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By Sydney Kashiwagi

Minnesota Star Tribune

Hello and welcome back to another DC Dish!  

Sen. Tina Smith’s sudden retirement announcement has opened the floodgates to a real U.S. Senate contest in 2026.  

Though Democrats have a nearly two-decades-long winning streak on their side, they will have to hustle to hold on to the seat, which national Republicans are eyeing. 

CROWDED PRIMARY IN THE WORKS? They’ll also have to figure out whether they’re willing to join what could become a messy, crowded primary that could include a growing list of Democratic heavyweights, or button this up behind the scenes before.  

Rep. Angie Craig confirmed Monday she’s seriously weighing a bid, moving her one step closer to entering with Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, who was the first Democrat to make an entry. 

Attorney General Keith Ellison, Rep. Ilhan Omar, Gov. Tim Walz and Secretary of State Steve Simon are all also potential contenders. 

ASSESSING THE GOP FIELD: As Democrats continue mulling, Republicans are assessing their chances and suspect the National Republican Senatorial Committee and other national Republican groups will step in to help, especially in the recruitment department. 

"The NRSC is working on it,” a GOP source told me this week, noting that the Minnesota Republican Party has not really played an active role in recruiting candidates to run for U.S. Senate in the past.  

Currently in the GOP field are retired Navy SEAL Adam Schwarze and ex-NBA player Royce White. White ran unsuccessfully against Sen. Amy Klobuchar last year and was repeatedly dismissed by the NRSC during his bid. 

State Sens. Julia Coleman, Karin Housley and state Rep. Kristin Robbins are all still weighing runs.  

ALL EYES ON STAUBER: I'm told the real question right now is whether Rep. Pete Stauber will enter the race. He hasn't ruled out a bid, and one Republican operative told me Stauber has the field somewhat at a standstill, though they admit it may be a tough sell for him, given he's made the seat relatively safe. “Anyone that matters is waiting on Stauber,” the source said. 

Rep. Tom Emmer, Minnesota’s highest-ranking Republican, was quick to take his name out of the running. And it’s unclear if Reps. Michelle Fischbach and Brad Finstad are considering runs, though Republicans doubt either will enter the field. 

MINNESOTA'S LAST GOP SENATOR WEIGHS IN: In a recent interview, former Sen. Norm Coleman, also spoke highly of Stauber as a strong candidate.  

“If he were to run statewide, I think he has the ability to galvanize the same coalition that Trump had, but in addition to that, I think he's shown an ability to win in areas that were previously Democrat areas that he’s helped transform,” Coleman said of Stauber.  

But Coleman said he'd be remiss if he didn't mention his namesake. “Senator Coleman has always had a nice ring to it in Minnesota,” he said of his daughter-in-law Julia Coleman.  

VIEW FROM WASHINGTON: NRSC Chair Sen. Tim Scott and Senate Majority Leader John Thune have both indicated that they are taking the Minnesota seat seriously. 

Scott said Minnesota is "in play," while Thune also thinks Minnesota can present Republicans with a pickup opportunity. 

THUNE'S THOUGHTS: "Minnesota is arguably slightly harder than Michigan," Thune told Fox News of the two new open U.S. Senate seat contests. "Both states that we haven't elected a Republican senator from in a long time. But I think that these are different times, and people are looking for change in this country. And I think even states that have traditionally been blue states present opportunities for us, and if we do things right, put up a record of accomplishment and support the president in what we're trying to get accomplished here in the House and the Senate, the map, which typically in a midterm election, particularly a president's second term, generally is harder. We're going to do everything we can. it's the right candidates and it's the right time."

DEMS MAY HAVE TO PLAY FAVORITES: Meanwhile, Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, who heads the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, has indicated the campaign arm may get involved in primaries. This means that if the Minnesota Democratic primary field gets crowded, national Democrats may be forced to pick a favorite. 

TALK OF THE TOWN: Minnesota politicos had a lot to say about Smith's retirement and the musical chairs beginning to take shape. 

LIVING IN KLOBUCHAR'S SHADOW: Coleman for one said he wasn't surprised about Smith's announcement. "I've never seen her have the passion that one might want to have, and she's certainly been in the shadow of Klobuchar who's a dynamic major presence," the former GOP senator said. 

KLOBUCHAR'S MINI SCOOP ON WALZ: Meanwhile, Klobuchar was asked during an interview on CNN on Monday whether she thinks Walz should run for Senate, to which she didn't say yes or no, but appeared to give us a scoop into Walz's plans, who's yet to say if he fully intends to run for re-election. 

"As far as I know the governor is running for governor," said Klobuchar, who told CNN's Dana Bash that she had just spoke with him in the last week. "We have a very deep bench of candidates in Minnesota. We're going to win this seat, and I am looking forward to with our nominee to make sure they get elected."

What stood out to me in this exchange is that Klobuchar sidestepped the same question I asked Smith last week, who declined to comment on whether she thinks Walz should run for her seat. So read into that as much or as little as you'd like. 

DEAN PHILLIPS HAS SOME THOUGHTS: Former Rep. Dean Phillips stepped up his Monday morning quarterback game this week, weighing in on the U.S. Senate race and gubernatorial races on Chad Hartman's show on WCCO radio. 

Phillips said he wants Craig to be Smith's successor and wants Simon to run for governor. He also said he doesn't think Walz should run for governor again. "I think it's time for somebody new, and I think eight years of plenty," Phillips said of Walz. 

Shortly after Smith's announcement, Phillips said he did not intend to run for Smith's seat nor for governor. But Hartman pressed him on whether he'd change his mind, to which the former congressman said if Minnesota Democrats nominate a "leftist," he may (even if it's highly unlikely). 

YES, NO, POSSIBLY: "I use intention just because there could be a circumstance, I suppose, in which Democrats somehow nominate a leftist, if I don't think that person can win, I'll probably do what I did when I knew Joe Biden was not going to win, and probably couldn't serve another four years, which is either work hard to recruit someone who can, and if all else fails, perhaps, I think it's a really unlikely scenario, and it is neither my interest nor my intention," Phillips said. 

Walz remains in the Netherlands this week on a trade trip. 

Today, he'll attend a roundtable meeting with members of the Hague Parliament at 8:30 a.m. 

He'll tour Neste’s Sustainable Aviation Fuel Refinery at 1 p.m. and deliver remarks at armchair conversations hosted by the John Adams Institute at 7:30 p.m. 

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Members of Minnesotans for Equal Rights including Gender Justice, OutFront Minnesota, Jewish Community Action, Rep. Leigh Finke, and Sen. Mary Kunesh will will hold a news conference to share new statewide polling data that shows strong support for Minnesota’s Equal Rights Amendment (ERA).

The event will take place at the State Capitol Room B971 at 10:30 a.m. 

At 4 p.m., hundreds are expected to rally in the Capitol rotunda to call for elected officials in the state and Congress to “Fund Our Future” by blocking cuts to vital programs and increasing revenue for public services.