Texas busing programs that transported newly arrived immigrants to Democratic-led cities boosted President Donald Trump’s vote share in affected counties during the 2024 election, according to a study co-authored by Professor David Brady.

• What they researched: To examine the electoral impact of the program, Brady and colleagues analyzed county-level election data and Associated Press VoteCast exit polls, comparing election results from 2016, 2020 and 2024. Study authors contrasted electoral results from counties that received migrant buses against those that did not, isolating how much affected counties distinctively changed in 2024 versus 2016 and 2020.
  
  
• What they found: Trump’s vote share in 2024 grew by more than three percentage points in counties that received migrant buses from Texas, compared to the 2016 and 2020 elections. Swing voters were swayed toward Trump in 2024, driven by concerns with crime in places that received buses with migrants. The migrant busing program increased Republican turnout, but Democratic turnout was not affected by the busing program.
  
  
• Why it matters: The findings highlight the enduring power of perceived threats from racial minorities, researchers said. Public discussion often linked the arrival of bused migrants to rising crime, even though research shows that the influx of migrants had no effect on local crime rates and that immigrants generally commit crimes at lower rates than native-born citizens. Still, the perception of a connection between immigration and crime appears to have influenced voting decisions.

Read the study in Sociological Science.

Television news stories about severe weather can increase people’s concern about climate change and their support for policies that protect against extreme weather, according to a study co-authored by Provost Professor Wändi Bruine de Bruin.

• What they researched: Bruine de Bruin and colleagues surveyed 3,095 U.S. adults who were randomly assigned to watch short TV news reports about severe weather events, such as heatwaves or wildfires. Some reports used the phrase “climate change,” some recommended actions to protect against severe weather events, and some included both.
  
  
• What they found: TV news stories that used the term “climate change” increased viewers’ climate-change concerns. Reports about severe weather events bolstered viewers’ willingness to support policies that protect against severe weather events. Viewers across the political aisle responded to the TV reports.
  
  
• Why it matters: Even brief local TV news segments about severe weather can increase concern about climate change and support for protective policies among audiences across the United States, independent of their political affiliation.

Read the study in Journal of Risk Research

Teenage cannabis use is linked to a higher risk of developing psychiatric disorders in adolescence and young adulthood, according to a massive study co-authored by Professor Rosalie Liccardo Pacula.

• What they researched: Pacula and colleagues examined a large cohort of 463,396 adolescents (ages 13 to 17) in a Northern Californian health system over 10 years (2013-2023). The teenagers were universally screened for past-year cannabis use and followed through about age 26 to see if cannabis use was associated with new diagnoses of psychotic, bipolar, depressive, or anxiety disorders.
  
  
• What they found: Adolescents reporting past-year cannabis use had about double the risk of being diagnosed later with psychotic and bipolar disorders, even after controlling for other substance use and prior disruptive disorders, as well as increased risk for depressive and anxiety disorders.
  
  
• Why it matters: With cannabis becoming more legally available and socially accepted, there are growing concerns about its potential impact on adolescent mental health. While effects on adults may differ from those studied here, adolescent brains are still developing and hence are more vulnerable to negative outcomes. The findings of this large study highlight the importance of early prevention, clinician and parent education, and policies aimed at reducing youth cannabis exposure as legalization expands.

Read the study in JAMA Health Forum

Conflicts of Interest: Associate Professor Genevieve Kanter provides an explainer on conflicts of interest in government advisory committees and argues that the new proposals from the U.S. Department of Health and Human Service for reducing conflicts of interest are unlikely to restore public trust. Read more in New England Journal of Medicine

Combatting Democratic Despotism: Professor Shui-Yan Tang argues that strengthened local institutions, renewed civic participation, and active public administration leadership are needed to counter modern threats of democratic despotism and authoritarian drift. Read more in Public Administration Review

Community Engagement in a Pandemic: Assistant Professor Santina Contreras and colleagues analyzed how U.S. first responders engaged with communities during the COVID-19 pandemic. Community engagement largely focused on information sharing, with minimal evidence of higher levels of engagement, highlighting the potential disconnect between theories and practice of community engagement. Read more in Journal of Urban Affairs

Higher Patient Cost Sharing: Assistant Professor Erin Duffy and colleagues found that insured patients’ shares of hospital costs increased substantially in recent years. Notably, cost sharing has shifted toward both high-cost and zero-cost encounters for patients, consistent with the adoption of high-deductible health plans on one hand and plans covering preventive or other services in full on the other. Read more in Health Affairs

Evaluating a New Set of Investments: Assistant Professor Spencer Couts and a colleague evaluated the early performance of the new NAV REITs, a fast-growing class of private real estate funds (such as Blackstone's BREIT) available to everyday investors. They find evidence suggesting these funds are riskier than they appear because their valuations update slowly, and while NAV REITs outperformed a typical mix of stocks, bonds, and publicly traded REITs from 2016 to 2024, the gains aren't statistically strong enough to rule out luck. Read more in The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics

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