October Newsletter

Darbandikhan Lake in Slemani, Kurdistan Region of Iraq.

Two years of political deadlock are weakening the region’s position in Baghdad and Washington. 

 

For more than three decades, Iraqi Kurdistan has been one of the more hopeful products of American involvement in the Middle East. Protection after 1991 allowed Kurds who had suffered under Saddam Hussein’s repression to establish security and self-government. Later, the Kurdish forces were useful partners in the U.S.-led operation in 2003 and against the Islamic State, and Erbil promised investment and trade in a relatively stable part of Iraq. 

 

Forming a government has long been a challenge in the Kurdistan Region, but never before has the region gone two years after a parliamentary election without a new cabinet. The outgoing government remains in office, and the parliament elected in October 2024 has convened only once. The prolonged political deadlock has come at a cost, deepening uncertainty over public policy and weakening the region’s negotiating position with Baghdad.

 

The problem is that there are two differing views on how power should be shared. The Kurdistan Democratic Party, which controls 39 of the 100 seats in parliament, wants its electoral strength reflected in the next government. The Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, which won 23 seats, seeks guarantees that it will have a say in key decisions. These are serious questions for parties with different constituencies and a long, sometimes difficult, history of co-governing. 

 

Any deal that works will have to tackle authority over revenue, appointments, and public administration. Distributing ministries alone will not settle those questions. But leaving them unresolved also has consequences. Parliament cannot provide effective oversight and the existing cabinet lacks the renewed mandate that would strengthen its hand in negotiations with Baghdad. It is more difficult to advance Kurdish interests when they do not have a unified position behind them. 

 

The financial relationship with Baghdad is a case in point. The September 2025 deal reinstated pipeline oil sales through the federal marketer SOMO, strengthening Baghdad’s hand in an area crucial to Kurdish finances. Oil and budget transfers have long been disputed, even before this impasse. It would be tough bargaining, even when Kurdistan had a united government. But without a common approach, it is more difficult to ensure reliable revenues and preserve the region’s discretion over spending. This has been negatively reflected in 2027 Iraqi national budget bill share of the Kurdistan Region's budget. Families dependent on public salaries have a direct interest in a settlement that makes payments more predictable, provided the federal government plays by the constitutional rules. 

 

There has been progress on the security front. The announcement in September of the unification of the Peshmerga under one ministry was a welcome achievement, supported by the United States and its coalition partners. Sustaining that arrangement will require steady political support and civilian control. The agreement on forming a government would allow military reform to continue through the next dispute rather than being caught up in it. 

 

There are good reasons for Washington to stay involved in the Kurdish partnership. The alliance has been in America’s interests, and the region’s constitutional autonomy deserves continued support. In the words of an American official I recently met, "We have common interests with the Kurdistan Region, but how to bring these two parties together?" This sense of disappointment has also been conveyed to both parties. Senior KDP leadership member Hoshyar Zebari acknowledges that there was criticism from Americans over the lack of government formation. And it should be safe to assume that the European partners share the same concerns.  

 

Security concerns make a deal pressing more than ever. The coalition’s September withdrawal from Erbil followed the timetable agreed with Baghdad in 2024, as Washington moves toward a bilateral security relationship with Iraq. Meanwhile, the Iran war has exposed Kurdish territory and infrastructure to attack. These developments give added weight to decisions about security and relations with Baghdad. They also make it more important that foreign partners know who can negotiate and carry out an agreement. 

 

This can be a challenge for friends of Kurds in Washington. Each appeal for assistance must compete with other demands on American attention. However, if there is a clear government with an agreed plan, then they can identify what they need and can offer. The absence of such a government leaves even sympathetic officials with less to work with. 

 

Nothing kills foreign investment like political uncertainty. Investors need confidence that contracts will be honored and payments made on time. Without that confidence, they delay investment, making it harder for businesses to plan, expand, and hire. Reliable contract enforcement, timely payments, and clear licensing and procurement rules would help build trust and support private-sector growth. A stronger private sector would give young Kurds more job opportunities beyond public-sector employment. 

 

Parliament should meet again and an agreement should be negotiated to create a clear government agreement. This will provide clarity on responsibilities and will allow any disagreements to be resolved in public institutions. Transparent accounts would strengthen confidence at home and improve the region’s position in budget talks. Washington can encourage these steps while maintaining its support for Kurdish security and constitutional rights. Having a stable Kurdish government will benefit America. 

 

Cooperation on the Peshmerga offers a useful precedent for settling these political differences. There will need to be compromises made from both sides. However, these should be weighed against the cost of delaying any further. The region is becoming more reliant on decisions being made in Baghdad and is losing influence with its friends. Whilst Kurdistan can have a constitutional status on paper, decisions around revenue and security are being decided elsewhere. Kurdish autonomy is worth compromising to ensure it can be sustained. 

 

Yerevan Saeed,

Barzani Scholar-in-Residence

Director of the Global Kurdish Initiative for Peace

Director Yerevan Saeed briefed the U.S. Department of State on developments in Kurdistan and Iraq. He also appeared on Rudaw TV and Kurdistan24 to discuss the implications of the U.S. midterm elections.

Saeed attended a dinner reception in honor of Iraq’s new ambassador to Washington, Krikor Der-Hagopian. He also attended a celebration marking the 34th anniversary of Azerbaijan’s restoration of independence at the Organization of American States (OAS) headquarters in Washington, D.C.

Saeed delivered a guest lecture titled “The Middle East After the U.S.” for the University of Central Florida’s Kurdish Political Studies Program. The lecture examined the region’s changing geopolitics and the implications of a reduced U.S. role.

On October 13, GKIP hosted Nadine Maenza, an advocate for international religious freedom and Chair of the Institute for Global Engagement, and Knox Thames, Executive Director of the Everett Center for Global Religious Freedom at Dallas Baptist University for a panel discussion on peaceful coexistence. The conversation explored the Kurdistan Region’s role in offering refuge and protection to Christians and other religious minorities displaced by conflict and persecution in Iraq and Syria.

Sirwan Kajjo published an article with Middle East Forum titled "Dispatch from Syrian Kurdistan." In the article, he examined how Damascus’s recentralization of power has reshaped northeast Syria, highlighting differences between larger cities and smaller Kurdish towns and emphasizing the need for constitutional guarantees to protect Kurdish rights.

"For me, Şamaran offers a way to connect inherited mythology with contemporary experiences of gender, power, and resistance. Her story allows me to question how historical narratives are constructed, whose knowledge is valued, and how cultural memory can be reclaimed and reimagined."

 

Sahar Tarighi is a Kurdish artist and educator from Rojhelat (Eastern Kurdistan) whose practice investigates the body and land as living archives. She works across mediums like ceramics, sculpture, installation, textile arts, video, and participatory practices. She researches the histories of displacement, labor, care, cultural erasure, and resistance. 

Using Kurdish mythology, oral history and collective memory, her work seeks to destabilize the dominant narration of history while envisioning various ways of belonging and collective futures. 

 

Following her MA in Painting in Tehran, Tarighi moved to the U.S. and earned her MFA in Studio Art at the University of Delaware in 2024. She is currently a Post-MFA Scholar in the Ceramics area of the Department of Art at The Ohio State University. Through studies of Shamaran, the mythic half-snake, half-woman creature of Kurdish lore, Tarighi examines notions of femininity, patriarchy, knowledge and perseverance. In her wide-ranging practice, she examines the balancing of remembering acts of violence and celebrating life, and the capacity of art to hold histories and project future realities. 

Her work on electricity reform and sustainable energy helped shape her interest in the policies needed to address climate change and improve energy security across the region.

 

Currently pursuing a master’s degree in Global Environmental Policy at American University’s School of International Service, Othman is building on her engineering background through research on environmental governance, energy and climate policy, and carbon removal. She has also worked to promote Kurdish history and heritage, co-founding Kurdia, an initiative that helped establish a course on modern Kurdish history at her undergraduate university. As a Barzani Peace Fellow, she continues to connect her academic and professional experiences with her commitment to Kurdistan. In this interview, Othman discusses her path from energy engineering to environmental policy, her experience working on energy reform, and how she hopes to contribute to a more sustainable future for the region.

Iraq

On October 25, Baghdad and Erbil held renewed talks over oil exports and the Kurdistan Region’s share of Iraq’s 2027 federal budget, but disagreements over oil production targets, revenue transfers, and budget allocations remain unresolved.

 

The Kurdistan Region’s oil sector also saw a major deal as Gulf Keystone and ShaMaran agreed to merge in a $601 million transaction. Separately, Iranian Kurdish opposition groups rejected reports of an agreement to expel them from Iraq, while Tehran continued pressing Baghdad and Erbil to disarm and relocate them.

 

Türkiye

The Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) withdrew from four camps near the Turkish border in Iraq’s Kurdistan Region on October 8 as part of its ongoing disarmament process. Meanwhile, DEM Party co-chair Tuncer Bakırhan accused Ankara of failing to advance political and democratic reforms, calling for an end to media censorship, the reinstatement of dismissed public employees, and the release of imprisoned Kurdish politicians.

 

Syria

On October 26, attacks on Kurdish families attempting to reclaim their homes in Gri Spi (Tel Abyad) left around 100 families sheltering in a local administration building and raised renewed concerns over the safe return of displaced Kurds.

 

Iran

Iran claimed on October 20 that Iraq had agreed to expel Iranian Kurdish opposition groups from the Kurdistan Region or hand them over to Tehran. However, Iraqi officials disputed that an agreement had been reached, while Kurdish opposition groups said they had received no official notice of any decision. The dispute comes amid renewed Iranian pressure on Baghdad and Erbil to enforce a 2023 security agreement requiring the groups to disarm and relocate away from the Iranian border.

Established in honor of the Kurdish leader Mustafa Barzani, the Global Kurdish Initiative for Peace offers the Barzani Peace Fellowship, a prestigious scholarship for graduate students dedicated to Kurdish affairs. Beyond financial support, it empowers future leaders through academic excellence, professional development, and opportunities to engage directly with the program and its mission for peace.

The Global Kurdish Initiative for Peace

4400 Massachusetts Avenue, NW,

Washington, D.C. 20016