Welcome to this month's edition of the Center for Health Decision Science (CHDS) newsletter. Explore recent decision science publications, upcoming events, and news within the field.

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CHDS seminars feature national and international decision science experts. The seminars are virtual via Zoom and require pre-registration using the link provided below.

Speakers share their own perspectives; they do not speak for the Center for Health Decision Science or for Harvard University.

Mark Strong

February 24, 1:00 pm EST

Virtual; free; registration required

We commonly use computer models to help us make decisions in healthcare resource allocation. Should we fund a particular new drug, for example? However, even with our best model we still might make a wrong decision. This is because we can almost never eliminate uncertainty. This seminar will cover the meaning of uncertainty in a model-based decision making context, and how we can manage it, with particular reference to the quantification of the value of new information.

James Hammitt, Lisa Robinson, and Maddalena Ferranna

March 6, 11:00 am EST

Virtual; free; registration required

Host: Society for Medical Decision Making (SMDM)

In this webinar, cost-effectiveness analysis and benefit-cost analysis are compared, highlighting how they measure health outcomes, value benefits, guide decisions, and incorporate equity - key considerations as public health policies increasingly extend beyond the health care system.

Instructor or Assistant Professor, Department of Population Medicine, Harvard Medical School, Division of Child Health Research and Policy

CHDS’s Ankur Pandya, Andrea Luviano, and former students Jinyi Zhu and Lyndon James proposed a method to account for equity weight values in cost-effectiveness analysis in a recent Value in Health article.

CHDS affiliated faculty Ole Norheim was honored as a Gates Foundation Goalkeepers Nordic Champion. The Gates Foundation Goalkeepers honors those who bring the world closer to achieving the UN’s 2030 Sustainable Development Goals. 

CHDS faculty Nicolas Menzies and colleagues found that geographic differences across states and municipalities in Brazil played a larger role than patient-level factors in explaining whether patients successfully completed tuberculosis treatment. Their study results were recently published in BMJ Global Health.

Target trial emulation (TTE) is a causal inference framework that can be used to model and estimate clinical trial outcomes, expanding information available for decision-making when budgets, ethics, feasibility, or timing constrain the scope of traditional clinical trials. At a recent CHDS seminar, Kayoko Shioda presented current and forthcoming research on using TTE techniques to identify optimal vaccine dosing schedules. 

CHDS faculty Ankur Pandya, doctoral student Andrea Luviano, and former student Jihye Han re-analyzed the value assessments underlying the American Heart Association (AHA) guidelines between 2014 and 2022 using Health Years in Total (HYTs) rather than the usual Quality Adjusted Life Years (QALYs). The researchers found that 90% to 96% of conclusions would remain unchanged regardless of which method was used.

Society for Benefit-Cost Analysis (SBCA)

March 12 - 13

Washington, DC

Conference brings together experts and practitioners from around the world, providing attendees with diverse perspectives on benefit-cost analysis and its many applications. Sessions span a wide range of topics—including environmental and health economics, regulatory policy, social equity, and behavioral economics—offering participants the opportunity to explore emerging research, innovative methodologies, and pressing policy challenges. Registration is open.

Society for Medical Decision Making (SMDM)

June 28 - July 1

Oslo, Norway

Conference for scholars, clinicians, public health policy makers, trainees, students, and early career researchers dedicated to advancing medical decision making. Registration opens March 23.

Abrahams-Gessel S, Manyaapelo T, Sithole N et al. A Formative Evaluation of Potential Barriers and Facilitators to Inform Effective Implementation of a Community-Based Hypertension Care Program in Rural South Africa: The IMPACT-BP Trial. SSM - Health Systems 2025 Dec; 5: 100086.

Aguiar Monteiro Borges S, Ohanesian Polli E, Nonato AC et al. Maternal RSV Vaccination to Protect Infants in Brazil: A Model-Based Cost-Effectiveness Analysis for Incorporation into the National Immunisation Program. Lancet Reg Health Am. 2026 Jan;53:101356.

Butzner M, ElHabr AK, Farajkhah K et al. Epidemiology of Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy in the United States From 2016 to 2023. JACC Adv. 2026 Jan 23;5(2):102552.

Choi SE, Nolte D, Pandya A. Cost-Effectiveness of Pay-for-Performance Incentives for Topical Fluoride Application Among US Children: A Decision-Analytic Modelling Study. BMJ Open. 2025 Dec 29;15(12):e111302.

Dinan MA, Stratton KL, Leisenring WM et al. Treatment Exposure-Based Risk-Stratification for Care of Survivors of Childhood Cancer: A Report from the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study. J Natl Cancer Inst. 2025 Dec 1;117(12):2580-2590.

Dowd WN, Chen Q, Barbosa C et al. Estimating Community-Level Prevalence of Opioid Use Disorder: Extrapolating from Medicaid Claims Data and Other Publicly Available Data Sources in Ohio, USA. Addiction. 2025 Dec 2. Online ahead of print.

Goshua G, Wang D, Ito S et al. Understanding Risk-Deleted Disability-Adjusted Life-Years: What's Left Behind. J Am Coll Cardiol. 2025 Dec 2;86(22):2130-2132.

Han J, Luviano A, Pandya A. Reanalyzing Value Assessments in American Heart Association Clinical Practice Guidelines Using Health Years in Total Instead of Quality-Adjusted Life-Years. Value Health. 2025 Dec 5:S1098-3015(25)06150-9. Online ahead of print.

Mulder RL, van Dalen EC, Teepen J et al. International Guideline Harmonization Group Recommendations for Breast Cancer Surveillance in Childhood, Adolescent, and Young Adult Cancer Survivors After Anthracyclines. JCO Oncol Pract. 2026 Jan 7:OP2501017. Online ahead of print.

Nguyen C, Burger EA, Aasdahl L et al. A Cost-Utility Analysis for Return-to-Work Interventions Comparing Alternative Methods for Handling Missing Health-Related Quality of Life Data. J Rehabil Med. 2025 Dec 1;57:jrm42359.

Ryuk DK, Pelissari DM, Alves K et al. Systematic Differences in TB Treatment Outcomes across Brazil by Patient- and Area-Related Factors: An Analysis of National Disease Registry Data. BMJ Glob Health. 2025 Dec 5;10(12):e018822.

Shen Y, Beccia AL, Menzies NA et al. Development of Disordered Weight Control Behaviors and Its Progression to Eating Disorders in Canada: A Nationally Representative Microsimulation. Int J Eat Disord. 2025 Dec 10. Online ahead of print.

van Dijk SPJ, Blanco MMK, McMullin JL et al. Patient-Reported Outcomes Across Treatment Strategies in Papillary Thyroid Microcarcinoma: A Meta-Analysis. JAMA Otolaryngol Head Neck Surg. 2025 Dec 26:e254670. Online ahead of print.

van Lieshout Titan A, Dodd PJ, Coehn T et al. Estimating the Number of Incorrect Tuberculosis Diagnoses in Low- and Middle-Income Countries. Nature Medicine 2026 Jan 7. Online ahead of print.

Wu YS, Kunst N, Győrbiró DM et al. Cost-Effectiveness of Low-Dose CT Lung Cancer Screening Among Individuals That Have Ever Smoked in Norway: A Model-Based Analysis Using NELSON Trial Criteria and Outcomes. Int J Cancer. 2025 Dec 19. Online ahead of print.

Yapa HM, MacLean EL-H, Menzies NA et al. Drug-Resistant Tuberculosis: A Priority Pathogen for Enhanced Public Health Research and Practice. Clin Microbiol Rev. 2025 Dec 11;38(4):e0006425. Review.

Zhu J, Jhang J, Yu H et al. Cost-Effectiveness of Risk-Based Screening for Asymptomatic Carotid Artery Stenosis. MDM Policy Pract. 2026 Jan 15;11(1):23814683251409213.