effect are now hurting Trump.” The Post cites a Marquette law school poll which calculates that Harris’ lead over Trump jumps by 2 points when third-party candidates are included.
News site Semafor headlines, “Third parties were having a moment. Then Kamala Harris showed up” and quotes election analyst Lakshya Jain: “The biggest factor that was unique to this election cycle was a deep distaste of both candidates, which opened the door to elevated third-party voting even in a time of record polarization. Kamala Harris’ ascension seems to have completely changed this dynamic.”
These are small numbers, but they can matter a great deal. One of the main reasons Hillary Clinton lost to Trump and Biden beat him was the third-party vote. In 2016, almost 6% of all voters rejected the two main candidates, and these dissidents were particularly critical in the key swing states that gave Trump his victory.
Take Pennsylvania: Democrats easily carried the Keystone State three straight times — in 2004, 2008 and 2012. But in 2016, 268,000 voters backed third parties, and Trump squeaked by with a 44,000-vote margin. In 2020, the national third-party vote dropped from almost 6% to under 2%. Biden won Pennsylvania — and the election.
Harris still faces many potential pitfalls — Trump’s attacks, reporters’ questions, an intense spotlight that will expose her past statements and exaggerate her mistakes. Voters rank the economy as their top priority and favor Trump on that issue. But as the double haters and third parties implode, Democratic prospects definitely improve.
Steven Roberts teaches politics and journalism at George Washington University.
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