California Republicans are well-poised for a victory in the state's senate primary election next week, with a new poll showing GOP candidate Steve Garvey winning more support than any other candidate in the race.
Voters in California will have until March 5 to make their pick in the senate primary that has seen candidates spar over issues including the state's housing crisis, economy, climate and immigration. On the Democratic side, three current members of Congress—Representatives Barbara Lee, Katie Porter and Adam Schiff—are running. Meanwhile, Republicans have largely rallied around Garvey, a former baseball star, as their top candidate.
A new poll delivered good news to Republicans, who have faced questions about whether they may be locked out of the general election in November.
California is among the few states that use the "jungle primary" system, in which all candidates, regardless of their political party, will run on the same ballot during the primary election in March. The two candidates who receive the most votes will then go on to the general election, creating a challenge for Republicans as the state's voters select two Democrats to run in November.
The Berkeley IGS poll released on Friday showed Garvey garnered more support than his Democratic and Republican rivals. Twenty-seven percent of respondents said they planned to back Garvey, while 25 percent expressed support for Schiff, 19 percent for Porter and 8 percent for Lee.
The poll suggests a shift since the beginning of the year, as a Berkeley IGS poll from January showed Garvey trailing Schiff and Porter. That survey found Schiff leading with 21 percent of support, while Porter followed with 17 percent. Garvey placed third, with 13 percent saying they planned to vote for him.
Garvey responded to the poll in a statement to Newsweek, saying he is "deeply humbled by the trust and support" shown in the poll.
"This demonstrates that our message of addressing the real issues that Californians care about with compassionate, common-sense solutions is resonating more than the tired political bickering of career politicians. It's clear that people are ready for new leadership that brings us together to build a brighter future for California," he said.
A spokesperson for the Schiff campaign declined to comment when reached by Newsweek.
Newsweek also reached out to the Porter campaign for comment via email.
The poll surveyed 6,536 California voters from February 22 to 27 and has an "estimated sampling error of approximately" plus or minus two percentage points.
If Garvey makes it to the general election, he would likely face an uphill challenge to defeat a Democrat in November.
California is among the most Democratic-leaning states in the country, backing President Joe Biden by more than 29 points in the 2020 election. The Cook Political Report, which tracks elections across the U.S., classifies the race as "Safe Democratic," meaning it is "considered competitive" and "not likely to become closely contested."
Christian Robert Grose, academic director at the University of Southern California Schwarzenegger Institute, previously told Newsweek the November election would be more competitive if two Democrats advance to the general election, and that Republicans are "unlikely to win the Senate race given the Democratic lean of the state."
Uncommon Knowledge
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
About the writer
Andrew Stanton is a Newsweek weekend reporter based in Maine. His role is reporting on U.S. politics and social issues. ... Read more
