The 2026 Midterm Elections | November 3, 2026

As we approach the November 3 midterm elections, JEI is launching a new series
examining key races across the country. This is the second installment of our key/swing state-by-state election outlook. From now until Election Day, we will take a closer look at individual states, the contests that could shape the balance of power in Washington, and the political trends that may help explain the results.

 

Our goal is to provide nonpartisan insight into the candidates, constituencies, and issues shaping the election—not to predict outcomes with certainty or tell voters how to vote. Our purpose is to inform, provide context, and encourage a deeper understanding of the forces shaping American politics.

 

Last week, we looked at Florida. Our next stop is Michigan in JEI's state-by-state election outlook. We examine a few key states, focusing on the races most likely to shape Congress, the political forces driving those contests, and the implications for Jewish voters and the broader electorate. For JEI, the Michigan race is particularly relevant to understanding how Jewish voters evaluate representation, party affiliation, and the relationship between communal concerns and the broader political agenda.

 

As always, JEI will approach these elections with a commitment to nonpartisan analysis and a careful examination of the data.

JEI Examines Michigan:  A Battleground State at
the Center of the National Debate

Michigan, the Great Lakes State, remains one of the country's most consequential battlegrounds. Early voting for Michigan begins tomorrow, Saturday, October 24, but absentee voting began in late September. Voters can look up their assigned early voting site up to 60 days before Election Day.

 

Donald Trump carried Michigan in 2024 by a narrow margin, demonstrating the state's competitive political landscape. In 2026, the open U.S. Senate seat, the governor's race, and a competitive set of congressional contests will test both parties' ability to mobilize their supporters and appeal to voters outside their traditional bases.

 

According to a Brandeis University American Jewish Population Project study for the Jewish Electorate Institute (JEI), Michigan had approximately 105,000 Jewish adults in 2020—about 1.4% of its voting-age population. This figure is a demographic benchmark, not a current population count. Michigan, which had 16 electoral votes in 2020 and now has 15, remains a key national battleground. Its Jewish population is concentrated mainly in metropolitan Detroit, with additional communities in Ann Arbor and Lansing.

 

That geographic concentration exists within a broader electorate that is politically and economically diverse. Michigan includes urban centers, working-class suburbs, manufacturing communities, college towns, and rural areas with varied priorities. Jobs, inflation, the cost of living, healthcare, education, and immigration are among the issues shaping the 2026 campaigns. These statewide concerns provide the broader context in which debates affecting Jewish voters and other communities are unfolding.

 

Michigan also reflects the intersection of national Jewish political concerns with the state’s distinctive demographic landscape. Alongside its substantial Jewish population in metropolitan Detroit, Michigan has a large Arab American community, particularly in and around Dearborn. As a result, the war in Gaza, U.S. military assistance to Israel, rising antisemitism, campus protests, and the broader U.S.–Israel relationship has become prominent issues in the state’s closely contested political discourse.

 

These issues have shaped the general-election debate and intensified divisions within the Democratic Party. The party’s centrist, pro-Israel wing has faced growing pressure from progressives who oppose current U.S. military assistance to Israel. At the same time, Republicans have sought to make those divisions central to the general election. In Michigan, those intra-party tensions are layered onto the state’s broader economic, demographic, and regional divides, making the Jewish vote part of a larger and highly contested political landscape.

 

These issues have contributed to divisions within the Democratic Party, particularly between its more centrist, pro-Israel wing and progressive candidates who oppose current U.S. military assistance to Israel. Republicans have sought to make those divisions a central feature of the general election.

 

JEI examines three races that illustrate these competing dynamics: the open U.S. Senate seat, the governor's race, and the open 11th Congressional District seat currently held by Representative Haley Stevens, who lost to Dr. Abdul El Sayed in the Democratic Senate Primary on August 4, 2026.

Michigan's U.S. Senate Race: A Toss-Up with Potential National Consequences

Democratic Senator Gary Peters is retiring, leaving an open seat in a state that could help determine control of the Senate. Democrat Abdul El-Sayed, a physician, faces Republican Mike Rogers, a former congressman who previously chaired the House Intelligence Committee.

 

El-Sayed narrowly defeated Representative Haley Stevens in the August Democratic primary. The contest highlighted divisions within the party over Israel, campaign spending, and whether a progressive or more centrist approach would best represent Michigan Democrats.

 

The general election has become a closely watched national and international contest. Early October polling showed El-Sayed with leads ranging from one to seven percentage points in some surveys, although polls vary and should not be interpreted as predictions. The race has also drawn substantial outside spending, with Republicans investing heavily in an effort to win the open seat.

Abdul El-Sayed (D)

Dr. Abdul El-Sayed is a physician and public health advocate. He previously ran for governor in 2018, when he lost the Democratic primary to Gretchen Whitmer. His 2026 Senate campaign has emphasized healthcare, economic inequality, campaign finance reform, and a more expansive role for government in addressing the needs of working families. In an interview with The Wall Street Journal, when asked about the DSA (Democratic Socialists of America), he stated, “I’m not technically or practically DSA,” despite JTA (Jewish Telegraph Agency) printing that he has attended and spoken at events hosted by the DSA and received campaign support from its members. According to WFMD, the local and syndicate AM news/talk radio station, DSA has publicly referred to El Sayed as “long-time friend,” “ally,” and “comrade.”

 

He recently told ABC News Live Prime, in an interview that “Israel is "not actually our friend" and no longer considers the country an American ally, comparing the bilateral relationship to a bad personal friendship that drains U.S. resources and draws the country into unwanted conflicts.

 

El-Sayed has made Medicare for All a central policy proposal. He argues that healthcare should be treated as a public good rather than primarily as a market commodity. In 2012, he published an essay titled “The Pink Ribbon Lobby and Everyone Else,” in a public health journal in which he critiqued how single-disease lobbying influences National Institutes of Health funding, writing that it was "disturbing" that research dollars skew toward breast cancer over more fatal conditions due to the “social power and privilege of its demographic” and argued that breast cancer research was overfunded. He has also emphasized the influence of corporate interests and major donors in American politics, presenting his candidacy as a challenge to established political and financial institutions.

 

His campaign received support from progressive and more centrist national and statewide figures, including Former President Barack Obama, former Vice President Kamala Harris, Senators Bernie Sanders, Chris Van Hollen, Elissa Slotkin, and Chuck Schumer, Governor Gretchen Whitmer, Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who gave his campaign $1 million from her political war chest according to The New York Times, and both Representative Haley Stevens and State Senator Mallory McMorrow, who ran against him in the Democratic Senate primary race.

 

El-Sayed's candidacy has attracted voters who support a more progressive Democratic agenda, while raising questions among other Democrats about his ability to unite constituencies that supported Stevens in the primary.

  

El-Sayed's positions on Israel have been among the most consequential and controversial aspects of his campaign. He has characterized Israel's conduct in Gaza as genocide and called for an end to U.S. military aid to Israel.

 

El-Sayed has also faced scrutiny over his association with online political commentator Hasan Piker, whose statements about Israel and Jewish Americans have drawn widespread criticism. El-Sayed has subsequently sought to distance himself from Piker. During the general-election campaign, El-Sayed has defended his own record and rejected allegations by Rogers and Republican allies suggesting ties to terrorism. Those allegations have been disputed by El-Sayed, and they should not be treated as facts.

 

In an October 8 debate, El-Sayed reiterated his opposition to unconditional U.S. military assistance to foreign governments. Asked about Israel and Iran, he said both had proved dangerous in their own ways. He also defended his response to questions about the October 7 attacks, saying he had condemned them but did not want to turn other people's suffering into political theater.

 

For Jewish voters, key questions include how El-Sayed would approach Israel's security, U.S. military assistance, antisemitism, and the protection of Jewish communities. After the attack at Temple Israel, his response was “Hurt people hurt people.” He has since apologized for that statement. His campaign presents his foreign policy as part of a broader effort to prioritize domestic needs and reconsider American military commitments abroad. Critics argue that ending military assistance to Israel would weaken an important U.S. ally and could undermine Israeli security.

Mike Rogers (R)

Mike Rogers represented Michigan in Congress from 2001 to 2015, serving as chair of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence. His background in national security and intelligence is central to his Senate campaign. He previously ran for the Senate in 2024, narrowly losing to Democrat Elissa Slotkin.

 

During his 14 years in Congress, Rogers maintained a consistent anti-abortion voting record, although his recent campaign messaging has emphasized that abortion laws should be determined by individual states. He has been consistent in his strong pro-Israel position, and in condemning antisemitism.

 

According to GLAAD’s Accountability Profile, Reproductive Freedom for All  (formerly NARAL), the non-profit organization focused on LGBTQ advocacy and cultural change, ranked Rogers every year through his tenure in Congress. According to the scores from 2001-2015, Rogers consistently also opposed expanded protections and rights for LGBTQ people. He repeatedly voted against expanding federal hate crime laws to include crimes motivated by sexual orientation or gender identity. He opposed marriage equality, supported constitutional amendments defining marriage exclusively as a union between a man and a woman, argued that denying same-sex couples the right to marry was not discriminatory because the right had never existed, and compared same-sex marriage to polygamy. The profile also reported that Rogers pledged to support legislation reversing the Biden administration's LGBTQ protections, particularly those involving Title IX and transgender participation in sports. Rogers stated, “We're going to take the Senate, we're going to keep the House, and we're going to win the White House, and we're going to fix Title IX.” He argued that Title IX's purpose was to ensure equal athletic opportunities for women.

 

Rogers's campaign emphasizes national security, economic growth, immigration enforcement, and reducing what he considers unnecessary government spending and regulation. According to an October 20, 2026, JTA report, he has aligned himself with President Trump's broader agenda while seeking to distinguish himself on issues affecting Michigan's economy, particularly tariffs and the cost of living. As Rogers stated, “I'm not Trump. And I don't plan to be Trump when I get to Washington.” Although broadly aligned with Trump, Rogers has sought to distinguish himself from certain administration policies, particularly tariffs, while maintaining support for other elements of the president's domestic and foreign policy agenda.

 

He has identified several areas of disagreement with Trump, including the joint U.S.-Israeli war in Iran, which Rogers initially supported but now believes should conclude. “I argue we met our objectives. Don't hang out there very long,” he said.

The CBS-affiliated television station (Channel 6) based in Lansing, Michigan, WLNS.COM, reported that during the October 8, 2026 Senate debate, Rogers criticized the economic consequences of tariffs and called for an end to the tariff war with Canada, arguing that Washington's policies must better serve Michigan families and businesses.

 

Rogers has also challenged Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed's positions on national security, making his views on Israel and his political associations central campaign issues. El-Sayed has rejected allegations of supposed ties to terrorism.

Rogers has presented himself as a strong supporter of the U.S.–Israel relationship and has criticized El-Sayed's opposition to American military assistance to Israel. During the October debate, Rogers said Israel would lose his support if it contemplated using nuclear weapons, while challenging El-Sayed over whether the United States should provide defensive weapons if Israel were attacked.

  

Rogers has presented himself as a supporter of the U.S.–Israel relationship and has criticized El-Sayed's opposition to American military assistance to Israel. In the October debate referenced above, Rogers said “Israel would lose his support if it contemplated using nuclear weapons,” while challenging El-Sayed over whether the United States should provide defensive weapons if Israel were attacked. In the same October 20, 2026 JTA report, he stated that “But if you have somebody that wants to eliminate, you know, ‘from the river to the sea,’ last I checked, that’s just about every Jew that lives in Israel. There’s no more clear, brighter line than that.”

 

Rogers's congressional record and positions on Iran, intelligence, terrorism, and American alliances provide a framework for evaluating his approach to Israel's security. His campaign characterizes the U.S.–Israel relationship as a strategic partnership that should endure despite disagreements over Israel's conduct of the war in Gaza.

 

For Jewish voters, central considerations include the extent of Rogers's commitment to military and diplomatic assistance to Israel, his approach to combating antisemitism, and how his national security priorities would shape America's relationship with Israel and other regional partners.

 

Why It Matters

 

The Senate determines whether legislation advances, how federal spending is negotiated, and whether presidential nominees are confirmed. Republicans currently hold a majority, and Michigan is among the states that could determine whether Democrats can regain control of the chamber.

 

The race also illustrates a broader debate within American politics over the relationship between domestic priorities and foreign policy. Voters are weighing healthcare and economic issues alongside disagreements over Israel, military assistance, and the definition of an effective national security strategy.

 

For JEI, the contest provides an opportunity to examine how Jewish voters assess candidates whose views on Israel differ sharply, including how those views intersect with party affiliation, antisemitism, and other domestic policy concerns.

Michigan's Gubernatorial Race: Who Will Succeed Gretchen Whitmer?

Michigan voters will elect a new governor because Democratic Governor Gretchen Whitmer is term-limited. The major-party candidates are Democratic Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson and Republican Representative John James.

 

The contest will determine the direction of state policy on education, healthcare, economic development, taxes, public safety, and election administration. The candidates have also clashed over the effects of federal policies on Michigan families, including tariffs, healthcare spending, and energy costs. 

 

Both gubernatorial candidates have condemned antisemitism and expressed concern for Michigan’s Jewish community. 

Jocelyn Benson (D)

Benson has served as Michigan's secretary of state since 2019. Before entering statewide office, she was a law professor and worked on election administration and voting rights. Her public record has emphasized election security, voter access, and the administration of elections.

 

According to Benson’s gubernatorial campaign, she focuses on affordability, education, healthcare, housing, childcare, and economic growth. She has promised to make improving public education a central priority, including changes to school funding and efforts to improve Michigan's performance nationally.

 

The Michigan Independent reported on Benson’s policy rollout statements; her "Michigan Education Guarantee" includes moving away from a one-size-fits-all model toward an equitable, weighted funding system, increasing teacher base salaries to $60,000, and driving Michigan's schools into the top 10 performing states nationally.

 

During the October 6 gubernatorial debate, WOOD-TV in Grand Rapids reported that Benson called for suspending Michigan's gas tax to provide relief to motorists. She has argued that federal policies supported by James, including tariffs and spending reductions, have contributed to higher costs for Michigan families.

 

She has criticized James's votes on federal healthcare and nutrition assistance programs, arguing that reductions in Medicaid and other support could hurt seniors, children, and low-income families. James disputes her broader characterization of his policies and has emphasized economic growth, reducing regulation, and his approach to public spending.

 

Benson's campaign presents her as an experienced state official who would continue efforts to improve government services while addressing affordability and protecting individual rights. Reporting on the debate, WOOD-TV reported that Benson called for a statewide moratorium on new data centers until guardrails (including local control and water/energy protections) are set, accusing James of financial ties and voting patterns favoring them. James pushed back, demanding strict local control, prioritizing brownfields over farmland, and accusing Benson's family of profiting from a Saline data center project. It also reported that Benson proposed negotiating subnational agreements with Canada to eliminate tariffs—which she characterized as a "John James tax". James countered that he has never voted for Canadian tariffs and proposed a Trade Act to protect local jobs.

 

On fact-checking, Bridge Michigan, the nonpartisan, nonprofit news source, reported that both Benson and John James, her opponent, expressed openness to suspending state and federal gas taxes to lower high prices at the pump. Benson noted she is open to a state gas tax holiday, while James proposed eliminating the state income tax by cutting $3 billion in waste and using $550 million from the MEDC to offset gas tax relief.

 

The Detroit Free Press, endorsed Benson on October 4, 2026. Two days later covering the October 6, 2026 debate, it reported that Benson sought to tie James closely to President Donald Trump (who endorsed James), while James sought to tie Benson to the administration of current Governor Gretchen Whitmer.

John James (R)

James represents Michigan's 10th Congressional District and is a businessman and Army veteran. He previously ran for the U.S. Senate in 2018 and 2020 before winning election to the House of Representatives in 2022.

 

James's campaign emphasizes economic opportunity, public safety, tax and regulatory policy, and conservative approaches to government. He has aligned himself with President Trump's agenda, arguing that reducing regulation and encouraging investment can strengthen Michigan's economy.

 

In the gubernatorial debates, James has emphasized the need to lower costs, improve government efficiency, and expand economic opportunities. He has defended his approach to federal spending and opposed proposals that he believes would impose unnecessary restrictions on businesses.

 

James has also addressed energy and infrastructure issues. During the October 6 debate, he said he would not pursue a statewide moratorium on data centers, despite previous statements from his campaign on the issue. The exchange highlighted differences between the candidates over energy demand, economic development, and how Michigan should manage new technology investments.

 

On federal policy, James has supported the Trump administration on a range of issues, including tariffs and spending measures. During the October gubernatorial debates, he defended his national security record but also called for an end to the Iran war and harmful tariffs. Benson has argued that his votes and his support for the administration have contributed.

 

Policy Issues, Israel and antisemitism

 

Benson condemned the March 2026 attack on Temple Israel in West Bloomfield and urged Michiganders to confront hatred and violence.

 

She stated, “The moment was terrifying and a reminder of our collective responsibility to stand up to hate and violence in all its forms. I am so grateful for the courage and dedication of first responders who are working to keep everyone safe. As Michiganders, we have a responsibility in this moment to be a light in the darkness, care for one another, and ensure we all work together in unison for a better world.”

 

 In 2019, she visited Israel with a bipartisan election-security delegation which drew criticism from the Michigan Arab-American community.  She acknowledged Michigan’s longstanding relationship with Israel, and in January 2025, welcomed the Israel-Hamas ceasefire while expressing hope for the hostages’ return and lasting peace in Israel and Palestine. Her publicly documented statements do not establish a detailed position on U.S. military assistance to Israel or the Israeli government’s conduct in Gaza.

 

James has repeatedly condemned antisemitism and expressed strong support for Israel. In reaction to the October 7, 2023 barbaric atrocities, he stated, “Antisemitism is evil," and “Israel has every right to defend itself. Funding Iran on 9/11 was an incalculable error. I call on President Joe Biden to call out antisemites and extremists in his own ranks and use every resource at his disposal to hold the perpetrators of this attack accountable. There must be no daylight between the United States of America and our friendship with Israel.”  

 

As a member of Congress, he supported additional U.S. assistance to Israel and voted for a $14.4 billion supplemental aid package for Israel, describing it as assistance critical to Israel’s security. He affirmed Israel’s right to defend itself after the October 7 Hamas attacks, and traveled to Israel to meet government officials and families of hostages. After the March 2026 attack on Temple Israel, he condemned antisemitic violence and visited the synagogue, emphasizing the protection of Jewish communities and institutions.

 

Why It Matters

 

The Governor has substantial influence over state education policy, the budget, economic development, public safety, and the administration of state government. The election will help determine whether Michigan continues under Democratic leadership or shifts to a Republican administration.

 

The race also provides a test of how voters evaluate the relationship between state and federal policy. Benson has emphasized the effects of federal decisions on Michigan households, while James has defended a conservative approach centered on economic growth, regulation, and government spending.

 

For Jewish voters, the contest offers an opportunity to evaluate the candidates' records on antisemitism, religious freedom, community security, and the broader issues that affect Jewish families and institutions in Michigan.

Michigan's 11th Congressional District: A Jewish Candidate Seeks Haley Stevens's Seat

Representative Haley Stevens lost the primary for the U.S. Senate. Her open 11th Congressional District seat has attracted particular attention because Democratic nominee Jeremy Moss is Jewish and has built a record in the Michigan legislature on issues affecting Jewish communities. Ethan Baker, his opponent, is the Mayor of Troy, Michigan. The district includes communities in Oakland County and surrounding areas, with a history of supporting Democratic congressional candidates. Stevens won reelection in 2024 with approximately 58% of the vote. The 2026 contest will determine who represents the district after her departure.

Jeremy Moss (D)

Moss, a state senator from Bloomfield Township, won the Democratic primary on August 4 in a four-way contest. He will face Republican nominee Ethan Baker, the mayor of Troy, in the November general election.

 

The district includes communities in Oakland County and surrounding areas, with a history of supporting Democratic congressional candidates. Stevens won reelection in 2024 with approximately 58% of the vote. The 2026 contest will determine who represents the district after her departure.

 

Moss, a Democrat, serves in the Michigan Senate and has represented communities in the Detroit metropolitan area. He is a Jewish lawmaker whose public career has included work on state legislation, civil rights, and issues affecting the Jewish community.

 

Moss's campaign emphasizes protecting access to healthcare, supporting public education, strengthening the economy, and defending civil rights. His legislative experience and familiarity with state government are central elements of his candidacy.

 

His victory in the Democratic primary followed a competitive four-candidate race. He will now seek to translate his state-level experience into a congressional campaign focused on both national policy and the needs of his district.

 

Ethan Baker (R)

Ethan Baker, Mayor of Troy, Michigan, is making his experience in municipal government a central feature of his campaign, which emphasizes local leadership and the practical concerns of residents and businesses.

 

As Mayor, Baker has worked on local government issues, public services,

economic development, and municipal administration. His campaign seeks to offer

voters an alternative to Democratic representation in a district that has generally

supported Democrats in recent congressional elections.

Baker's policy priorities include economic opportunity, public safety, and

government accountability. The general-election campaign will provide voters with

an opportunity to compare his approach to local and federal policy with Moss's

experience in the state legislature.

 

For Jewish voters seeking to better understand Ethan Baker's positions, his

general policy priorities his public statements are available in the League of

Women Voters’ Voter Guide.

 

Baker’s candidacy raises broader questions about the role of local-government

experience in congressional service and whether voters in the district want to

continue Democratic representation or choose a Republican alternative.

 

Policy Issues, Israel, and antisemitism

 

Moss has been identified as a pro-Israel candidate and has received support from members of Michigan's Jewish community. Moss has spoken publicly about antisemitism and the importance of protecting Jewish communities. He has also faced political controversy over the intersection of his Jewish identity and his views on Israel. During the 2026 primary, a recording circulated by an opponent was challenged by Moss, who described the audio as manipulated.

 

For Jewish voters, Moss's candidacy provides an opportunity to consider how a Jewish member of Congress would approach issues such as antisemitism, Israel's security, religious freedom, and civil rights. His record in the Michigan Senate includes Michigan Senate Resolution 78 (October 18, 2023).

 

Moss introduced a resolution addressing the Israel-Hamas war that affirmed the dignity of Israeli and Palestinian civilians and condemned antisemitism and Islamophobia. It was adopted by the Senate.  Michigan Senate Resolution 116 (May 2, 2024). Moss introduced Michigan Senate Resolution 116 (May 2, 2024), a resolution recognizing Holocaust Remembrance Day, which the Senate adopted. On April 2024, in a Senate floor speech, He condemned antisemitism from both the political left and right and criticized the use of “Zionist” as a slur. Michigan Advance coverage, and in the same interview in 2025 with the Jewish Insider, Moss expressed support for maintaining the U.S.–Israel relationship and described his work on Holocaust education in Michigan schools. Public policy commitments are important sources for evaluating those questions.

 

Baker's policy priorities include economic opportunity, public safety, and

government accountability. The general-election campaign will provide voters with

an opportunity to compare his approach to local and federal policy with Moss's

experience in the state legislature. Our review of his campaign materials,

public statements, and local government record found limited information about his

specific positions on Israel, antisemitism, and religious freedom. Consequently, we

are unable to provide a clear assessment of his views on these issues.

 

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Our JEI family wishes you a healthy, safe and peaceful Shabbat, 

Barbara Goldberg Goldman
Chair | JEI

Jewish Americans represent a critically important segment of the American electorate. JEI believes that it is important for Jewish voices to be heard at the polling place in order to ensure that the community's concerns are adequately represented by elected officials.