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Primary season is well underway, and this week, voters head to the polls in Arkansas, Georgia, and Kentucky. Texas will host more than 30 runoff elections for the top two candidates from the primary races in March.
Here’s what to watch for on Tuesday.
Arkansas
Polls close: 7:30 pm Central time
Democrats have a chance to flip a seat from red to blue in Arkansas’s Second Congressional District, an area near Little Rock. It’s currently held by Republican Rep. French Hill. The district leans Republican, according to the Cook Political Report, but depending on how strong the blue wave is in November, Democrats might have a shot.
The Democrats vying for the nomination are Clarke Tucker, an Arkansas attorney state legislator who’s the likely frontrunner; Gwen Combs, a schoolteacher and Air Force vet; Paul Spencer, a high school teacher; and Jonathan Dunkley, a project manager at the Clinton School of Public Service at the University of Arkansas.
A Republican gubernatorial election is also grabbing some attention in Arkansas, where incumbent Gov. Asa Hutchinson is facing a challenge from Jan Morgan, a former television journalist notorious for setting up a “Muslim Free Zone” in her gun range. Drama aside, Obamacare is a major issue in this race. As Vox’s Dylan Scott writes, in “an ironic turn, Hutchinson may prevail as much thanks to his more moderate positions, most notably, his support for Obamacare’s Medicaid expansion, as the tacks to the right he’s taken to ward off Morgan’s challenge.”
Georgia
Polls close: 7 pm Eastern time
Georgia has an open governor seat, and things are getting heated. Democrats desperately want to take the statehouse, but the only guarantee is that a Stacey will win the primary. Stacey Abrams, a former minority leader of the Georgia House of Representatives, is facing off against Stacey Evans, a member of the Georgia House.
The dividing issue in the race is the HOPE Scholarship, which gave Georgian high schoolers with high enough GPAs free in-state tuition. Republican Gov. Nathan Deal wanted to slash the program during the recession. Abrams, who was minority leader at the time, cut a deal for less drastic cuts. Evans has made restoring HOPE central to her campaign. It’s also her main line of attack against Abrams.
It gets more complicated: Abrams, who is black, and Evans, who is white, are navigating the knotty issues of race in their state. It’s also a weird proxy war for national and state Democrats, though the lines are much blurrier in this race. But Abrams has a commanding lead in polls and is likely to win.
Meanwhile, on the Republican side, Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle is the clear frontrunner in a crowded field, which means he might not avoid a runoff. Secretary of State Brian Kemp is the most obvious candidate to give him trouble. Cagle is the more slightly moderate, pro-business candidate; Kemp is the Trumpian foil, who’s made some headlines with his ads.
There are two House seats worth watching: Georgia’s Sixth and Seventh districts. Georgia Sixth probably sounds familiar. Rep. Karen Handel won in a special election against Democrat Jon Ossoff last year. Democrats still think they have a shot at this seat in the Atlanta suburbs. The contenders Lucy McBath, a gun control activist; Kevin Abel, an entrepreneur; Bobby Kaple, a former TV news host; and Steven Knight Griffin, a former policy analyst for the Centers for Disease Control and Provention.
Republicans have held Georgia’s Seventh District for more than 20 years. It’s a likely Republican seat currently held by GOP Rep. Rob Woodall — but Trump only won here with 51 percent of the vote. Six Democrats are competing for the open seat.
Kentucky
Polls close: 6 pm Eastern time in eastern Kentucky; 6 pm Central in western Kentucky
Kentucky’s Sixth Congressional District is one the Democrats covet in a deep-red state. The district leans Republican by a +9 margin, but registered Democrats outnumber Republicans. Republican Rep. Andy Barr has held the seat since 2012.
The Democratic candidates are Lexington Mayor Jim Gray, retired Marine Lt. Col. Amy McGrath, and state Sen. Reggie Thomas. Both Gray and McGrath are strong candidates. Gray is a popular mayor who’s attempted statewide office before, but McGrath shook up the race, starting with her powerful ad about her background as a combat pilot.
Texas
Polls close: 7 pm Central in most of the state; 7 pm Mountain time in West Texas
This is round two for Texas, which will host more than 30 runoffs in races where no candidate won the majority of votes. The marquee matchups are mostly in the congressional races, starting with Texas’s Seventh District. This Democratic race has gotten national attention because of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s opposition to Laura Moser, a progressive activist and former journalist. The DCCC’s campaign against Moser backfired in the March primary, and she will face off against Lizzie Pannill Fletcher, a Houston attorney, in the runoff. Besides the campaign drama, Democrats think they have a shot to unseat Republican Rep. John Culberson here.
Other runoff races to watch include the 21st Congressional District, an open seat near Austin that Dems would like to pick up; the 23rd Congressional District in southwestern Texas that also looks flippable; and a Democratic gubernatorial runoff, the winner of whom will most likely get to lose to Gov. Greg Abbott in November.
