Candidate quality in focus after GOP falls short in Senate races

WASHINGTON (TND) — In August, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell saw it coming when he said his party's odds of winning control of the Senate were hurt by "candidate quality."

In Pennsylvania, Republican Senate candidate Mehmet Oz lost to Democratic Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman by about four points. Oz, a TV host, had no political experience but did have the backing of former President Donald Trump. Fetterman's victory flips the seat which is currently held by retiring Republican Sen. Pat Toomey.

“It’s a tricky race to evaluate because on the one hand, it was a winnable race for Republicans. I think if they nominated a more moderate, sort of high-quality candidate I think they could have won that race," said Chris Warshaw, an associate professor of Political Science at George Washington University.

Many in the Republican establishment were pulling for David McCormick in the primary.

In the heat of primary season at the end of March, during an interview with Punchbowl News, McConnell emphasized the importance of having electable nominees.

"And so far, we’re moving into the primary season, we’re optimistic we’re gonna have a fully electable nominee in every one of the places that will determine our majority," McConnell said, specifically naming Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, North Carolina and Georgia.

Last year McConnell threw his support behind Herschel Walker's Senate bid against incumbent Democrat Sen. Raphael Warnock of Georgia, which now heads into a runoff to occur in December. State law requires a candidate to get 50% of the vote plus one to win.

Like Oz, Walker had no political experience.

"They clearly also made mistakes in terms — beyond their baggage — also made mistakes in terms of how they appealed to the voters," said Garret Martin, the co-director of American University's Transatlantic Policy Center.

Walker's campaign was rocked by scandal when multiple women accused the anti-abortion candidate of paying for their abortions. In one alleged case, he's accused of pressuring the woman to go through with the abortion.

“We know from previous political science studies that candidates that have scandals of this nature are typically punished by voters and will do you know, maybe two or three points worse because of the scandal," Warshaw said.

Walker got about 200,000 fewer votes than Republican Gov. Brian Kemp, who defeated second-time Democratic challenger Stacey Abrams.

Another instance of the Republican Senate candidate underperforming compared to a victorious incumbent Republican governor was Don Bolduc of New Hampshire. Incumbent Democrat Sen. Maggie Hassan beat Bolduc by 10 points. Her seat was once considered one of the most likely to flip to Republican hands. New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu won his race by more than 15 points, defeating Democratic challenger Tom Sherman, a state senator.

Hassan's campaign honed in on Bolduc's stance on abortion and record of denying the results of the 2020 election.

“Across the battlegrounds, I think that the Republicans nominated the weaker, more ideologically extreme candidate," Warshaw said. "And that cost them a point or two probably in each of those races and might have cost them control of the Senate. We’ll see.”