February Winter Weather in Pennsylvania
Ah, February. The midpoint of winter. Deep into the coldest, snowiest, wintriest time of the year, right? Let’s take a little dive into a few numbers to see what we can dig up for the shortest month of the year.
Taking a look at Harrisburg, the coldest temperature ever recorded occurred on January 21, 1994, at -22°, during an impressive statewide cold snap. February’s coldest temperature? We go way back to 1899, where on the 10th, a -13° was recorded on the thermometer. In contrast, over the past decade, seven of the ten years featured above average temperatures for the month, with 2017 being the record warmest February, nearly 10 degrees above average! Ironically, two years prior, in 2015, we had the coldest February ever recorded, at almost 11 degrees below average.
Looking at snowfall in the Capital City, February has the highest average annual, monthly snowfall at 10.5”. We go back to 2015 to see the first above average February monthly snowfall at 11.2”, with 2014 featuring 21.6”, and 2010 holding the monthly record snowfall of 42.1.” Even with the 12.5” snowstorm earlier this month, the first half of the snow fell on January 31st, with only 7.6” falling on February 1st.
In fact, the last single storm to produce over a foot of snow in February was in 2010. Statewide, Pittsburgh and Philadelphia have not seen a single storm produce a foot or more in February since 2010, with Williamsport’s last single storm at the 12” mark dating back to 2003. Scranton featured a February 2014 snowstorm hitting the 12” mark.
Looking at the Northeast Snowfall Impact Scale, which ranks snowstorms by impact after the event, the only two storms ranked at the highest level 5, or “extreme,” occurred in January (1996) and March (1993). A total of ten snowstorms have been ranked at a level 4, or “crippling,” with four of those ten occurring in February, four in January and one each in December and March. Reviewing the past two decades, the majority of the ranked storms impacting the state have occurred during the middle of February. Of the seven ranked February storms since 2000, five occurred between the 10th and 19th, with one each between the 1st-9th and 20th-29th, respectively.
So, where does 2021 stand?
The Pennsylvania State Climate Office issued a forecast using historical climate data based on years with similar conditions leading up to February. The forecast calls for below average temperatures, with the coldest air arriving mid-month. Precipitation looks to be hard to come by too, but wintry precipitation is favored over rain on average. On the other hand, the climate forecast models beg to differ, with a wet and warming trend heavily favored in a La Nina winter.
Which side of history do you think February 2021 will reside? So far, history is winning!
