ISSUE 5 | JUNE 2026

Great leaders don't simply respond to change, they help shape what comes next. That spirit was on full display at this year's commencement ceremony, where Ethan Fitzgerald became the first GSPM student selected to deliver the student address at GW's Commencement on the National Mall. His inspiring remarks reflected the leadership, service, and civic engagement that define the GSPM community. If you haven't had a chance to listen, I encourage you to watch his speech below.

Those same themes are central to the conver-sations taking place across GSPM as we look ahead to the 2026 midterm elections. Our recent webinar on California's pivotal gubernatorial race—the first in a series of events examining key races, emerging trends, and the forces shaping the political landscape—offered valuable insights into one of the nation's most closely watched contests. If you missed the live discussion, you can watch the replay here.

Each month, GSPM expert faculty provide timely analysis
on the issues and trends shaping today's political landscape.

In This Issue:

Community News:

GSPM Graduate Ethan Fitzgerald addressed fellow GW graduates, faculty, staff, family,
and friends at the 2026 GW Commencement on the National Mall in Washington, DC. 

OP ED: LATINO VOTER TRENDS

The Autopsy of Silence:
What Washington Fails to Understand
About the Latino Electorate

by The Honorable Debbie Mucarsel-Powell
Executive Director
The Graduate School of Political Management

As the first Latina nominated for a U.S. Senate seat in Florida and a former member of Congress, I spent months on the front lines watching a familiar story unfold. Now, as political insiders analyze the road to the 2026 midterms, the latest party “autopsies” are missing the point.

Too often, Washington views Florida—and Latino voters—through a transactional lens. Latinos are treated as a voting bloc to be targeted late in a campaign rather than a diverse community that deserves year-round engagement. Florida has been deemed too complicated or too expensive, leaving organizers without sustained support or infrastructure.

The latest bipartisan UnidosUS poll tells a different story. Nationally, 68% of Latino voters believe the country is headed in the wrong direction, and only 15% say they are living comfortably. Their top concerns are the cost of living (60%), jobs and wages (40%), healthcare costs (37%), and housing (27%).

Republicans recognized these concerns and made gains by speaking directly to voters’ economic anxieties. Yet the same poll reveals growing dissatisfaction with the Trump administration, with 67% of Latinos disapproving of the president’s performance and one in four Latino Trump voters from 2024 expressing regret. Still, Democrats are not automatically benefiting.

Why? Because 40% of Latino voters have joined the electorate within the last four years. They are younger, more independent, and less loyal to traditional political institutions. They expect to be heard, not taken for granted.

Nowhere is this disconnect more evident than in Florida. Despite its economic growth and expanding political influence, many families face rising costs, struggling schools, and uncertainty surrounding immigration policy. The poll found that 44% of Latinos fear being harassed or detained by immigration authorities, while 83% support legal status for long-residing undocumented immigrants.

The lesson is clear: Latino voters are paying attention, and they plan to vote. But they are not waiting for talking points. Moving forward requires more than polling and post-election analysis. It requires genuine engagement, meaningful conversations, and a sustained presence in the communities political leaders hope to serve.

POLITICAL ANALYSIS

by Dr. Matthew Dallek, Professor
Political Management Master's Program

“At its fiftieth anniversary, President John F. Kennedy praised the Anti-Defamation League for its “distinguished contribution to the enrichment of America’s democratic legacy” and its “tireless pursuit of equality of treatment for all Americans.” The ADL believed, with justification, that Jewish Americans and other religious and racial minorities could thrive only in a democracy.

“TODAY, LIBERALS AGREE THAT this system is unraveling. On his first day of his second term, President Donald Trump pardoned more than a thousand rioters who had stormed the Capitol in order to overturn the 2020 election. His admin-istration has pointedly argued that the radical left is the only true homegrown threat despite significant evidence to the contrary. The Justice Department recently filed criminal charges against the Southern Poverty Law Center for allegedly committing financial crimes while running a historic program of informants inside extremist organizations.

To read the classic spy novels of the Cold War era is to see how murky compro-mises made in that wilderness of mirrors leave all involved grubby and jeopar-dized. Yet, I have come to see the ADL’s spy operation to counter far-right extremism as an example of how such seemingly deceitful activities can strike a blow for democracy. Nonviolent civic groups and individuals that shine a bright, truthful light on extremism have helped build a culture in which reasoned debate, racial and religious tolerance, and free and fair elections can combat conspiracy theories, misinformation, and the hate swirling through American life.

“Surreptitious and, at times, underhanded, the ADL’s spy campaign against the John Birch Society was a triumph for liberal democracy, not to mention decency and civility, because it exposed the Birchers’ delusions and bigotries to public scrutiny. Sometimes, worthy ends justify unsavory means.”

FOREIGN POLICY

by Dr. Todd Belt, Professtor and Director
Political Management Master's Program

by Lesley Lopez, Director
Public Relations & Communications Program

In the run-up to the primary election for California’s next governor, I was fortunate to chat with two of the leading scholars on California politics: UCSD’s Thad Kousser and USC’s Christian Grose.

Here are the top five takeaways that can be applied to other races and shed light on some national trends.

1. National politics still dominate state race dynamics

State campaigns rarely operate in isolation. Down-ballot candidates in 2026 must understand how national political dynamics affect their local elections. Like in the Texas primary earlier in the month, Trump’s endorsement of a candidate will shift the race significantly. Even when the president is not directly involved, panelists repeatedly argued that Trump's presence influenced media attention and which Republican emerged as viable.

2. Rules increasingly shape campaign strategy

Perhaps now more than ever, strategy can be driven as much by election rules as by political ideology. California's "jungle primary" system puts all candidates on the same ballot, with the top two advancing. So, turning out a strategic base can be enough to get a campaign over the edge when the field is so wide that the margins run thin. 

3. …therefore, winning the base can matter more than winning the middle

"Electability" has a shifting definition. In a heavily Democratic state like California (where the partisan breakdown is roughly 60-40) candidates focused less on appealing to swing voters and more on securing enough support from key constituencies to reach the top two.

4. Scandals can completely reshape a race in an instant

Eric Swalwell was the frontrunner until serious sexual assault allegations brought his campaign to a halt. Thad argued that this incident was the driving force behind the emerging frontrunning campaigns taking their place at the top. 

5. As tactics change, authenticity and relationships still matter

Thad and Christian both pointed out the likelihood of low turnout and the low level of excitement they are seeing in the electorate. Even with a heavily resourced campaign like Steyer’s, these dynamics are hard to overcome. Though communications tactics are evolving to include advanced digital work, none of the campaigns are setting the standard for creativity. Voters in California appear to increasingly trust peers, influencers, and authentic messengers over traditional political communication.

INTERNATIONAL POLITICS

by Dr. Natalia Dinello, Director
Global Residencies Program

Trump Voters’ Reasons for
Voting in the 2024 Election

Harris Voters’ Reasons for
Voting in the 2024 Election

The wartime can, however, increase voters’ unease about foreign policy. Given that President Trump’s 2024 campaign was focused on keeping the US out of wars, a reverse course – the launch of the military operation against Iran – can affect the November 2026 midterm elections. Twice as many Americans oppose the war in Iran as support it (60% vs. 30%), and more Americans disapprove than approve of its handling by Trump (59% vs. 31%).  Dissatisfaction with the war brews among Republicans: 34% of potential Republican supporters want the next party candidate for president to move in a new direction on Iran. Only 38% say it is justified to use military force even if there is no threat.

Midterm elections are still five months away. If the Operation Epic Fury ends soon, and the Trump administration manages to persuade the US public of its benefits, the war’s effect on the electorate can be negligible or small. But if the war drags on, and especially if it is escalated to the point of putting US troops on the ground, it can swing the electoral tide. Considering the ripple effects of the war on voters’ central concern, that is, the economy, the increase in the cost of living will give Democrats extra chances to win back the House, if not the Senate.

Michelle brings extensive experience spanning educa-tion, public affairs, policy, and stakeholder engagement. Most recently, she served as Assistant Program Director of Public Affairs at the Center for Global Sustainability at the University of Maryland and previously held roles with the Aspen Institute, the Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation and Institute, and the DC Office of the Deputy Mayor for Education.

A passionate advocate for education and leadership development, Michelle began her career as a science educator through Teach For America. She holds degrees from the University of Virginia and the Harvard Graduate School of Education, as well as a certificate from Yale University. We are excited to welcome Michelle to the GSPM community and look forward to the impact she will make in supporting our students, alumni, and partners.

Megan Whittemore (PMGT Class of 2010) has built an impressive career at the intersection of politics, communications, and public affairs. Most recently, she was appointed Chief of Staff to the U.S. Ambassador to China, a role that reflects her extensive experience in government and strategic communications.

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