As we approach the November 3 midterm elections, JEI is launching a new series examining key races across the country. This is the first installment of our key/swing state-by-state election outlook. From now until Election Day, we will take a closer look at individual states, the contests that could shape the balance of power in Washington, and the political trends that may help explain the results.

Our goal is to provide nonpartisan insight into the candidates, constituencies, and issues shaping the election—not to predict outcomes with certainty or tell voters how to vote.

JEI begins its examination of the 2026 midterm elections in Florida, the “Sunshine State,” where the political landscape has undergone significant changes since 2020.

According to JEI's 2020 study, Florida had the nation's third-largest Jewish electorate, with approximately 665,000 Jewish adults. At the time, Florida also held 29 electoral votes, the fourth-highest total nationally. Today, Florida has 30 electoral votes and remains home to the nation's third-largest Jewish population, estimated at approximately 760,000 to 780,000 residents.

The state's political affiliations have also shifted considerably. Republicans now outnumber Democrats among registered voters by more than 1.5 million, while approximately one-quarter of all registered voters have No Party Affiliation (NPA). Among Jewish voters, JEI's 2020 study found that 59% identified as or leaned Democratic, 32% Republican, and 7% independent without a partisan lean. Whether those affiliations have changed significantly by 2026 remains an important question, particularly as Florida prepares for the November midterms.

In a recent Sayfie Review Column, Dr. Susan A. MacManus, Distinguished Professor Emerita of the University of South Florida, discusses the dynamics of the shifting voter registration and how both Republican and Democratic candidates realize that it’s the NPA’s whom they must capture. She points out that as of February 2026, the NPA's and the very small, minor party voters made up 28% of Florida’s electorate. This is just 2% lower than Democrats at 30%, and 41% behind Republicans, who maintain the largest share of registered voters. This alone makes the NPA's a most consequential group in low-turnout races. They very well could shape the upcoming midterm elections. 

The November midterm election will test not only their ability to retain long-term supporters but also their capacity to connect with unfamiliar constituencies whose priorities and political perspectives may differ significantly from those they have traditionally represented.

Gubernatorial Race:

Can Florida Democrats Make the Race Competitive?

Recent polling has shown a more competitive gubernatorial race than some early expectations suggested. Surveys conducted in September produced differing results, with some showing a close contest while others give the Republican candidate, Bryan Donalds, a clear lead over Democrat David Jolly in the polls. The central question is whether concerns about affordability and the national political environment will create an opening for Democrats, or whether Florida’s recent Republican gains will hold.

Why it matters: Control of the Senate can determine which legislation moves forward, how federal spending is negotiated, and whether presidential nominees receive confirmation. Therefore, Florida’s Senate race is important well beyond the state itself.

Rep. Byron Donalds (R)

Donalds has represented Florida’s 19th congressional district since January 2021. He sits on the House Financial Services Committee and the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee. He is a prominent Trump ally and a member of the House Freedom Caucus. His policy priorities include reducing taxes and regulations, expanding school choice, strengthening immigration enforcement, and addressing Florida's housing and insurance costs. Donalds, who has the backing of President Donald Trump, is campaigning on conservative priorities and economic issues, including property taxes, insurance costs, and affordability.

David Jolly (D)

Jolly represented Florida's 13th Congressional District as a Republican, covering the St. Petersburg area, from 2014 to 2017. In 2018, he left the Republican Party, citing disagreements with its direction under Donald Trump. And in 2022–2025, he associated with the Forward Party and political reform efforts. In April 2025, he registered as a Democrat, and in August 2026, 2026 won the Democratic gubernatorial primary. Jolly, who has been endorsed by former Florida Governor Jeb Bush and over 60 current and former Florida Democratic lawmakers and officials (including Patrick Murphy, Les Miller, Nan Rich, Rick Kriseman, and Janet Lon. He is emphasizing the cost of living, public education, and a different approach to state leadership.

Florida’s U.S. Senate Race: A Study in Contrasts

Florida voters will decide a special election for the U.S. Senate seat currently held by Republican Ashley Moody, who was appointed by Governor DeSantis to fill Marco Rubio’s seat after Rubio left the Senate to become U.S. Secretary of State under the Trump Administration. The race will determine who serves the remainder of Marco Rubio’s Senate term. Moody faces Angie Nixon, a progressive Florida state representative from Jacksonville who self-identifies as a DSA member (Democratic Socialists of America) but is running on the ballot as a Democratic candidate.

The contest reflects a broader challenge for Democrats:  Can Democrats compete statewide in a state where Republicans have built a substantial registration advantage? Recent polling has generally favored Moody, although at least one late-September survey showed a much tighter contest, with Moody at 48% and Nixon at 47%. Other polling has shown a larger Republican advantage. Those differences underscore why individual polls should be viewed as snapshots rather than definitive predictions. Turnout, campaign spending, candidate visibility, and the national political environment will all matter.

Why it matters: Control of the Senate can determine which legislation moves forward, how federal spending is negotiated, and whether presidential nominees receive confirmation. Therefore, Florida’s Senate race is important well beyond the state itself.

Ashley Moody (R)

Before being appointed, Moody was Florida’s former attorney general. From 2007 to 2017, she served as a Circuit Court judge in Hillsborough County at the young age of 31. From 2019 to 2025, she served as Florida Attorney General, elected in 2018 and reelected in 2022, and served until January 2025, when she was appointed to the U.S. Senate by Governor Ron DeSantis to replace Marco Rubio, who became Secretary of State. In August 2026, she won the Republican primary against three challengers. Her Senate committee assignments, according to her official Senate biography, are the Judiciary Committee, Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs, Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions (HELP), the Joint Economic Committee, and the Special Committee on Aging. She identifies as an America First conservative and supports President Trump's agenda. On the issue of immigration, she believes in stronger border enforcement and deportation policies, opposes abortion rights and supports restrictions, supports Trump's tax-cut agenda, advocates for increased support for police and tougher criminal enforcement, supports conservative education policies and parental rights, and supports reducing federal regulation and expanding state authority.

Moody has opposed congressional efforts to block weapons sales to Israel. On April 15, 2026, she voted against advancing resolutions that would have blocked sales of military bulldozers and 1,000-pound bombs. She has condemned Hamas's October 7 attacks, called for the elimination of Hamas, and advocated bringing Israeli hostages home. She supports strong sanctions against Iran and the permanent, verifiable dismantlement of its nuclear program. She has supported legislation challenging UN actions she considers hostile to Israel, arguing that American funding should not support organizations that undermine Israel. She introduced the RECLAIM Act in March 2025, proposing the withdrawal or recovery of federal funding from universities found to have violated students' civil rights, including through antisemitic discrimination.

Angie Nixon (D/DSA)

Nixon defeated retired Army Lieutenant Colonel Alexander Vindman in the August Democratic primary. She advocates Medicare for All, universal childcare, affordable housing, higher taxes on the wealthy, and immigration reform. On Israel, she has taken positions sharply contrasting with those of Republican incumbent Senator Ashley Moody. Nixon opposes continued U.S. military assistance to Israel, has accused Israel of committing genocide in Gaza, and has called for Palestinian self-determination. While she has condemned Hamas's October 7 attacks and supports combating antisemitism, questions remain about her position on Israel's right to exist as a Jewish state. Her candidacy highlights significant differences within the broader political debate over U.S.–Israel relations. During a Zoom meeting with the chair of the Florida Democratic Jewish Caucus, it is alleged in the press that she did not provide a clear answer when asked whether Israel has the right to exist as a Jewish state. It was alleged that she was unfamiliar with the implications of the slogan "From the river to the sea" and said Palestinian friends had told her it was not a call for Israel's destruction. And just this month, Newsweek reported that in an interview with the reporter, she stated, "I believe Israelis have a right to exist," and that she opposes antisemitism and distinguished criticism of Israel's government from hostility toward Jewish people.

Florida Redistricting Reshapes House Races: 

Diverse Political Voices, Shared Jewish Community Concerns

Florida has several Jewish members of Congress whose races merit attention, particularly because Congressional redistricting has changed the electoral landscape. Together, these races demonstrate that Jewish members of Congress do not constitute a single political bloc. They represent diverse parties, constituencies, and approaches to public policy, even as issues affecting Jewish communities, including antisemitism and the U.S.-Israel relationship, remain important to many voters.

Florida’s 6th Congressional District

Randy Fine (R)

(incumbent)

Fine is the Republican incumbent representing Florida's 6th Congressional District. He was elected to Congress in an April 2025 special election. He sits on the House Foreign Affairs Committee’s Subcommittees on Europe and the Western Hemisphere. He also sits on the Subcommittees on Higher Education and Workforce Development, Workforce Protections, and Health, Employment, Labor, and Pensions. He is an outspoken supporter of Israel and won his primary race against antisemitic influencer Dan Bilzerian. His district is solidly Republican, and he is expected to win in November.

Eric Yonce (D)

Yonce is a Florida businessman and first-time congressional candidate challenging Republican Congressman Randy Fine in the November 3, 2026 election. Yonce won the August Democratic primary. He worked in retail management for more than 20 years before entering real estate and starting a business renovating vintage Airstream trailers. He is a first-time congressional candidate. Yonce campaigns on lowering living costs, including housing, insurance, healthcare, and everyday living costs; expanding healthcare access; protecting reproductive rights and addressing environmental concerns, including being opposed to excessive development that threatens Florida's waterways and neighborhoods. He supports collective bargaining, stronger worker protections, and fair wages. Unlike Fine, whose positions on Israel and antisemitism are extensively documented, Yonce has not published a comparably detailed agenda on these issues. 

Andrew Parrott (Libertarian)

Parrott is a welder, entrepreneur, and graduate of the Aviation Institute of Maintenance. He also ran in the April 2025 special congressional election. His priorities include reducing federal spending, lowering taxes, reforming healthcare, strengthening border security, and limiting American involvement in overseas conflicts. Parrott advocates smaller government, fiscal restraint, and reduced American involvement in overseas conflicts. He has affirmed the importance of maintaining good relations with Israel but has not articulated detailed public positions on U.S. military assistance to Israel or combating antisemitism.

Florida’s  Newly Drawn 9th  Congressional District

Rep. Darren Soto (D)

(incumbent)

Soto is running in the 9th District and is particularly vulnerable after its boundaries shifted substantially toward Republicans. Soto has represented Central Florida in Congress since January 2017 and ran unopposed in the 2026 primary. He is an attorney and the first person of Puerto Rican descent elected to Congress from Florida. He is a member of the House Energy and Commerce Committee and its Subcommittee on Commerce, Manufacturing, and Trade, the Subcommittee on Communications and Technology, and the Subcommittee on the Environment. He also sits on the House Natural Resources Committee’s Subcommittee on Water, Wildlife and Fisheries. He voted for the October 2023 House resolution supporting Israel's defense following the Hamas attacks, voted against an amendment that would have eliminated $3.3 billion in U.S. foreign military financing for Israel, supported the Hamas International Financing Prevention Act, supported humanitarian assistance to Palestinian civilians and signed a February 2024 letter calling for a temporary pause in fighting to facilitate hostage releases, and voted in September 2026 for legislation restricting participation in federal student aid programs by colleges that boycott Israel.

Dan Green (R)

Green, a Navy veteran and former senior Defense Department official in the Trump administration as Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Strategy and Force Development. He has affirmed the importance of the U.S.–Israel relationship, citing shared values and strategic interests. Green won 25.4% of the Republican primary vote after being challenged by seven candidates. He is a Navy Reserve commander and national security researcher. He emphasizes national security, fiscal restraint, and an America First foreign policy. Following the September 11 attacks, he joined the Navy and completed four tours in the Middle East and Central Asia. Green supports reducing federal spending and regulations, stronger immigration enforcement, greater state control over education, and expanded domestic energy production. He identifies himself as very conservative and supports President Trump's agenda.

Florida’s  Newly Drawn 20th Congressional District

Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D)

(incumbent)

Wasserman Schultz is a longtime Democratic representative and former chair of the Democratic National Committee. She is the Ranking Member of the Subcommittee on Military Construction, Veterans Affairs, and Related Agencies, a member of the Subcommittee on Agriculture, Rural Development, Food and Drug Administration, and Related Agencies, a member of the Subcommittee on Energy and Water Development and Related Agencies, and a member of the House Committee on Foreign Affairs. She successfully won a crowded and competitive Democratic primary on August 18, 2026. They included Dale Holness, former Broward County Mayor, Elijah Manley, a progressive activist and teacher, Luther “Uncle Luke” Campbell, a rapper and community activist, and former Congresswoman Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick, who resigned after she was federally indicted on charges involving approximately $5 million in FEMA funds that prosecutors allege were improperly diverted and used, in part, to finance her congressional campaign. In March 2026, the House Ethics Committee determined that multiple ethics violations had been proven under its procedures.

Wasserman Schultz is running in Florida’s 39th newly drawn 20th Congressional District after the Governor and Florida legislature substantially altered her former district through a broad redistricting effort. She is running in Florida’s 39th newly drawn 20th Congressional District after the Governor and Florida legislature substantially altered her former district through a broad redistricting effort. Her decision to run in a district with a different electorate initially raised questions about representation, the effects of redistricting, and the future of the Democratic coalition in South Florida. This general-election contest will take place under the newly drawn district boundaries.

Debbie Wasserman Schultz has a longstanding congressional record supporting Israel and combating antisemitism. She has been particularly active in legislation addressing Jewish community security, Holocaust education, and antisemitism on college campuses. She strongly supports Israel's sovereignty, security, and right to self-defense, and continued American military assistance. She voted for emergency security funding for Israel in 2024, and condemned Hamas's terrorist attacks and advocated for the release of hostages. She supports Israel but has questioned Prime Minister Netanyahu's plans for ending the Gaza war. Following his July 2024 congressional address, she criticized his failure to provide sufficient details about achieving a lasting peace. She supports a diplomatic framework that addresses Israeli security, humanitarian assistance, and future Palestinian civilian governance without Hamas. In February 2025, Wasserman Schultz joined Congressman Jerry Nadler in establishing the Congressional Jewish Caucus, intended to advance Jewish community priorities and strengthen relationships across communities and political parties. In May 2022, she led a bipartisan resolution condemning antisemitism that passed the House 420–1. It called for stronger security at Jewish institutions, Holocaust education and measures against online antisemitism. In March 2026, she convened Jewish community leaders and law enforcement officials in South Florida to discuss threats against synagogues, Jewish community centers and other religious institutions. In April 2026, she introduced bipartisan legislation recognizing Jewish American Heritage Month and condemning rising antisemitism, emphasizing education about Jewish contributions to American history. Wasserman Schultz was among the sponsors of an October 6, 2026, House resolution marking the third anniversary of the October 7 attacks, supporting Israel's security, calling for humanitarian assistance and condemning antisemitism in the United States and abroad.

Brent Anderson (R)

 Anderson is a Pompano Beach businessman and insurance broker who won the August 18 Republican primary. His campaign focuses on reducing insurance costs, improving public safety, education, and economic opportunities. He has advocated reducing federal regulations and pursuing insurance reforms. He founded Pilgrim Bay Insurance Agency in 2010 and has approximately 16 years of experience in commercial insurance. He has held Republican Party leadership positions and gubernatorial appointments in higher education and state finance. He wants to lower taxes, reduce regulations and fiscal restraint, institute market-based reforms to reduce property insurance premiums, strengthen border security, while supporting temporary protections for certain Venezuelan families, greater local control and parental rights in schools, and strong law enforcement and gun rights with Second Amendment protections. Notably, Andersen did not answer the question about the importance of the U.S.–Israel relationship in his published iVoterGuide candidate questionnaire. His published campaign priorities focus primarily on affordability, insurance costs, economic opportunity, border security, and public safety.

Kedner Maxime (I)

Maxime is a Haitian-born pastor, businessman, tax accountant, and immigration-services specialist. He argues that Florida's 20th District, historically represented by Black members of Congress, should continue to have leadership rooted in its Black communities. He criticized Wasserman Schultz's decision to seek election in the district following redistricting. Lower prescription drug prices and expanded affordable coverage. He believes in secure borders combined with legal pathways for immigrants, more affordable housing and lower property insurance costs, increased public school funding, vocational training and college affordability. He calls for ending overseas wars, without providing a detailed position on individual conflicts. He advocates ending overseas wars but has not publicly detailed his positions on Israel, U.S. military assistance to Israel, or combating antisemitism. His campaign has focused primarily on economic affordability, healthcare, immigration, and representation of the district's Black communities.

Florida’s  Newly Drawn open 22nd Congressional District

Casey Askar (R)

Askar is a Marine Corps veteran and businessman who leads a family investment company. He identifies as an America First conservative and supports tax cuts, stronger border enforcement, and increased domestic energy production. He won a seven-candidate Republican primary with approximately 31% of the vote.

Pia Dandiya (D)

Dandiya is a former teacher, high school principal, and education executive who worked at Apple. Her campaign emphasizes affordability, education, health care, and government accountability. She defeated attorney Kaysia Earley in the August Democratic primary.

Florida’s Newly Drawn 23rd Congressional District

Lois Frankel (D)

(incumbent)

Frankel, another longtime Jewish Democratic congressional representative from South Florida, won her Democratic primary decisively in her newly drawn district after facing two Democratic challengers in the August 18, 2026, primary for Florida's 23rd Congressional District. Her challengers were Victoria Doyle, a progressive attorney and first-time candidate who campaigned against PAC contributions and special-interest money, and Mark Piper, a Florida businessman who founded a data collection business that evolved into a digital media production company serving automobile dealerships.

She is the ranking member on the House Appropriations Committee’s Subcommittee on National Security, Department of State, and Related Programs. This Subcommittee oversees funding for the State Department, foreign assistance, and international diplomacy, and she also sits on its Labor, Health and Human Services, Education, and Related Agencies Subcommittee, which oversees funding for health care, education, workforce programs, and related federal agencies.  

Deborah Adeimy (R)

Adeimy has worked in financial services for 25 years, is a financial adviser, and is a former Wall Street executive from West Palm Beach, Florida. She previously sought the Republican congressional nomination in 2022 and 2024 and identifies with the America First movement. She lists endorsements from Veterans for Trump and other conservative organizations.  However, her specific positions on U.S. military assistance to Israel and federal measures combating antisemitism are not extensively documented publicly, though she explicitly lists supporting Israel among her campaign priorities.

Florida’s  Newly Drawn 25th Congressional District

Both candidates are Jewish and support continued American military assistance to Israel. Their principal differences involve domestic policy, immigration, federal spending and their alignment with the Trump administration. The Republican and Democratic candidates are scheduled to participate in a Jewish community candidate forum on October 27, 2026, at the Miami Beach JCC. The discussion is expected to include Israel, antisemitism and Jewish community security.

 Jared Moskowitz (D)

(incumbent) 

Moskowitz, a prominent pro-Israel Democrat, is seeking reelection in the newly drawn 25th Congressional District. He is a member of the bipartisan Congressional Task Force for Combating Antisemitism. He currently is the Ranking Member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee’s Subcommittee on Oversight and Intelligence and is on its Subcommittee on East Asia and the Pacific. He is also listed on the Middle East and North Africa Subcommittee. He sits on the Judiciary Committee’s Subcommittee on Crime and Federal Government Surveillance and the Subcommittee on Courts, Intellectual Property, Artificial Intelligence, and the Internet. He also serves on the Select Subcommittee to Investigate the Remaining Questions Surrounding January 6, 2021, and he is a member of the bipartisan Congressional Task Force for Combating Antisemitism.

Moskowitz is an outspoken supporter of Israel and a leading congressional advocate for combating antisemitism. He supports continued American military assistance to Israel and has sponsored bipartisan legislation protecting Jewish communities and strong diplomatic and economic relations.

He won his Democratic primary against progressive challenger Oliver Larkin, who is a progressive political organizer whose campaign highlighted an emerging divide within the Democratic Party over Israel, Zionism, and U.S. military assistance. He condemned Hamas's attacks, supported the release of hostages, and has backed legislation commemorating October 7. He has publicly supported discussing a two-state solution and a ceasefire tied to hostage releases, opposes the Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions movement (BDS) targeting Israel, and supported humanitarian assistance to Palestinian noncombatants. He helped advance legislation incorporating the International Holocaust Remembrance Alliance (IHRA) working definition into federal education civil-rights investigations, helped introduce legislation proposing $1 billion annually for nonprofit security grants, stronger protections for Jewish students, and greater accountability for online antisemitism, criticized universities for failing to protect Jewish students and called for stronger enforcement of civil-rights protections, and serves on the House Bipartisan Task Force for Combating Antisemitism.

The race illustrated how redistricting can change the political environment even for established incumbents. The November contest will test whether Moskowitz can maintain his coalition in a district whose boundaries have changed and that is expected to be more competitive than his previous district.

Scott Singer (R)

Singer served as Boca Raton's mayor from 2018 to 2026. He supports President Trump's America First agenda and emphasizes reducing government spending and taxes. CBS Miami reported on October 14 that this is expected to be one of the nation's most expensive congressional races. Mayor of Boca Raton (2018–2026) and City Council member (2014–2018). He attended Harvard University and Georgetown University Law Center and is a business attorney and small-business owner. He is closely aligned with President Trump's America First agenda and was the Inaugural chair of the America First Policy Institute's Mayors' Council. Singer is Jewish and publicly identifies as a Zionist. He strongly supports Israel and the U.S.–Israel alliance, supports maintaining and increasing American military and diplomatic assistance to Israel, opposes conditioning or reducing military assistance to Israel, and has stated that his campaign’s priority is identifying and combating antisemitism. He supports preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. 

What Should We Watch in Florida?

Three broader questions may help explain the results:

These questions matter not only in Florida but also in other states where political coalitions are shifting and candidates are navigating divisions within their own parties. 

Looking Ahead

Florida is our first stop in JEI’s state-by-state election outlook. Int he coming weeks, we will examine other key states, focusing on the races most likely to shape Congress, the political forces driving those contests, and the implications for Jewish voters and the broader electorate.

Our purpose is to inform, provide context, and encourage a deeper understanding of the forces shaping American politics.

As always, JEI will approach these elections with a commitment to nonpartisan analysis and a careful examination of the data.

The 2026 general election is November 3. In many states early voting will begin very soon.  Polling reflects surveys conducted at particular points in time and should not be interpreted as a prediction of the final result.

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Our JEI family wishes you a healthy, safe and peaceful Shabbat, 

Barbara Goldberg Goldman
Chair | JEI

Jewish Americans represent a critically important segment of the American electorate. JEI believes that it is important for Jewish voices to be heard at the polling place in order to ensure that the community's concerns are adequately represented by elected officials.