RGJ poll: Heller-Rosen, Nevada governor races in dead heat. More on Question 3, brothels

Undecided voters could play a major role in Nevada come November as the race for U.S. Senate and governor are locked in a virtual dead heat.

The contest for U.S. Senate between Republican incumbent Dean Heller and Democratic challenger Rep. Jacky Rosen is statistically tied in the Silver State, according to a Suffolk University/Reno Gazette Journal poll released Tuesday.

Analysis: Poll showing a tight U.S. Senate race in Nevada is tough news for Heller

The same was observed in the race to replace Gov. Brian Sandoval, with Democrat Steve Sisolak and Republican Adam Laxalt virtually tied in their race as well.

The wide-ranging poll also gauged voters on a variety of issues facing Nevada, including Question 3 — the push to amend the state constitution to deregulate Nevada's energy market — whether to enforce voter-approved universal background checks for gun sales and legalized prostitution. 

This is the first public poll listing all candidates certified for the Nevada ballot.

“With Democratic and Republican voters deadlocked, the outcome of these elections rests with the least connected voters,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center in Boston. “The people who can swing this election are third-party voters, undecideds and those who are saying today that they will go to the polls and select ‘none of these candidates.’

The poll of 500 likely general election voters in Nevada was conducted July 24-29 with 189 Democrats, 174 Republicans and 102 independents. It has a margin of error of 4.4 percent, meaning the results could be 4.4 percentage points higher or lower.  Get a copy of the full results here (pdf). Dive into the weeds with the cross tabs here (pdf). 

U.S. Senate race

Heller, considered one of the most vulnerable Republican incumbents on the ballot this November, leads Democrat Rosen 41 percent to 40 percent, according to the poll. The difference is well within the poll’s margin of error.

Heller is facing a higher unfavorability rating among likely voters. About 41 percent of voters have a negative view of the incumbent while 39 percent have a favorable rating. 

Meanwhile, 34 percent of voters gave Rosen a favorable rating compared to 27 percent who gave her a negative view.

There's another challenge facing the Democratic challenger: name recognition. About 16 percent of likely voters have never heard of Rosen — higher than any other major candidate on Nevada's ballot this fall.

Healthcare was the No. 1 issue for Nevada voters when picking a candidate for the U.S. Senate race. Immigration ranked second while Trump and the economy tied for third.

Heller's vote to repeal the Affordable Care Act was noted by poll respondents in follow-up interviews conducted by the Reno Gazette Journal.

Last year:Sandoval asks Senate to reject Heller-backed Obamacare repeal

Last year:After weeks of waffling, Heller votes 'yes' on failed 'skinny repeal' of Obamacare

Harold M. Behn, a veteran and retired corrections officer from Oklahoma who’s now living in Washoe County, is undecided in the U.S. Senate race. 

The Democrat, who didn't pick a presidential candidate in 2016, noted Heller’s vote last summer in the unsuccessful Republican effort to repeal the Affordable Care Act. That voted followed a press conference Heller staged with Gov. Brian Sandoval to signal support for the law.  

“That right there is kind of wishy washy; you tell the citizens of Nevada one thing and the political party is more important than the citizens you represent,” Behn said. 

David Callisch, a Republican who voted for Trump in 2016, is undecided in the U.S. Senate race, too. 

The Incline Village-based marketing professional said Heller has been “OK, not great.” He said he’d be willing to vote for anyone in the race right now. 

“In the era of Turmp, voters like me tend to look for more, how do I say, ballsy people, who aren’t afraid,” Callisch said. “I don’t like Trump, he’s an idiot — you gotta give him credit for doing stuff, for trying to do stuff.”

He added, “I’m looking for that same kind of attitude from a senator.” 

Governor’s race

The Nevada governor’s race is even tighter than the U.S Senate race, with less than a percentage point separating the Democrat and Republican candidates.

Republican Laxalt leads Democrat Sisolak by a slim 0.6 percentage point, making the race a virtual dead heat as well.

The economy topped the list of issues for the governor’s race, followed by education and healthcare.

Debbra King, who owns an accounting firm in Reno, is still undecided in the governor’s race. She considers herself an independent voter, but registered as a Democrat to support Chris Giunchigliani in the Democratic primary this year.

She’s still researching Sisolak and Laxalt and isn’t sure who she’ll back.  

“(It’ll be) somebody who supports my values, and who recognizes for me that business regulation is not necessarily all bad. That education is good and if you want good education you have to pay for it,” King said. 

Sandoval continues to enjoy wide popularity in the state, with 56.8 percent of respondents having a favorable rating of the Nevada governor vs. 18.8 percent who disapprove.

Question 3 

Most poll respondents disapprove of Question 3, which seeks to minimize energy market regulations and get rid of legal energy monopolies in the state.

More:Adelson vs. Buffett: Here's why Question 3 is turning Nevada politicians in knots

About 46 percent oppose Question 3 while 31 percent plan to support it. About 22 percent of voters are undecided. 

Callisch, a Republican, said he’s usually in favor of deregulation, but took pause at throwing his support behind Question 3 without doing some more homework.

“That said there are certain markets that are essential to keep on all the time, meaning power and telecommunications,” he said. “There are a couple markets you can’t just deregulate willy nilly and expect the same level of service.” 

Ban brothels?

A significant number of respondents opposed prohibiting legalized prostitution in brothels in Nevada. It's an issue that's gathered steam now that Lyon County voters could outlaw brothels while pimp-turned-politician Dennis Hof runs for a Southern Nevada state Assembly seat.

More:Voters could ban brothels in one Nevada county. Sex workers blame Dennis Hof's publicity

About 61 percent of respondents said they were against outlawing brothels in the state while 29 percent supported it. A majority of all age groups, genders, races and political parties all agreed brothels should not be outlawed in Nevada. 

"I have no problem with legalized brothels," King said. "If the community supports it and that’s within their values and it’s properly regulated so we don’t have 14-year-old girls in there, fine." 

Enforce background checks? 

A significant majority of respondents also supported enforcement of the universal gun background checks approved by Nevada voters in 2016. In the poll, 68 percent supported enforcement of the background checks compared to 22 percent who did not support it.

The initiative subjects most private-party gun transactions to an FBI-administered vetting process. Weeks after it passed, the FBI said it was unwilling to carry out the additional checks and suggested the state take up the task.

More:Laxalt at odds with other Nevada governor front-runners on gun background check initiative

Laxalt, citing the initiative’s “very specific” language about FBI involvement, cautioned against doing so and deemed the measure unenforceable unless or until the federal agency agreed to conduct the checks. Less than a year later, initiative proponents took the matter to court, where its remained ever since.

Nevadans are (mostly) optimistic 

About 84 percent of respondents also rated their standard of living as either the same or better than it was four years ago.

About 42 percent think they will be better off financially in a year while 40 percent believe their standard of living will be the same.

About 46 percent of Nevadans say the state is on the right track with 35 percent saying it's on the wrong track. About 19 percent of respondents were undecided. 

Who's liked — and who's not

Poll respondents were also asked about their opinions of major political figures in Nevada and President Donald Trump. 

Former U.S. Senator Harry Reid had the highest unfavorability rating. Sandoval had the highest favorability rating. 

Reporter James DeHaven contributed to this report.