Your efforts within your FRMS to control and reduce overall fatigue risk relies heavily on your analytics capabilities. Understanding why, where and when risk is at abnormal level is crucial for deciding how to best address it. Analytics capabilities comes in four flavours:
Descriptive analytics answers the question of what happened. For instance, learning when, where and why you had higher fatigue risk in the rosters of the previous months operated - from fatigue reports (if they are believed to be representative) and/or an analysis by a validated bio-mathematical fatigue model such as BAM. Or gaining insight from a detailed fatigue data collection where crew gather sleep, assessment and performance data.
Diagnostic analytics allows you to measure against other data to answer the question of why something happened. Thanks to diagnostic analytics, you can drill down to find out dependencies and to identify patterns. Such as identifying certain flights that frequently end up in a poor roster context - and understanding what characterise that context.
Predictive analytics tells what is likely to happen. It uses the findings of descriptive and diagnostic analytics to detect tendencies, clusters and exceptions, and to predict future trends, which makes it a valuable tool for forecasting. Thanks to predictive analytics and the proactive approach it enables, an operator can forecast fatigue risk using a bio-mathematical model and/or complementing metrics in upcoming planned rosters and adjust them accordingly to prevent or reduce risk.
Prescriptive analytics finally, can prescribe what action to take to eliminate a future problem or take full advantage of a promising trend. An example of prescriptive analytics in this context is to use predictions from a fatigue model such as BAM to proactively reduce risk while the crew pairings and rosters are produced (during optimization).
Are you underwhelmed with your current capabilities regarding the above? Welcome to drop us an email (link) and we will arrange a demo taking you through Jeppesen Concert, CrewAlert Pro and BAM.
