Welcome to this month's edition of the Center for Health Decision Science (CHDS) newsletter. Explore recent decision science publications, upcoming seminars, and news within the field.

Share this newsletter with others and join the mailing list to stay informed.

Speakers share their own perspectives; they do not speak for the Center for Health Decision Science or for Harvard University.

Shioda Kayoko

December 9, 1:00 PM EST

Virtual; registration required

Target trial emulation (TTE) is a causal inference framework that uses observational data to emulate a randomized trial. It has become a valuable tool for evaluating treatments and health interventions when randomized trials are not feasible. However, applying TTE to infectious diseases requires caution due to transmission-related interference. In this talk, Dr. Shioda will illustrate how TTE can identify optimal vaccine dosing schedules, including for COVID-19, and discuss current methodological limitations and possible solutions.

CHDS faculty Nicolas Menzies and colleagues projected how funding cuts from US bilateral health aid and The Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis, and Malaria could lead to increases in pediatric tuberculosis cases and deaths in a recent publication in The Lancet Child & Adolescent Health.

CHDS researchers Emily Burger, Stephen Sy, Mary Caroline Regan, and Jane Kim, as well as former postdoctoral fellow Jenny Spencer, collaborated with an international team to conduct a comparative modeling analysis examining how timeframes for eliminating cervical cancer differ across subpopulations in the United States. (Photo credit: Ola Gamst Sæther)

Conventional decision analytic models typically use probability distributions to represent parameter uncertainty. Thomas Trikalinos has developed a novel approach for representing uncertainty when available information is too limited to support meaningful probability distributions, which he presented in a recent CHDS seminar.

CHDS faculty Davene Wright and colleagues used a real-world, retrospective cohort study to assess changes in initial treatment for children and adolescents with obesity following the issuance of the American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP) guidelines for the treatment of pediatric obesity in 2023.

CHDS congratulates faculty Jagpreet Chhatwal and colleague Rachael Fleurence for being honored with the inaugural Impact Award from The Professional Society for Health Economics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). 

Society for Medical Decision Making (SMDM)

June 28 - July 1, 2026

Oslo, Norway

Conference for scholars, clinicians, public health policy makers, trainees, students, and early career researchers dedicated to advancing medical decision making. Submissions are open and due by January 14, 2026. Registration opens March 23, 2026.

This study in Cancer evaluates the impact of using multicancer early detection (MCED) tests for cancer control for the US population. Using a microsimulation model spanning 10 years, authors found that MCED tests could significantly reduce late-stage cancer diagnoses.

Chitwood MH, Menzies NA, Bartholomay P et al. Quantifying Disruptions to Tuberculosis Case Detection in Brazilian States During the COVID-19 Pandemic. Int J Epidemiol. 2025 Oct;54(5):dyaf146.

Karlsson O, Jamison DT, Yamey G et al. Global Disparities in Premature Mortality. JAMA Health Forum. 2025 Oct 3;6(10):e253479.

Mortality Risk Valuation in Policy Assessment: A Global Meta-Analysis of Value of Statistical Life Studies. OECD. 2025 Oct.

Ramponi F, Zhou H, Gosliner W et al. Universal Free School Meal Policies and Participation in the US National School Meal Programs. JAMA Pediatr. 2025 Oct;179(10):1108-1118.

Saghafian S. Insight-Driven Problem Solving: Analytics Science to Improve the World. Cambridge University Press. 2025.

Siedner MJ, Magula N, Mazibuko L et al. Home-Based Care for Hypertension in Rural South Africa. N Engl J Med. 2025 Oct;393(13):1304-1314.

Smith KC, Gaziano TA, Mushlin AI et al. Effect of Systolic Blood Pressure Measurement Error on the Cost-Effectiveness of Intensive Blood Pressure Targets. Ann Intern Med. 2025 Oct;178(10):1409-1419.

Ward ZJ, Atun R, King G et al. Assessing Differences in Country-Level Estimates of Maternal Mortality: A Comparison of GMatH, UN, and GBD Model Results for 2020. eClinicalMedicine. 2025 Oct;88:103505.