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We cannot celebrate the Solstice or sing Baby Shark and not consider another happening on 21 June 2025. The United States Air Force and Navy, at the order of the President, bombed three nuclear research and production facilities (Isfahan, Natanz, and Fordow) in the sovereign nation of Iran.
We will not offer an opinion on this action, we will however provide some science facts and perhaps allow our readers to be a bit better informed about Iran's nuclear programs, facilities and expertise. Knowledge is power - be wise as you take in all the news about this incident - be curious and do some research on your own.
The History: Iran has had a nuclear program since 1957 when President Eisenhower signed a nuclear cooperation agreement with Shah Pahlavi. The result was the construction of the first light-water nuclear reactor in 1967. This reactor ran on highly-enriched U235 nuclear fuel supplied by the US. In 1974, the Shah expanded their nuclear programs and formed the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI) to build a network of nuclear reactors over 20 years. French and German companies were contracted to begin construction. These included a full-scale fuel cycle: from uranium mining through fuel fabrication in Isfahan. After the Islamic Revolution in 1979, efforts slowed. Then from 1980-1988, most nuclear programs were canceled due to the Iran-Iraq war. Under the Ayatollahs in the late 1990s to 2002, Iran began a new set of parallel projects - an overt civilian energy project and medical isotope effort and a covert weapons program. Reactor operations in Bushehr was accelerated with the input of Russian and Chinese expertise. These countries also provided technical plans, tools and components for the construction of enrichment centrifuges. In 2000, using a Chinese design, Iran expanded operations at Isfahan to produce uranium hexafluoride gas. Concurrently, the Iranian Army launched a missile research program.
What Iran Needs?: It takes four things to produce a viable nuclear weapon - a nuclear warhead (armed with 90% or greater enriched U235 or plutonium Pu239), a rocket housing, a navigation/guidance system and fuel to propel the missile/rocket. Iran has all four components at this time.
The process:
1. Raw Ore: Iran is the 18th largest producer of raw uranium ore in the world, capable of excavating 132,000 tons per year. A newly discovered and now the largest deposit has just come into production in the Yazd region in 2024. Three new discoveries have been made in Khoshoumi region, Charchouleh, and Narigan and exploration is advancing.
2. Processing: raw ore is crushed and then placed in leaching pits where acids remove the uranium from of the ore. Ion-exchange processes concentrate the uranium from solution which is then dried into an uranium concentrate called 'yellowcake'. Yellowcake solid contains about 80% uranium in the form of U3O8 (tri-uranium octoxide). The uranium is >99.9% U238 and less than 0.1% fissionable U235. Thus, the yellowcake must be processed or enriched to recover the minute amount of U235 from the solid. This is primary production of yellowcake is done in a facility in Ardakan.
3. Enrichment: Iran has two known fuel enrichment facilities - Fordow and Natanz - as well as, newly stated facilities in unknown locations. At the two enrichment sites, the solid U3O8 is combined with fluorine gas to produce uranium hexafluoride gas (UF6). This gas is transferred to a series of centrifuge cascades (16 cascades at Fordow contained 3000, 6-meter tall, advanced IR-1 gas centrifuges). In the centrifuge, the gas is spun at high speeds to separate the two uranium isotopes by weight using centripetal force - physically separating the light U235 atoms from heavy U238 atoms. Because the fissionable U235 is in such tiny quantities, the gas must be spun multiple times - each recovered light-weight alloquot moves from one centrifuge to the next in series or cascade, the product of each advancing amount of gas becoming more concentrated in U235. Most nuclear reactors use fuels with less than 5% U235, isotopes needed for medical purposes are produced from 20% enriched U235. Fission-bomb weapons require material containing 90% or > U235 known as weapons-grade uranium. The latest estimates by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is Iran possesses 400 kilos (9722 pounds) of 60% or greater enriched U235 - it takes only one additional enrichment step to reach 90% material. The Hiroshima bomb contained a 17.3cm (6.8") sphere of highly-enriched U235 - the sphere weighed 56kilos. Less enriched material can be used to make a weapon but as the enrichment % decreases, the amount of uranium needed to create a fission reaction increases.
Weapon State: There are two types of nuclear weapons - tactical and strategic. Iran does not have the technical rocket capabilities to produce a strategic nuclear weapon - those capable of striking anywhere on the globe. However, North Korea has provided Iran the rocket, fuel and guidance capabilities to produce a tactical weapon - these small, highly mobile battle-field capable weapons would be able of strike distances up to 3000 kilometers (central Europe, southern Russia, India). In combination with Iran's current ballistic missile capabilities - Iran could easily place a tactical weapon anywhere in the MidEast. The Fatah-1 hypersonic ballistic missile, unveiled in 2023, is reported to have high velocity, is maneuverable within and outside the atmosphere, and has the ability to evade most anti-missile defense systems. These could be armed with a nuclear warhead.
Having studied North Korean weapon capabilities for The Paris Contagion, I took away one learning - one cannot expect to 'bomb away knowledge' from any country. Iran has many talented and well-educated nuclear scientists and engineers. Removing infrastructure through attack simply slows the overall development processes, the brains remain and with their alliances with other nuclear-capable countries - it would not take long to re-establish a viable Iranian weapons program.
The information above was compiled from various Wikipedia and open-file CIA, IAEA and US military sources. The internet is a powerful and sometimes skewed source of information - combine several sources to confirm or refute claims.
"Mankind invented the atomic bomb, but no mouse would ever construct a mousetrap" Albert Einstein