Trump holds edge over Harris on key issues of immigration, economy: poll

(TND) — A new poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research shows Vice President Kamala Harris outperforming former President Donald Trump in most personal attributes but trailing him in two key issues: the economy and immigration.

The AP-NORC poll found 46% of Americans trust Trump’s handling of immigration, compared to the 36% who said they trust Harris more on that key issue.

And 45% trust Trump more on the economy, compared to 38% for Harris.

Peter Loge, who spent more than 30 years working in Democratic politics, said Trump’s perceived strength on those two important issues gives him an overall strong position among issue-minded voters.

But he also said the attributes will play a big role in the election.

“When I vote, I'm not voting for a bucket of issues,” said Loge, the director of the School of Media and Public Affairs at George Washington University. “I'm voting for somebody whose judgment I trust in an important situation.”

And on that side of the coin, the AP-NORC poll featured some “very good numbers” for Harris, he said.

More voters see Harris as committed to democracy, disciplined, honest and caring.

A slightly larger share of survey respondents saw Trump as a strong leader.

But Harris was more likely to be viewed as capably handling a crisis.

And Harris had her areas of perceived strength on the issues, as well.

Harris was more trusted to handle abortion policy, issues of racial inequality, and health care.

Harris and Trump were equally trusted to deal with crime, which Loge said was noteworthy.

Republicans have long been viewed as the party that’s tough on crime.

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Trump was slightly more trusted to deal with the war in Gaza.

Loge said the Gaza war isn’t likely to be a top issue for a lot of people, but it could be for a small but important slice of the electorate in the swing state of Michigan.

The Cook Political Report shows six true toss-up states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

New surveys by The New York Times and Siena College show Harris now leading Trump in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.

And she holds a small, 1.6% advantage over Trump in an amalgam of national polls published by The Hill.

Tabitha Bonilla, a political scientist at the Institute for Policy Research at Northwestern University, said the AP-NORC poll results seem to affirm the campaign narratives we’re hearing.

Democrats talk a lot about protecting social benefits and protecting women's rights. Republicans talk a lot about inflation and immigration.

And the economy trumps all the other issues, according to the conventional wisdom of politics.

But Bonilla said that won’t be the only issue motivating voters to get to the polls this November.

And while economic metrics, such as Wednesday’s cooling inflation measure, show the economy is in pretty good shape, voters are going to care more about “pocketbook economics,” she said.

“We're still recovering from this period of inflation, and food prices and everyday goods prices are still higher than people remember them being,” Bonilla said. “And so, pocketbook economics feel very much not in favor of the Democrats.”

Despite a substantial easing of inflation, Loge said Republicans can still effectively appeal to voters who are feeling pinched financially.

“I think the inflation argument still has stickiness, in part because we don't experience the economy. We buy gas and groceries. And gas and groceries cost a lot of money,” Loge said.

Over half of Republicans in the AP-NORC poll said they’d be “excited” if Trump wins the election.

That’s about the same as it has been.

But Democrats have seen a surge of enthusiasm since President Joe Biden dropped out of the race and made way for Harris to take over the bid.

An AP-NORC poll in March found just 40% of Democrats would be excited with another Biden administration.

The new poll found over 60% of Democrats would be excited for a Harris victory.

And Harris might have some traction with independent voters.

The new AP-NORC poll found that 22% of independent voters would be satisfied with a Harris victory, compared to 18% saying they’d be satisfied with a Trump victory.

And 19% of independents said they’d be excited to see Harris win, compared to 18% for Trump.

“If Harris wants to win, I think she needs both,” Bonilla said about Harris’ need to get a strong turnout from her base while also swaying some independent voters.

Loge said Biden “works a room well” but isn’t a guy who engenders enthusiasm.

Harris represents a new face for the party, which is “inherently exciting” for Democrats, Loge said.

“If she's able to turn out the coalition that elected Joe Biden in 2020, Barack Obama in 2012, she will be elected president of the United States,” he said. “So yes, it is about the base. It is also about independents, and specifically, I think suburban women who are concerned about women's rights, who are concerned about abortion.”