Why The B2B Virtual Tradeshow Will Fail...Yet Again (Part 1)

Along with all other virtual alternatives, real and imagined, including: 365/day, hybrid, solar, propane, and gerbil-in-a-wheel events

Author's note: Some elements of the following article were originally part of a larger article published June 16, 2021 that focused on some of the potential opportunities and changes possible due to the re-opening of tradeshows; aka the re-imagined tradeshow. The areas covered were mainly badges, registration and tracking devices issues.

I had raised the topic of virtual/hybrid by pointing out that they would not be a significant factor in "the new normal" for tradeshows, based their three decade record of failure; while providing sample rationales for that failure, along with a variety of historical references illustrating that failure.

However, since initial publication, and based upon the rising digital decibel level regarding all things virtual, and now, more prominently "hybrid" (from the suppliers and pundits, at any rate) I thought it would be helpful to give this topic greater attention, over the course of several articles,

This revision has some key additions, "fun facts," and bonus tracks, including a previously though to be lost transcript of a LinkedIn Virtual Event Group circa 2011 discussing the question “Why does it feel like the Virtual Events World has Stalled? Where is the traction that we all felt just a year ago?” The link to the full transcript can be found in the resource section under the heading " The Four Most Dangerous Words on Wall Street: This time It's Different." (Spoiler alert: there never was any traction...read the full transcript to find out why)

As always, the focus of the article is B2B tradeshows/conferences; run for a PROFIT. The Big Kahuna. The Stuff that Dreams Are Made Of. The kinda' stuff that happens in Vegas; and ideally will continue to happen in Vegas...and Chicago, Orlando, NYC, Atlanta and don't forget the home of the blues, New Orleans...Night Train! The term "events" is so broad as to be meaningless; and occasionally disingenuous when used in false equivalencies and strawman arguments. To be clear, I'm not referring to job fairs, single sponsored developer conferences, webinars, or scientific meetings; and my main area of focus is the US market. (The rest of the world followed suit during the previous two virtual extinctions).

BIG Picture; for those of you into the whole "brevity" thing, you can probably stop after reading this advisory; although you'll be missing some really great stuff:

The concept of a virtual/hybrid B2B tradeshow attempting to apply a physical tradeshow paradigm to internet space and time is simply absurd. It makes one question not only degree of understanding on the part of platform suppliers about business professionals' actual motivation, agendas and behavior at live shows, but also their understanding of how these professionals use and navigate the internet as well.

Virtual tradeshows have been an absolute failure for over three decades by every standard measurement of sustainable, on-going financial ROI to the organizer, exhibitor/sponsor satisfaction, and attendee engagement.

And the failure of virtual has nothing to do with platform technology, but rather the attendee psychology, motivation, and behavior at physical B2B events.

OK, on to the revised article from June 16th:

(Note: some of the links to external materials take a few seconds to load; I think you'll find that it's worth the wait)

Hail to the New Normal; Same as the Old Normal...for Most Intents and Purposes

In anticipation of the reopening of live events, much speculation has already taken place about what, if anything, will truly be significantly different about live tradeshows. I suspect that most of the changes will be evolutionary, not revolutionary; probably in development even before the lockdown. The prior suggestions in this article (see badging article) all fall in the evolutionary category; as will other articles I have in the que. As mentioned, the lockdown has provided an excellent opportunity to to implement change; many that were valid for some time, but difficult to accomplish due to status quo, press of business etc. Moving away from the attendee numbers game to "what was accomplished at the event", is one example..."who" and "what" should take precedence over "how many."

One item that will remain constant...to the great benefits of live shows...is the attendee psychology, motivation, agenda, and behavior for participating at live shows...also to the resulting great benefit of exhibitors and sponsors.

Tradeshows can at times be inefficient, frustrating, aggravating, costly, and at times even frivolous in certain aspects...just like democracy. And, as with democracy, they are still superior to the alternatives; real or theoretical. Their ability to offer a package of business facilitation, education/instruction, and professional networking remains unsurpassed.

Speaking of theoretical alternatives, another aspect of "same as the old normal" will be the continuation of the three decade long record of absolute failure of the stand-alone B2B virtual tradeshow model by every standard measurement of sustainable, on-going financial ROI, exhibitor/sponsor satisfaction, and attendee engagement. With the exception of career fairs, and certain med/tech events, the b2b virtual show will resume its cicada-like life cycle and hibernate until a future generation thinks they've discovered a new alternative.

Of course, as in the past, the potential of the old favorites, "hybrid" and "365/day" shows are now being discussed from armchairs around the world. I read a LinkedIn post where hybrid was referred to as the "Q'Anon of virtual" (if memory serves, it was the author who made that post).

If, in the absence of live shows, after one novelty exposure, attendees have rejected paying for, or even viewing B2B virtual events, interacting with virtual booths etc., in any significant numbers (once virtual, twice shy), why will they suddenly start to participate when live shows are available?

Shifting from cicadas to locusts; the failure of virtual b2b without a competing physical alternative has been nothing short of biblical in magnitude. Helpful hint: the next time your invited to a webinar designed to instruct how to make your next b2b virtual show better (I suspect there @ 1 or 2 million email invites along those lines in your mailbox) remember that history indicates that the second iteration of a virtual event is actually worse than the first. * A third iteration is typically only seen under laboratory conditions; and its lifespan must be measured in micro-seconds. (eg: Virtual Comdex)

I project that in two event cycles or @ 24 months time, B2B hybrid tradeshow platforms will become a commodity, with a race toward zero pricing for the survivors. While consumers actively engage in conspicuous consumption, businesses love a commodity; with the possible exception of corporate jets, executive suite art, and departments intent on bloated budgets. Hybrid is most definitely a commodity; if my in-box is any indication.

Hybriding in Plain Sight

I don't doubt that show organizers will place conference content on their websites, mainly to serve PR and marketing agendas. There will also be some form of exhibitor presence; if not "virtual booths" then a link to a special landing page on the exhibitor's corporate website...essentially the equivalent to a free, standard listing in the show directory. (Is there really any difference between the info and functionality of a virtual booth and an existing company website?).

Fun Fact: content videos, supplier ads, member forums etc. have been a standard feature of all manner of b2b media websites, including tradeshows, for decades. In fact some of the user forums are equal to the LinkedIn user groups in participation, vitality, and benefits!

The most critical and currently ignored 800 pound line-item in the hybrid discussion is whether so-called hybrid show is a revenue-producing profit center, or simply a mandatory service and/or PR/Marketing expense item...

Who is paying what to whom; how much, and how often?

It's not a complex question. Enquiring minds such show organizers (and shareholders in publicly traded firms) need to know. I daresay, this financial model information is as important as the sage advice being given to organizers that speakers should be prepared in advance; content should not be too short or too long; and don't give them anything good to hit but don't walk them.

Once the dust settles, I believe the term "hybrid tradeshow" will essentially become a meaningless buzzword, and perhaps even assume a negative cachet, similar to the case with the term "virtual tradeshow" soon after its 2009-2011 flame-out. (3)

And while I am dismissive of virtual/hybrid tradeshows, I will give credit in the sense that they are at least attempting (unsuccessfully) to emulate a successful business model: the live b2b tradeshow. The 365/day event concept is as old as virtual; but based on an unsuccessful live concept. Around the turn of the century when behemoths like Comdex(s), InterOp, NetWorld, Internet World(s), etc. were drawing thousands of exhibitors and hundreds of thousands of attendees on a bi-weekly basis around the US, the concept of the local "Info-Mart" arose. "Thousands of buyers could flock to the local showrooms of IBM, Microsoft, AST, Word Perfect, Lotus, DB4, Borland, etc., on a 365 day basis!"

What they cudda and what they dudda were two very distinct items. At least ten major cities announced info marts; some were actually built. In some cities, the skeletons are well preserved for historians to study. Had the tech industry been less self-centered, it could have looked at the model of various merchandise marts which still exist and function to this day; fashion, jewelry, gift, toy, etc. If there is not an in-house or city wide "market week (live) event"...the show rooms are locked! The halls are empty! They are typically staffed only for pre-set appointments. If you're unable to visit a Mart in your city with no market week activity, the Internet Archive has curated a brief video of what you might see. Click here for video. Of course, the question of the difference between a 365 day virtual mart presence and a standard corporate website applies here as well.

Some Final Notes (Until Part 2) re: Virtual, 365, Hybrid, Solar, Propane & Gerbil in a Wheel

1. I'm Not Gonna Pay a Lot for that Muffler

Major firms have savvy exhibit departments; they also have very experienced digital media departments. Sometimes they compare notes. Occasionally they fight for budget allocation. The preferred currency of the digital realm is "pay for view/click/conversion"...not booths or digital real estate...and it's easy to measure ROI with those models. Before embarking on development of any ambitious virtual b2b market it would be prudent to check what those "pay per" rates are for your industry segment...the answers may surprise you.

2. Taste this Milk, I Think it's Spoiled

As with previous incarnations of virtual b2b tradeshows; there has been some virtual engagement and financial activity over the past year. Before jumping to conclusions, it may help to remember that there was an auto introduced in the US called the Yugo in the mid 80's...it sold @ 88,500 in the first three years. Almost identical numbers to Tesla's first three years. Sales declined in year four onward, until market removal two years later, and the title "the worst car in history." In order to earn that title, people had to buy and experience a Yugo first. (There were very few repeat buyers).

A Rose by Any Other Name...

Stop the presses! Since the original article was posted, some suppliers have switched from the term 'hybrid' to 'blended.'* Perhaps they sensed that the odor from a hybrid tradeshow is quite different from that of a hybrid rose. As a result, I have lowered my sights regarding dreams of going back in time to change history. Instead of travelling to Dealey Plaza in 1963, I'd to go to Yugo Headquarters in 1989, and tell them they should simply change the name of the car! ( I'm thinking of 'Trabant')

* While I'm dubious about blended; I do believe that single-malt could be a viable option, on the high end of the market.

3. Of Mice and Money

For an independent valuation of the virtual/hybrid tradeshow, the next time you're contacted by a platform supplier, why not suggest that, in the same proven fashion of tradeshow daily/directory suppliers, they produce the virtual event, rather than selling you a platform...give (sell?) them your content, provide the exhibitor list for them to sell the booths and sponsorships, etc. Let them assume the risk and reap the benefits; and, like the directory model, hell, you could even get a percentage of the revenue above a certain agreed upon level. In other words leave it to the digital experts to "put their money where their mouse is." They've been more than patient in attempting to instruct show organizers how to produce profit from virtual and hybrid. Let them spread their wings and become the "Netflix" of re-purposed b2b tradeshow content, and related commerce. Their answer may surprise you!

Fun Fact: Netflix did not approach the studios or theaters and offer to sell their streaming platform on a SAAS basis. They purchased content to re-sell on their own platform. I've heard rumors that they might even begin to produce their own content! Crazy, Huh? BTW: they also don't have a cartoon lobby, but, again from the rumor dept., in response to the companies that will deliver swag bags to virtual tradeshow attendees, Netflix will deliver popcorn to your home by a gig-worker who will then sit behind you, eat potato chips, cough, and kick the back of your chair, and ask what just happened?

4. Get the Lud Out

Far from being a luddite, the author was actually an early adopter of virtual tradeshows; albeit equally early rejecter. I think there are tremendous possibilities for immersive, interactive digital environments; both for limited term, and full 365/day models...just NOT emulating or piggy-backing mature b2b tradeshows. The resource notes (2) will indicate some of virtual projects I've been involved with, well as a show I created and produced in 2008, "Event Technology Expo"...along with the beloved "profit-protector" promo device.

5. You Can't Always Give What They Want

The contrast between the fortunes of two physical tradeshows, Pack Expo and Print/Graph Expo offer a great illustration regarding the failure of b2b virtual tradeshows. In the late nineties, they were two of the largest shows in the US. Print once boasted, @100,000 attendees and 900,000 sf of exhibits in McCormick Place. As the internet grew in significance, Print began a steady decade+ decline, and essentially ended in 2019. It was ultimately incorporated into an event formerly one fifth its size. Concurrently, Pack Expo flourished and grew during that same time frame. Print focused on commercial printing; much of which could be easily conveyed in digital form on the internet; faster and cheaper in fact. In contrast, you can not send a package over the internet!

And professionals attend tradeshows for a diverse package of activities and agendas too numerous to list here; probably unnecessary as well for anyone who has attended (or managed) a tradeshow. A package that can't be duplicated and delivered digitally; certainly not in a financially viable manner; as proven by all of the failed efforts. Booths and seminars delivered separately from that full package in digital form have been proven to have little or no intrinsic $ value. After one exposure, people won't pay for repurposed b2b content, and will not interact with virtual booths. See note 3.d. regarding the rejection of BOB.TV .

BTW, the event that incorporated the remnants of Print was Label Expo...a show featuring the complimentary areas of labelling and packaging!

6. All the World Over So Easy to See, Software with Real Value Just Gotta be Free!

I mentioned the virtual platform as a commodity. Another issue to consider, assuming there is any sort of inherent value, is that an individual or small group could create and nurture an open-source platform for 'virtual event tech'. Unix/Linux, Apache HTTP Server, LibreOffice, etc. are some examples. Now I'm not saying the software that powers much of the internet or a full featured office suite are nearly as complex as a virtual event platform, but you never know. BTW, open-source seems far less intrusive as a rule than their for-profit counterparts.

7. Why Wait...What's the Rush?

Returning to the absurdity of attempting to apply a B2B event model to internet space and time: consider a scenario where you are a senior Apple exec and a cyborg Steve Jobs decides to put on a major tradeshow in Moscone and places you in charge. He inquires if you've selected a general service contractor yet. You respond that there's a hybrid event next month where the GSC's will all have virtual booths...you don't event have to attend physically... and you can examine their services with one mouse click to visit each virtual booth. Jobs replies that you could do a Google search of GSC providers servicing Moscone; get an excellent list, and visit each corporate website showing the same info as a virtual booth (and probably more) with one click, TODAY! (Albeit, you don't have to play 20 registration questions and get unsolicited email and phone messages for the next few months).

How would you respond? Do the same for education...he just might say it's already ubiquitous on the web in video, text, and Esperanto. Conversely, if you're not in the market, what's the rush to visit, much less pay for, attending a b2b virtual event. Simply multiply the above concepts across all of the features of a B2B tradeshow by a googolplex and the reasons for three decades, plus the last eighteen months of virtual failure will become apparent.

8. Who Is It That Breaks A Butterfly Upon A Wheel?

As mentioned, many of the components of hybrid have, and will continue to exist on all manner of website, including tradeshows. Cars will also continue to have cup holders, and hotel room coffee-makers will have 2"x3" trifold napkins in their coffee packets.

The real ROI of these efforts will remain critical in the relative importance of these elements, and consequent investment of time and resources. I assume we've all seen the websites with atomic clocks showing a bazillion interactions sold, etc. (Typically, for a first time event). The question arises whether the organizer needs a middleman to achieve roughly the same real ROI. Could the same results be achieved with their existing CRM software, cloud-based processing and storage, free video streaming/archiving, free appointment scheduling/matchmaking, etc., with a little brainwork from inhouse IT personnel plus show managers; perhaps with outside assistance from some IT/Web oriented high school honors students (the less preconceived notions about how a tradeshow works, the better).

Anecdotally, I get the impression that many of these questions are already being asked by some show managers in the trenches at various organizations. My prior article discussed tracking devices and software for shows (RFID, etc.), and focused on the question of what, if anything was illustrated that was not already obvious or assumed...and was it worth the cost and waste.

Finally, submitted, for your consideration: in both business and personal life, one of the enormous benefits if the internet is the eliminating of middlemen in daily activities.

Ok, enough of that for a moment...

...back to the real world and the re-emergence of live B2B tradeshows. I'm not going state they will be bigger than ever; I'm not even certain that's a good thing. But I firmly believe they will be better than ever, based in no small part by understanding what we've missed and the lessons we've learned during the lockdown.

Speaking of the old normal, I recall an industry-wide promo slogan that IMO ranked with "I Am Born" and "Call Me Ishmael" in clarity, brevity, accuracy, and impact:

"Tradeshows Work!"

It might not be a bad idea to revisit that slogan.

Finally, I urge all readers to at least glance at the following supportive notes and resources, and of course, stay tuned for the next installment in this series featuring discussion of the new 800 lb virtual Gorilla in the room: ownership of data, titled:

From Bloatware to Blightware

--- or ---

Am I Happy to See You, or Is That Just Your Hand in My Pocket?

Now here's something that's really important!:

Notes and Resources:

*Again, some larger materials require a few seconds of loading time; it's worth the wait.

(2) In addition to producing physical shows, I was an early adopter (mea culpa) and equally early rejecter, of the b2b virtual tradeshow. I was actually part of the development team for one of the earliest virtual platforms in the mid-nineties; the following video represents an example circa 2004, Click Here for Video. Plus a fact sheet for an even earlier Macintosh show. Click Here for Sheet Additionally, the following are some ads and promo pieces for Event Technology Expo. Click here for ad Click Here for VIP Ticket Insert Click Here for Profit Protector

(3) Regarding the "flame-out" of the virtual B2B tradeshow 2009-2011, the following resources should be instructive. The references found in many of the materials regarding the $ value of the market by @ 2018, along with the proclamations that virtual has truly arrived are instructive.

a. An article regarding the state of the virtual b2b tradeshow written by the author in 2011. Click Here for Article

b. A brochure for a live event Virtual Edge 2010, The Summit on Virtual Events. Click Here to View Program . The session titles should sound familiar. (Yes, the author was an attendee; the weather was perfect.

c. A link to a sample issue of a 2009 blog "It's All Virtual." Click Here for Blog. Some unique predictions worth revisiting.

d. A link to an announcements regarding Bob.TV, which was going to assemble and present the best content from events representing a variety of major industrial sectors. It actually commenced shortly after the 2012 virtual flameout, but the results were the same. A great illustration of the lack of intrinsic $ value of b2b tradeshow content independent of the full event. Click Here for Story

e. Special Bonus: "The Four Most Dangerous Words on Wall Street: This time It's Different." The previously thought to be lost transcript of a LinkedIn Virtual Event Group circa 2011 discussing the question “Why does it feel like the Virtual Events World has Stalled?" A quick glance is highly recommended, plus, there's a bonus video in one of my replies towards the end of the thread! Click here for thread.

* For additional resources regarding the history of virtual tradeshows that are too large to include in this article, please contact the author.

* To see the prior article regarding badges, registration, and tracking issues Click Here

About the author:

Rob Weissman is president of Alliance Media Strategies which provides bespoke consulting services to the exhibition, conference, and events industries, utilizing the best practices of observational analysis, scientific method, and social, behavioral, and group psychology; combined with more than two decades of hands-on event creation and management. For info regarding biz-dev, event production, speaking, and writing, visit www.alliancemediastrat.com or http://www.linkedin.com/in/robweissman

*videos edited with Shotcut.org