It is said that April showers bring May flowers, this year we are getting all our rain in May, with temperatures remaining thankfully cool.  Our limited winter snow pack melted off with the few warmer days we had. Fingers crossed the fire season is delayed by our cool, wet May weather.

Quantum Time is almost ready. Jennica Dotson, editor extraordinaire, slogged patiently through the 135,000 words and made the story so much better. Beta-editor Mariann aided me in the overall story arc across the 4 book series. Rachel George, my graphic designer, did a bang-up job on the cover. Using the Carina nebula as the backdrop, the cover is eye-catching and hints at the story within it. More will be forthcoming as the publishing process continues to evolve.

As noted last month, we added an Opinion section. Several of you let us know you appreciated the candid, fact-based presentation of the challenges our scientific community is struggling with. Be it the loss of over 800 grants to the NIH for cutting edge research into the cures of tomorrow, the mass exodus of our science elite to other countries, the cutting of more than 50% of the forecasters at NOAA, or the impact on higher education-especially the limitation on foreign students. We are losing our brain trust. The impacts may be immediate as spring and summer storms ravage the midwest and warnings are delayed or absent. To the forecasting of hurricanes as that season approaches. And long-term to the protection against the next pandemic. We will be even-handed - sticking with the facts, not naming names. After all that is what science is based in - FACTS. Focusing on the science behind some of the decisions and happenings in the hope of offering an explanation and effects of some decisions. If this isn't something you are interested in, feel free to skip over this.

How big is big? On 15 January 2022 the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Haʻapai underwater volcano erupted sending a plume of ash 50 kilometers into the upper reaches of the atmosphere. What we didn't know until last month was the atmospheric disturbance caused by this event went farther. A lot farther. The energy released in the eruption traveled well into space and disturbed orbiting satellites at an altitude of 510 kilometers above the Earth. The magnitude of this eruption and its impact underscore the interconnected nature of natural disasters and the world we live in. We've spoken of these global events before, not only Hunga Tonga but the 1883 eruption of Krakatoa in Indonesia. This event ejected 25 cubic kilometers of material 80 kilometers into the atmosphere. The sound was heard as far as Alice Springs, Australia (3600 kilometers) and the island of Rodrigues (4780 kilometers). Its global impact was due to the debris it ejected. This material circled the globe and dropped temperatures worldwide causing crop failures in Europe and North America. The pressure changes from the explosion was recorded on barographs seven times as the pressure wave circled the global over and over.

Why is this important? Because two similar volcanoes have been identified in North America which could have the same impact on the world and are showing signs of eruption. Mount Spurr (the largest stratovolcano in the Aleutian Arc) located 81 kilometers from Anchorage, Alaska and directly in the great circle route of major airlines flying to and from Asia. And the Axial Seamount, a newly discovered underwater volcano 300 miles off the Oregon coast. Both of these volcanoes present a danger to the world and each have shown increased magma activity in the last two months.

Today we have a variety of 'predictors' geophysicists can use to determine the likelihood of an eruption - the occurrence of low-frequency earthquake swarms, swelling/deformation of the ground on and around the volcano summit, increases in surface temperature readings and sulphur dioxide emissions. Mount Spurr has exhibited an increase in seismic activity with as many as 73 earthquakes per day in the last month. These small low-frequency quakes are not usually felt but do indicate upward magma movement beneath the volcano's central crater. Another indicator of magma movement is noted deformation of the crest of the mountain and formation of a bulge. This volcano, due to its proximity to Anchorage, is monitored with multiple arrays deployed across the mountain and from a swarm of satellites. Fumaroles are now emitting steam around the upper flanks of the mountain and around the central crater lake, as noted on the net of webcams which continuously monitor activity within the crater (Volcano Livestream). The USGS (United States Geologic Survey) has added a net of sound devices to 'listen' for activity as well. All these indicators as well as SO₂ emissions as noted on satellites indicate magma is rising within the stratovolcano.

Will it erupt? When will it erupt? All we have are these indirect indicators of magma movement beneath Mount Spurr. The activity may mean nothing or something. When Mt St Helens erupted in May 1980, my geophysics professor - Dr. Tony Qamar - was monitoring an increase in odd low frequency, low harmonic earthquakes in the area around Mt. St Helens on a portable seismic net he laid out on the mountain side. After the eruption (and a bit in hindsight) he determined these quakes were directly correlated to magma rising in the liquid filled chamber beneath the volcano. Monitoring active or potentially active volcanoes for these events is now standard practice in volcano observations. Dr. Qamar was killed in a freak accident when logs fell off a tractor-trailer and crushed his car while driving on the Olympic Peninsula to retrieve monitoring equipment. (Dr.Qamar).

The underwater Axial Seamount is a mile-tall volcano in offshore Oregon and its locale presents unique challenges for volcanologists. One - its under 1500 meters of water (4900'). It is located 300 miles offshore on the tectonically active Juan de Fuca Plate - a micro-plate caught between the massive Pacific and North American plates. But University of Washington scientists are not deterred. Both increased earthquake activity and inflation of the volcano's cone have been observed on the UW Cabled Array. This subsea volcano has erupted 3 times in the last 20 years and thus was the ideal spot to locate the university's new underwater array. (Axial Seamount) The caldera of this volcano is 2 miles wide and 5 miles long. Could it erupt with the same force and global impact of Hunga Tonga? Perhaps. But, continuous monitoring will allow scientists to forewarn of increased activity.

With the caveat that geology and geologic studies are not an exact science and geology is seen by many as more an art form than anything, observations are critically important to forewarn the public of potential hazards - be it in well-known areas like Kīlauea, on the Big Island of Hawaiʻi or unknown areas like Hunga Tonga or other deep sea locations. Geologic warnings are better than none.

Copy Cats: One of the key bonding behaviors in social animals is mirroring each other's facial expressions. If you see your pup smile, it makes you smile back. A new study in Scientific Reports and summarized in Science reveals that, like humans, cats tend to mirror the faces of their companions (Its All in the Smile). To get along with their kitty-buddies, cats can exhibit more than 300 facial expressions. We all know dogs, horses and orangutans perform a trait called 'rapid facial mimicry' or RFM. This is attributed to and seems critical to social bonding. It may even be a precursor to developing empathy. Dr. Zamansky and her colleagues developed an AI program to record and analyze cat facial expressions during cat-to-cat interactions in a Los Angeles cat cafe. 22% of the time, cats in close proximity to one another mirrored each others' expression within a fraction of a second. This behavior was a way to 'test' the acceptance of a play-session. And then gauge the continuation of play when things get a bit rough. Perhaps people should try this method as well?

Where is a day longer than a year ? On Venus. The planet's rotation is slower than its revolution about the sun. I guess you could get a lot done there.

How long was a day 600 million years ago? 21 hours. Overall the speed of the Earth's rotation is slowing at a rate of 1.8 seconds per hundred years. In another 600 million years, a day will be 28+ hours long. And we worry about Daylight Savings Time and the loss of an hour? Go figure.

11.8 million years ago a massive star exploded in the spiral M81 galaxy within the constellation Ursa Major. The resulting supernova was discovered by amateur astronomer Francisco Garcia Diaz in 1993 (SN 1993J). The top Hubble image recorded light which traveled 11 million light years to reach the Earth. As noted in the inset, the supernova remnants can still be seen today. The 2nd image is an artist's rendition of the explosion. Credit: NASA

Satellite image of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai volcano eruption in 2022. NOTE: the curvature of the Earth on the right half of the image. Credit: European Space Agency

Carl Zimmer writes a far-reaching history of the hidden science of aerobiology. From the first time airborne life was captured by Dr. Louis Pasteur on the top of a glacier in the French Alps to the rapid spread of COVID-19, the author chronicles the various airborne diseases which have caused numerous deadly periods in humankind history - from the BlackDeath to cholera to the newly reoccurring risk of tuberculosis. And if this isn't scary enough, he also opens the door on the shrouded history of biological warfare and the associated germs created since WWII. (The Air We Breathe)

Richard L. Garwin was born in April 1928 in Cleveland, Ohio and died this month at the age of 97. This polymath genius received his PhD in physics under the supervision of Enrico Fermi from the University of Chicago at the age of 21. Though too young to take part in the Manhattan Project in Los Alamos, Dr, Edward Teller charged the young scientist with designing the hydrogen bomb following WWII. Most do not know his name nor his role in the H-bomb's creation - as the hydrogen bomb is most often attributed to Dr. Teller. Even the movie Oppenheimer shows Teller as the one who wanted the H-bomb built over the design of the atomic bomb. Dr. Fermi stated, days before his death, that Dr. Garwin was the 'only true genius he ever worked with'. In 1952 Dr. Garwin's design was tested on the Bikini atoll in the central Pacific Ocean. The power of the stars was born on Earth. The H-bomb tested was 600,000 times greater than the Hiroshima device. After the test, Dr. Garwin disappeared from atomic research and worked for IBM - designing our smartphone touchscreen technology and the discovering the foundations for laser printers and MRI scanners. He received 47 patents while publishing over 500 scientific papers. He rued the day he invented the hydrogen device and worked tirelessly advising presidents (from JFK to Donald Trump) about the danger of nuclear proliferation and potential disaster of a nuclear war. Dr. Garwin remained a disarmament advocate to the day of his death.

Having had the privilege of hearing Dr. Edward Teller speak at Los Alamos National Laboratories in 1982, his views on nuclear war had changed and he was then espousing the need for a good defense as the best offense in global conflict. This was the advent of the Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI) or 'Star Wars' program. Although Teller was a hawk, in his later years he too realized the horrors of nuclear armament and agreed with Dr. Garwin beliefs and shared his regrets. (Fighting Armageddon)

Below is Dr. Garwin receiving the Presidential Medal of Freedom from President Barack Obama.

In this new section, we will explore the impact decision-making has on science and science-related topics. As we said above, if this isn't to your liking skip over this section.

The US National Institutes of Health, founded in 1887, is responsible for some of the most impactful advances in medical science and their associated benefits on humankind. The 27 separate institutes have garnered 153 Nobel prizes and 195 Lasker Awards over its history. The resultant discoveries range from prevention of bacterial tooth decay in children using fluoride to discovering the source of bubonic plague, a vaccine against Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever to a drug regime to defeat Hodgkins' Lymphoma, from completing the structure of IgE receptors aiding the understanding and prevention of allergic reactions to the use of gene-therapies for mRNA vaccines and personalized cancer treatments. The NIH sponsored clinical trials have overridden the standard homogeneous population trial approach to adopt trials using a highly diverse population which has shown increased success in the transition from trial to application of the resultant therapies.

The NIH has had its funding cut by $2.4 billion dollars with an additional 37% cut proposed in the next budget cycle. Programs which are lost include: bipolar disorder studies, children's bone marrow cancer research, Alzheimer's and dementia studies, and a 20 year program at the University of Michigan on the impact of medical discrimination in underserved populations. Once halted, these studies cannot be easily restarted if they can ever be retrieved. Most of the affected researchers are now departing the US for research centers in other countries.

Though some of our subscribers have benefited from NIH vaccine development which prevented them from suffering childhood diseases, I myself was not as lucky. Born in the era of polio but blessed to receive the first Salk vaccine funded in part by the NIH, I did have rubella, German measles, chicken pox and mumps. Which all means I have hearing loss in one ear and have had shingles twice. These preventable diseases now have widely available vaccines due to NIH advances in medicine. As diseases once thought eradicated - measles, tuberculosis, and small pox - reappear, the NIH needs to continue to be the world leader in research, protecting the US and the world's population from disease. (NIH Cuts)

Just a reminder for our readers - we always provide the reference to the information shared - it's usually in a link. Make sure you click on the link if you're interested in learning more about the subject.

AI is never used in the design, construction or editing of our newsletters.

We'll be back next month with another installment. Be well, be kind. CA