March Newsletter

Erbil, Kurdistan Region. (Credit: Levi Meir Clancy)

Increasing production alone cannot resolve Iraq's fundamentally flawed energy infrastructure. Currently, ninety percent of oil exports are routed south through Basra to the Persian Gulf and then through the Strait of Hormuz to a single buyer. Each confrontation involving Iran, the United States, and Gulf Arab states further constricts this corridor. The necessity of diversification is clear; decisive action is required before an impending crisis imposes its own solution. The strategic alternative lies to the north, via the Kurdistan Region of Iraq. Failure to secure this route constitutes one of the most significant unforced errors in Middle Eastern energy policy. 

The Iraq-Turkey Pipeline extends from Kirkuk through the Kurdistan Region of Iraq to the Turkish Mediterranean port of Ceyhan, serving as Iraq's only land-based export route that completely bypasses the Gulf. Although it cannot replace southern exports, full operation could enable exports of up to 900,000 barrels per day. This is the country's sole hedge against a Hormuz closure. Such a closure would strand the bulk of Iraq's fiscal revenue at sea. Yet the pipeline sat idle or throttled for long stretches, paralyzed by political deadlock among Baghdad, Erbil, and Ankara. For a nation that derives over ninety percent of its budget from oil, neglecting this corridor constitutes a significant failure of governance. 

This neglect aligns with the interests of certain domestic and regional actors. Since the onset of the 2026 Iran war, the Kurdistan Region of Iraq has experienced over 500 drone and missile attacks from Iran-backed Shia militia groups and direct strikes by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, continuing a pattern of aggression dating back to 2022. This sustained campaign seeks to destabilize governance, expel foreign operators, and suppress independent energy development in northern Iraq. The Khor Mor gas field, operated by Dana Gas and its Pearl Petroleum partners, has been targeted at least eleven times between 2022 and 2025, with individual strikes reducing the Kurdistan Region's power output by up to 80 percent. These attacks communicate to energy investors that operations in the region entail significant physical risk, not merely financial uncertainty. Each successful attack further entrenches Iraq's dependence on Iranian gas imports, valued at $4-5 billion annually under widely criticized terms. Iran's objective is to limit the Kurdistan Region's energy influence, employing militia campaigns as instruments of energy coercion to undermine the region's energy sector. 

Baghdad has taken minimal action to counter these developments. The fiscal relationship with the Kurdistan Region of Iraq is characterized by delayed monthly transfers, fluctuating revenue formulas, and conditions that shift with each government cycle. The Federal Supreme Court's February 2022 ruling against the KRI's independent Oil and Gas Law has created an unresolved legal vacuum, which deters upstream investment. International oil companies considering multi-billion-dollar investments in KRI exploration require contract enforceability, regulatory stability, and a reliable fiscal framework, none of which are currently provided. As investor confidence diminishes, the likelihood of developing the KRI's 25 trillion cubic feet of proven gas reserves—part of a resource base the Kurdistan Regional Government estimates at up to 200 trillion cubic feet—also declines. If developed at scale, these reserves could eliminate Iraq's dependence on Iranian gas within a decade. 

Progress requires the enactment of a permanent Federal Hydrocarbon Law that addresses three key priorities. First, the law should explicitly secure the Kurdistan Region of Iraq's constitutional rights to manage upstream development, thereby enabling international oil companies to invest with legal certainty. Second, it should mandate the integration of KRI export capacity, particularly the Iraq-Turkey Pipeline, into national energy planning and recognize the northern route as a strategic asset. Third, the law should establish a transparent, formula-based revenue-sharing mechanism to replace political negotiations over budget transfers, with this mechanism codified in statute. 

These measures should not be interpreted as concessions of Kurdish autonomy. Achieving lasting stability requires prioritizing a functional northern corridor as a critical component of Iraq's energy security. Bringing this corridor online necessitates a political settlement with the Kurdistan Regional Government, which is only possible if Baghdad ceases to regard Kurdistan as a threat. 

Baghdad faces two strategic options: it can either continue to depend on a single chokepoint and a hostile supplier, a strategy that undermines national interests and benefits those seeking Iraq's fragmentation, or it can partner with the Kurdistan Region to diversify its export route and strengthen the country's energy sector. The latter approach offers a constructive path toward long-term stability and growth.

Yerevan Saeed,

Barzani Scholar-in-Residence

Director of the Global Kurdish Initiative for Peace

Director Yerevan Saeed held in-person and virtual meetings with a wide range of Middle East-focused stakeholders. He briefed diplomats, World Bank staffers, senior KRG officials, and foreign government counterparts on how the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict and growing regional tensions could affect Iraq and the Kurdistan Region, and what the implications are for Washington. 

Saeed joined a panel at the Foreign Policy Research Institute titled "Iraq as a Frontline: Militias and the Risks to Iraq's Stability in a Regional War." He spoke with CNN International and Al Jazeera on reports of a CIA strategy to arm Kurds in Iran, offering context on what it could mean for the wider region. He also appeared on NRT's prime evening program and in expert discussions on Rudaw and Kurdistan 24, covering the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict. 

Alongside his media work, Saeed has been writing on some of the harder policy questions shaping the region. He recently examined the long record of U.S. support for Kurdish movements falling short, particularly as speculation grows around a potential U.S.-backed Kurdish uprising in Iran. He has written on what a genuine Kurdish-U.S. partnership in Iran would actually require, the strain regional conflict is placing on Iraq's oil exports, and why redeployment of Peshmerga forces to disputed territories matters for Kurdistan's stability and the safety of U.S. forces on the ground. 

On March 23, the Global Kurdish Initiative for Peace hosted its third annual Newroz reception, bringing diverse communities together to celebrate the Kurdish New Year with music, food, and cultural festivities.

Newroz marks the arrival of spring and falls on the spring equinox each year. While many cultures and ethnic groups across the Middle East and Central Asia celebrate the holiday as a symbol of renewal and hope, it holds a uniquely powerful meaning for Kurds. More than a seasonal celebration, Newroz is a deeply political occasion for the Kurdish people, a moment to reaffirm their identity, resilience, and shared aspirations in the face of ongoing struggles for recognition.

Aheen Hajibadri published an article with the International Affairs Forum titled "The Kurdish Dilemma: Navigating Pathways to Statehood Amidst Regional War." In the article, she argues that the war in Iran causes Kurds to face a dilemma between pursuing statehood or avoiding another conflict in which they risk being abandoned.

Sirwan Kajjo published an article with the Middle East Forum titled "The Kurds’ Washington Dilemma." In the article, he argues that while Kurds in Iran might look toward a partnership with the United States, it comes with risks.

Anthony Avice Du Buisson published an article with the Jerusalem Post titled "Kurds unite for a federal Iran: The only path to sustainable change." In the article, he argues that only a federal Iran built on partnership with minorities can ensure lasting regime change and stability.

"For me, my work is always about feminism and supporting women. I also carry my Kurdish identity with me and try to use it to collaborate with and support women in other communities."

Tara Abdullah grew up in Sulaymaniyah and was always drawn to art, even though many around her encouraged her to give it up. She chose not to. 

After studying fine arts, she began working in performance and installation. Her art challenged her society’s taboos, including violence against women, the politics of the female body, and shame passed down through generations. 

In her Feminine Project, she displayed clothing from survivors of violence in public, turning private pain into something everyone had to see. Her Voice Project shared women's testimonies across cities, allowing their words to be heard in new places. The reaction was swift and intense, including backlash and legal threats. In the end, she had to leave Iraq. 

Abdullah’s work is based on a simple idea: women’s private experiences should be visible. She believes shame is used as a tool, and that art can break it down. Her installations have received international attention through exhibitions, awards, and residencies, although they are still controversial in her home country. 

In this interview, she talks about the personal cost of making challenging art, what keeps her going, and how the real stories of women influence her work. 

"What continues to draw me to journalism is its dynamic nature. There is always something new to uncover, question, and explain."

Issa Sofi's path from a small mountain town in Kurdistan to the press corridors of Washington, D.C. has been unconventional.

Born in 1991 during the Kurdish uprising against Saddam Hussein, Sofi was raised in Choman, a remote community near the Iranian border. Although the outside world seemed distant, the political stakes in his homeland were ever-present. 

Initially, Sofi pursued studies in petroleum engineering, a practical and respected career path in the Kurdistan Region. However, the onset of the Arab Spring across the Middle East marked a turning point. The widespread debates and upheaval inspired a belief that ordinary individuals could influence their own narratives. Motivated by these events, Sofi began writing and investigating, ultimately committing himself to journalism. 

Among his earliest assignments, Sofi traveled to the mountainous border between Iraq and Iran to document the lives of kulbars, Kurdish porters who transport heavy goods across hazardous terrain for minimal compensation, often risking their lives. This experience demonstrated the power of journalism to illuminate overlooked realities. 

Currently, he reports on U.S. foreign policy from Washington as a correspondent for Kurdistan 24 and is pursuing graduate studies in International Affairs Policy and Analysis at American University. He is also a Barzani Peace Fellow. In this interview, he discusses his decision to leave the oil industry, the significance of reporting on American power from a Kurdish perspective, and the ongoing need for greater representation of Kurdish voices in global discourse. 

Iraq

Since the onset of the war in Iran, the Kurdistan Region has experienced over 500 drone and missile attacks. On March 28, a drone targeted the residence of Kurdistan Region President Nechirvan Barzani. Peshmerga bases in Erbil and Al-Sulaymaniyah were also attacked, resulting in the killing of six Peshmerga and wounding dozens of others. The attacks have also extensively targeted Kurdistan’s infrastructure. Despite ongoing instability, Baghdad and Erbil reached an agreement in mid-March to resume oil exports through Turkey's Ceyhan port. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio thanked KRG Prime Minister Masrour Barzani for supporting Iraqi oil exports to global markets. 

Türkiye

On March 30, the pro-Kurdish DEM Party and leftist groups declared the "goodwill" phase in Türkiye’s Kurdish peace effort over, demanding concrete action to stop government trustees from replacing elected municipal officials, enforce existing court rulings, and advance reform legislation. Earlier in March, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan praised the Kurdistan Region for staying neutral in the war in Iran and warned other leaders against provoking regional conflict.  

Syria

Months after the January integration deal between the Syrian government and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF, a Kurdish-led coalition), key terms remain unimplemented, with the city of Kobani still under siege and 601 detainees held by Damascus. On March 19, the two sides exchanged 300 prisoners. SDF Commander-in-Chief Mazloum Abdi said Damascus holds nearly 1,100 civilian and military detainees from northeast Syria. On March 14, the Kurdish Red Crescent, a humanitarian organization, delivered food, medicine, and clothing to Kobani residents as the siege continued. 

Iran

Iran has intensified its crackdown on domestic dissent, with sources reporting increased pressure in areas with large Kurdish populations. Earlier this month, President Trump said he told Kurdish forces, a term commonly referring to Kurdish armed groups, not to enter the conflict, reversing his earlier suggestion that it would be “wonderful” if they crossed into Iran to attack security forces. Iranian Kurdish opposition groups continue to face drone and missile attacks on their bases in Iraq. 

Established in honor of the Kurdish leader Mustafa Barzani, the Global Kurdish Initiative for Peace offers the Barzani Peace Fellowship, a prestigious scholarship for graduate students dedicated to Kurdish affairs. Beyond financial support, it empowers future leaders through academic excellence, professional development, and opportunities to engage directly with the program and its mission for peace.

The Global Kurdish Initiative for Peace

4400 Massachusetts Avenue, NW,

Washington, D.C. 20016