Reemerging to the World After COVID
Recently returning to Cairo, Egypt, after a prolonged COVID-induced hiatus, I met with academic partners, government officials, and members of civil society. The mechanics of the trip largely mirrored those undertaken for years – long flight, lousy airline food, relatively uncomfortable seats, and excitement at reaching the final destination. The timing, however, made the trip unique. As we emerge from hibernation, one cannot help but wonder how this profound experience changed the world around us.
As the U.S. inches closer to President Biden’s goal of a 70% vaccination rate, much of the rest of the world lingers far behind. This registers in many ways large and small, from relatively stringent masking policies in European airports to the complete lack of students at the normally buzzing American University in Cairo campus. Every country, however, reacted to and manages COVID differently.
Egypt itself only shut down briefly. As a developing nation with serious fiscal limitations, Cairo gambled by encouraging people to return to work relatively early in the cycle. With the government incapable of providing generous stimulus payment or unemployment benefits, this was a matter of survival. In March 2020, the Egyptian economy was emerging from a period of turmoil. After 30 years in power with relative stability and absolute predictability, Hosni Mubarak was ousted in the face of mass protests in 2011. His successor, after an interim period, was a member of the Muslim Brotherhood who himself fell from power after just one year. Suffice to say, political instability is bad for developing nations relying heavily on foreign investment and tourism to buttress the economy.
There were fears COVID would be particularly traumatic to vulnerable economies, especially in Egypt which relies heavily on tourism. While some have accused the government of concealing COVID infection rates, Egypt seems to have been largely spared. Observing the capital city today, the economy seems to have weathered the storm. Still, many businesses which catered to tourists, expatriates, and select segments of the Egyptian population suffered mightily, or worse – a teary goodbye to the Windsor Hotel and its classic Barrell Bar, for example.
Nonetheless, everywhere one looks, construction. The government has invested in massive projects to provide the infrastructure bones needed to build a modern and more dynamic economy. Yet much of the growth, particularly in the endless suburbs surrounding Cairo, is fueled by the private sector – much of it coming from Egyptian investors rather than foreigners. “It has always been said Egypt is a poor country full of rich people, and now we are seeing that,” quipped one friend who specializes in analyzing the political economy of Egypt. Seeing construction is not always indicative of economic health, but it is a very good barometer.
Cairo has always been as dusty and chaotic as it is interesting. It is a very special place still, but seemingly a little more decaffeinated – literally and figuratively. Ordinarily, every night one would see robust street life – tea, coffee, shisha, music (usually the ubiquitous Om Kalthoum), and endless soccer games – with fans rolling TVs into the street to watch local teams like Al Ahly and Zamalek, or the Egyptian national team. With COVID, however, the atmosphere is much more subdued. People are out, but the numbers are down and the cacophony of noise absent. Tourists are back to a certain extent, but most of them from neighboring Arab countries.
My schedule included several meetings with individuals very familiar with the United States and American politics. Their jobs have long required them to monitor the U.S. out of necessity because American decisions have often affected (or have been believed to affect) their nation, economy, or the region. Yet the tone of the conversations was much different, and less passionate (good or bad), than at any previous time. Perhaps 16 months of isolation gave everyone time for introspection. As multiple people explained, the impact of the world’s (and especially the West’s) mismanagement of COVID, questions about America’s reliability as a partner, and Washington’s acrimonious political climate have instilled a sense of disillusionment and disinterest. It might be temporary, but what others think about the U.S. and its place in the world has changed.
The COVID era continues, but when it is finally over, we will have to deal with a new normal. What that means for daily life in all corners of the world, for international commerce, global engagement, and foreign policy, is not yet clear.
– David Dumke, Executive Director, UCF Global Perspectives and International Initiatives
