One GOP senator has indicated she opposes the latest version of the bill.
13 others have expressed concerns with some form of the bill.
If three vote against it, the bill would fail.
Collins
Maine
Capito
W.Va.
Cassidy
La.
Corker
Tenn.
Heller
Nev.
Hoeven
N.D.
Johnson
Wis.
Lee
Utah
McCain
Ariz.
Moran
Kan.
Murkowski
Alaska
Paul
Ky.
Portman
Ohio
Sasse
Neb.
Senate Republicans are hurtling toward a health-care vote this week, but it’s unclear whether they have the votes to partially “repeal and replace” Obamacare, as they’ve promised to do for the past seven years. Not only that — it’s unclear what will be included in the final version of the bill, and whether they will have the 50 votes to formally open debate on the issue. The vote to debate on a vote is planned for Tuesday.
Assuming no Democrats vote for this bill (a safe assumption because it attempts to unravel Obamacare) and with Sen. McCain (R-Ariz)’s return to Washington, Senate leaders can afford to lose only two Republican votes to open debate. So far, one senator (Susan Collins of Maie) has said she'll vote "no," while other key senators (Rob Portman of Ohio, Dean Heller of Nevada and Shelley Moore Capito of West Virginia) have said they'll vote to start debate. Many more have opposed the most recent version of the legislation. Here's a breakdown of what went wrong.
Among 52 GOP senators ...
50 votes are needed to pass
(Vice president would break a tie)
So only two
can defect
Among 52 GOP senators ...
50 votes are needed to pass
(Vice president would break a tie)
So only two
can defect
Who might vote no?
We’re tracking every Senator’s position on the bill. Below we take a look at some groups of Republicans who might have a reason to vote no, highlighting those who’ve said that they’re opposed and those who’ve said that they have concerns.
[The Senate bill’s changes won over some conservatives but offered little to moderates]
Senators from a state that expanded Medicaid
Capito
W.Va.
Cassidy
La.
Heller
Nev.
Hoeven
N.D.
McCain
Ariz.
Murkowski
Alaska
Paul
Ky.
Portman
Ohio
Boozman
Ark.
Cotton
Ark.
Daines
Mont.
Ernst
Iowa
Flake
Ariz.
Gardner
Colo.
Grassley
Iowa
Kennedy
La.
McConnell
Ky.
Sullivan
Alaska
Toomey
Pa.
Young
Ind.
Thirty-one states have expanded Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act, and although many red states have declined to do so, these senators represent states that decided to expand. The program extends health benefits to Americans under 65 with incomes up to 133 percent of the federal poverty level, and is funded almost entirely by the federal government.
States that saw big drop in uninsured
Collins
Maine
Capito
W.Va.
Heller
Nev.
Paul
Ky.
Portman
Ohio
Barrasso
Wyo.
Boozman
Ark.
Cotton
Ark.
Daines
Mont.
Enzi
Wyo.
Ernst
Iowa
Grassley
Iowa
McConnell
Ky.
Toomey
Pa.
The main goal of the ACA was to reduce the number of Americans without insurance. These senators are from states that saw the biggest decline in their uninsured populations, with drops of at least 33 percent from 2013 to 2015.
[Republicans who decried Obamacare secrecy now writing legislation in secret]
Least conservative
Collins
Maine
Capito
W.Va.
Murkowski
Alaska
Cochran
Miss.
Most conservative
Lee
Utah
Paul
Ky.
Sasse
Neb.
Cruz
Tex.
Flake
Ariz.
There is opposition to the bill on both sides of the Republican ideological spectrum (more on how we categorized the lawmakers here). Relatively moderate senators are cautious about taking drastic measure to roll back Obamacare. Some of the most conservative senators are concerned that this bill may not go far enough.
Up for reelection in 2018
Corker
Tenn.
Heller
Nev.
Barrasso
Wyo.
Cruz
Tex.
Fischer
Neb.
Flake
Ariz.
Hatch
Utah
Wicker
Miss.
In whatever form it takes, the Senate bill is expected to be unpopular. That makes it a riskier “yes” vote for senators who will be up for reelection in 2018, such as Dean Heller from the battleground state of Nevada. Standing alongside Nevada's GOP governor, who expanded Medicaid under Obamacare, Heller forcefully opposed the first version of the health-care bill, saying: "I cannot support a piece of legislation that takes away insurance from tens of millions of Americans and hundreds of thousands of Nevadans."
There are even concerns about the process of crafting the bill among the “working group” of 13 Republican senators who were supposedly writing it. Sen. Mike Lee (Utah), one of those 13, posted a video Tuesday expressing his frustration at not having seen legislation yet, and others have publicly expressed concerns about the bill.
[Revised Senate health-care bill still lacks the votes to pass]
Part of the bill’s “working group”
Lee
Utah
Portman
Ohio
Alexander
Tenn.
Barrasso
Wyo.
Cornyn
Tex.
Cotton
Ark.
Cruz
Tex.
Enzi
Wyo.
Gardner
Colo.
Hatch
Utah
McConnell
Ky.
Thune
S.D.
Toomey
Pa.
Here’s a continuously updated list of where Republican senators stand on the current bill. Click on the plus sign to read why they took that position. Did we miss something? Let us know!
Where GOP senators stand:
In bold are the senators who said they are inclined to vote against a key procedural vote. Three "no" votes would kill the bill before it even got to an official vote.
Oppose the bill 1
These senators have said they will or are likely to vote against the current bill. Republicans can afford only two GOP "no" votes.
Collins tweeted: “Still deep cuts to Medicaid in Senate bill. Will vote no on MTP. Ready to work w/ GOP & Dem colleagues to fix flaws in ACA.” Read more »
Have concerns 13
These senators are considering voting against the bill unless their concerns get addressed, or they clearly expressed opposition to the first version of the bill and haven't changed their position yet.
Capito said in a July 13 statement that she continues “to have serious concerns about the Medicaid provisions” of the bill. She opposed the previous bill, saying “I'm not going to drop you off a cliff, and in my view, the Senate bill was too much of a cliff." But she did say on Monday she'd vote to open debate on various version of the health-care bill. Read more »
Cassidy unveiled a separate health-care plan with Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.). He had concerns with the previous bill. He said, “there are things in this bill that adversely affect my state, that are peculiar to my state. A couple of the things I am concerned about, but if those can be addressed I will. And if they can't be addressed, I won't. So right now I am undecided.” Read more »
Corker said he will support the motion to proceed, but he had concerns about the previous bill. Corker said the previous bill “still doesn’t solve the problem low-income citizens across our state have. This bill, still places a bigger burden on them than they had before and a burden that they’re really not able to overcome.” Read more »
Heller has said he'd concerned Republicans' overhaul would pull the rug out on some of Nevada's most vulnerable people, like Medicaid recipients: "I cannot support a piece of legislation that takes away the insurance from tens of thousands of Nevadans." But he said Monday he'd vote for a procedural vote to debate various health-care options. Read more »
"I am concerned about Leader McConnell's comments to apparently some of my Republican colleagues — 'Don't worry about some of the Medicaid reforms, those are scheduled so far in the future they'll never take effect,'" the conservative senator, who wants to roll back Medicaid, told the GreenBay Press Gazette in an interview published July 14. "I've got to confirm those comments ... I think those comments are going to really put the motion to proceed in jeopardy, whether it's on my part or others." Read more »
Lee opposed the second version of the bill because he supported full repeal instead. It's not clear if there will be a vote on full repeal Tuesday. He said in a July 17 statement of the second version of Senate Republicans' bill: "After conferring with trusted experts regarding the latest version of the Consumer Freedom Amendment, I have decided I cannot support the current version of the Better Care Reconciliation Act. “In addition to not repealing all of the Obamacare taxes, it doesn’t go far enough in lowering premiums for middle class families; nor does it create enough free space from the most costly Obamacare regulations.” Read more »
McCain said in a July 13 statement that the revised bill “does not include the measures I have been advocating for on behalf of the people of Arizona.” He said he plans to file amendments regarding the bill’s impact on Arizona’s Medicaid system. “This is not what the American people expect of us, and it’s not what they deserve,” he said. Read more »
Moran has said he supports reapeal Obamacare now, replace later. It's not clear if that will be a vote on Tuesday."There are serious problems with Obamacare, and my goal remains what it has been for a long time: to repeal and replace it," he said in a statement July 17. "This closed-door process has yielded the BCRA, which fails to repeal the Affordable Care Act or address healthcare’s rising costs. For the same reasons I could not support the previous version of this bill, I cannot support this one." Read more »
The moderate senator said in a Facebook town hall "there were some good things that came out of [Obamacare]," like protecting coverage for young adults and people with preexisting conditions as well as expanding Medicaid. “It's no secret that healthcare needs to be reformed, but it needs to be done right,” she said in a June 22 statement. Read more »
Paul favors the straight repeal bill being considered by the Senate, and said he would vote to open debate on the floor with McConnell's guarantee that that bill will be voted on. Read more »
Portman has said he has “real concerns" that a health-care overhaul won't do enough to help opioid addicts. But he said Monday he'd vote for a procedural vote to debate various health-care options. Read more »
Sasse was concerned with the previous bill: "Conservative Nebraskans have lots of reasons to be frustrated: This bill is not a full repeal; this bill is not a full replace; what this bill is is mostly just a Medicaid reform package,” he said in a statement to the Omaha World-Herald on June 27. “Nebraskans are dissatisfied with it and so am I.” Read more »
Unknown/unclear 19
These senators haven't commented on the bill or have given vague statements.
Graham said he would support the motion to procced but wants changes to the bill so that it would win the support of Republican governors. He unveiled a separate health-care plan with Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.).
Kennedy and Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) released a joint statement July 13 that said the bill “corrects a funding issue that would have treated Louisiana unfairly compared to other states.” Read more »
“I have started analyzing the revised draft bill to determine its benefits for Oklahomans,” Lankford said in a July 13 statement. Read more »
Support the bill 19
These senators have said they will or are likely to vote for the bill.
Alexander said in a July 13 statement that the revised bill takes care of his main concerns but that he will continue to review the draft. Read more »
“We can let Obamacare continue to harm millions of families and small businesses, or we can help deliver better care that's more affordable without government mandates,” Cornyn said in a July 13 statement. Read more »
“The journey to a better American health care system begins here,” Enzi said in a July 13 statement. Read more »
Hatch said on the Senate floor that “this legislation, while far from perfect, would fulfill the vast majority” of promises Republicans have made to their constituents regarding health care. Read more »
The Senate Majority Leader largely authored the bill in secret with his aides, taking into account input with GOP senators. Read more »
Perdue told Bloomberg TV that he thinks the bill is “getting very, very close.” Read more »
“I look forward to continued improvement of the bill and am confident Kansas will continue to fare better under BCRA than Obamacare,” Roberts said in a July 13 statement. Read more »
“I'm in the conservative camp, so I like what I've seen,” Luther told Fox Business on July 13. Read more »
Tillis said in a July 13 statement that the revised bill is an improvement. “I hope my colleagues will join me in supporting the motion to proceed so we can begin this robust, bipartisan amendment process,” he said. Read more »
“The revised draft Senate health care bill prevent's Obamacare's imminent collapse,” Toomey said in a July 13 statement. Read more »
“This draft legislation takes a smaller government approach,” Wicker said in a July 13 statement. Read more »
Benjamin Din and Kim Soffen contributed to this report.
About this story
Stances on the bill are sourced from lawmaker statements and news reports. Did we miss something? Let us know!
Uninsured rate change was calculated based on data from the Kaiser Family Foundation.
Ideology is based on the first dimension of a measure called DW-Nominate, which scores each lawmaker's voting record between -1 (most liberal) and 1 (most conservative). The most moderate Republicans listed have an ideology score of less than 0.3, while the most conservative have a score of more than 0.8.
Legislator images via Government Printing Office.
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