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Morning Hot Dish

Jason Lewis with big announcement at Fair

Good morning. A programming note: I'll be off starting tomorrow through Labor Day. The Torey Van Oot and other teammates will be filling in.

Twins now 3 up on the Indians.

Bill Guidera is officially out of the Senate race, so former U.S. Rep. Jason Lewis has cleared the field. Lewis is expected to make an announcement at 10 a.m. at the State Fair Thursday.

Headlines you never thought you'd see: Trump cancels Denmark visit over rejected Greenland sale.

Also, Trump tweeted the following, citing a Las Vegas columnist named Wayne Allyn Root, so this got my attention:

“Thank you to Wayne Allyn Root for the very nice words. 'President Trump is the greatest President for Jews and for Israel in the history of the world, not just America, he is the best President for Israel in the history of the world...and the Jewish people in Israel love him like he’s the King of Israel. They love him like he is the second coming of God...But American Jews don’t know him or like him. They don’t even know what they’re doing or saying anymore. It makes no sense!...'

Unsure of the theology here, but I once wrote a profile of Root, who is a classic Vegas P.T. Barnum character and was on the Libertarian Party presidential ticket in 2008.

Trump was criticized Tuesday for saying American Jews who vote for Democrats show "either a total lack of knowledge or great disloyalty."

Unclear to whom they're being disloyal.

Sen. Elizabeth Warren continued her Minnesota trip with a criminal justice forum and time at ReUse Warehouse of Better Futures Minnesota, Jessie Van Berkel reports. State Rep. Jamie Long, DFL-Minneapolis, led the roundtable.

JVB had some additional EXCLUSIVE Hot Dish reporting to share:

I asked about how she would handle the the Enbridge Line 3 replacement project and Twin Metals' copper-nickel mine proposal. “The ones that require federal permits the law permits the president of the United States or the administration to make a determination about those permits, and I will not approve them,” she said. She was also pressed on whether she thinks she can win in Sen. Amy Klobuchar’s home state. She did not weigh in on Klobuchar, but said, “I’m out talking to people all across America. This is the 26th state that I’ve been to, I’ve done about 126 town halls. For me, it’s about -- for all of us who are running – a chance to be able to talk about what’s happening in this country and our plans for changing ... I’m out there to talk to people. That’s what it’s all about. But we sure had a lot of fun last night.”

Back to Coolican: MinnPost has a good piece on Warren staking out the left on Minnesota environmental issues. Where Klobuchar has tried to balance environment and construction and mining jobs, Warren has staked out a very clear environmentalist position.

Regarding yesterday's note from a DFL source about DFLers keeping photos and such of the Warren rally out of their social media feeds, I got some reaction, which amounted to....that's hogwash! Writes one DFL operative:

My feed was filled with photos from people who were there from all spectrums of the party. This DFL source must not be very connected...

Here's Erin Murphy and Erin Maye Quade. TakeAction's political director Joelle Stangler with a selfie tweet. Warren filmed a short video message for toddler daughter of Will Davis, the DFL research director who is not on social media due to some recent unpleasantness.

My sense is this was a generational thing, with younger DFL types happy to see and be seen at the rally, but that could also be....hogwash!

Another tipster from the Warren rally, via The TVO: “Spotted outside Warren’s Monday night event: two very members of team Klobuchar trying to collect signatures from folks exiting the Massachusetts Democrat’s town hall.”

The TVO tweets this morning:

Amy Klobuchar returning to MN for the opening day of the State Fair tomorrow, per a release. She'll be at a booth near the Dairy Barn, aka home to the Princess Kay butter busts. Will we FINALLY hear the senator's final verdict on which butter sculpture reigns supreme?!?!

Bakst at MPR scoops an investigation of union heavy AFSCME executive director John Westmoreland. Temporary leader in place while the investigation goes on. Our own Mike Hughlett is on it.

Also via TVO, PR exec Laura Monn Ginsburg registered as a lobbyist for Minnesotans for Responsible Marijuana Regulation. She and Leili Fatehi are repping both legal cannabis and the Craft Brewers Guild. That's the holiday party invite you want!

Rep. Frank Hornstein reports from his travels in Europe:

I was in a front page story in the daily newspaper on Deggendorf, Germany this morning after meeting yesterday with three historians, the mayor and the German equivalent of a state legislator (for the record I did NOT call the press!) I stopped there to learn more about the displaced persons camp where my parents started dating after they met on a train to the camp in 1946. It was an amazing visit—-this group is very interested in the Jewish history of their town and addressing the anti Semitism there that dates back to 1300. In German I am a “US Politker!”

Here's the piece. Who can translate from the Geman?

Gov. Tim Walz will spend a lot of time at the State Fair. Today he's doing "Partnering for the Health of Minnesota" roundtable in a closed press event to discuss rising medical costs and health equity gaps with health care leaders. Nothing public.

Let's talk about the debate that is roiling the Democratic primary field: Electability. Last week I noted that we just don't know much about it, so it's probably foolish to support someone because you think he or she is most electable. It's also related to a debate also happening among Dems: Should they nominate someone who can super charge the base and bring out new and infrequent voters (mobilization)? Or someone who can flip Obama-Trump voters, as many Dems managed to do in 2018 (persuasion)?

Here's Jonathan Bernstein, political scientist, with more on the assertion that we don't know much about electability.

People are likely to decide that the candidate they like for other reasons — policies or personality or governing record or demographics — is probably also the one apt to do best against Trump. In other words, voters and party actors acting as pundits are likely to fall into a version of the pundit’s fallacy: The tendency to conclude that whatever they like is also what’s really popular.

Yair Ghitza analysis of the Catalist voter database. Key finding:

Thinking about the change from 2016 to 2018, it is clear that both mobilization and persuasion were critically important in producing this scale of victory for Democrats. When it comes to turnout, the composition of the electorate roughly “broke even” with 2016, much different than the past two midterms. But “breaking even” doesn’t explain the amount and geography of gains that Democrats saw. A large portion of gains came from people who voted in both elections, switching from supporting Trump in 2016 to supporting Democrats in 2018.

Progressive group Data for Change, which was instrumental in flipping a state House seat here, did its own analysis on the Romney-Clinton voters (suburbanites with whom Dems made big gains in 2018):

We find some possible evidence that Romney-Clinton voters might be less supportive of redistribution than consistent Democratic voters. However, on issues from hostile sexism and racial animus to concerns about a majority people of color nation, these voters resemble the rest of the Democratic coalition.

I'll have more on this in my Sunday HotDish column.

J. Chait points out the GOP switcheroo on both monetary and fiscal policy and it is indeed striking.

Interesting piece in the Atlantic about how the meritocracy has made even the so-called winners totally miserable. I like any argument that that confirms my flagging ambition and embrace of mediocrity!

I get voicemails: "Good afternoon patrick, this is mr -- . America should have a free sterilization program! I took care of that 40 years ago. Free sterilization for anyone who wants it!"

Enjoy the State Fair if you dare brave it. (Anyone have my Hall and Oates tickets at a decent price?) Best of luck to your Twins though I will be cheering on the Indians. Go Irish. Ye Phishheads: Good luck with the prairie dog plague. Happy birthday to Leila. What else? Put down your phone and breathe in the last of summer.

Correspond: patrick.coolican@startribune.com.

Have a great day all!

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Trump administration moves to end limits on child detention

The decision that will almost certainly lead to a new court fight over the government's ability to hold migrant families until their cases are decided.

Trump: Any Jew voting Democratic is uninformed or disloyal

Trump's claim triggered a quick uproar from critics who said the Republican president was trading in anti-Semitic stereotypes.