"Holding onto anger is like drinking poison and expecting the other person to die."✍️

- Buddha

✅ U.S. stocks are hovered near the nearly unchanged mark Tuesday as investors look toward today’s final FOMC meeting.

✅ Trump announces $12B farm aid plan to offset trade war damage.

✅ Paramount makes hostile $30/share bid for Warner Bros. Discovery to rival Netflix deal.

✅ Trump greenlights Nvidia’s H200 China sales with 25% U.S. revenue cut attached.

✅ Millions of borrowers could re-enter repayment under proposed student loan settlement.

✅ Silver smashes $60 record as industrial demand and rate-cut hopes accelerate rally.

MARKET SNAPSHOT

↘ Dow                            47,560.29                         - 0.38%
↗ Nasdaq                       23,576.49                        + 0.13% 
↘ S&P                              6,840.51                         - 0.088% 

Trump Unveils $12 Billion Aid Package for Farmers Affected by Trade War

President Donald Trump on Monday announced a $12 billion aid package aimed at helping U.S. farmers caught in the crossfire of trade tensions with major economic partners, particularly China. The funding, drawn from U.S. tariff revenues, is being described as “bridge payments” to help farmers transition away from policies enacted during the Biden administration.

Up to $11 billion will be distributed through the USDA’s new Farmer Bridge Assistance program, providing one-time payments to row crop farmers, while the remaining $1 billion will be reserved to address shifting market conditions, according to White House officials. Trump was joined at the announcement by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins, members of Congress, and farmers raising crops and livestock including corn, soybeans, cotton, sorghum, rice, wheat, and potatoes.

The plan drew criticism from Democratic lawmakers. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer argued that Trump’s tariffs have hurt farmers, making it costlier to grow food and risking bankruptcies, while Senator Ron Wyden said the aid “won’t even get agriculture communities back to even,” citing rising costs for fertilizer, equipment, and seeds and ongoing obstacles in foreign markets.

China, a key buyer of U.S. soybeans, halted purchases for several months during critical harvest periods amid trade tensions. While Beijing resumed buying in late October after a tentative trade truce with Trump, imports have not returned to prior levels. Treasury Secretary Bessent said China remains on track to meet its commitment to purchase 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans by the end of February, part of a longer-term plan to buy at least 25 million tons annually over the next three years. In 2024, China purchased nearly 27 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans.

The administration frames the package as a temporary support measure to stabilize the agricultural sector while navigating trade and economic shifts.

Paramount Launches Hostile Bid for Warner Bros. Discovery to Outmaneuver Netflix

Paramount Skydance on Monday unveiled a $30-per-share, all-cash tender offer for Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD), aiming to convince shareholders that it is a better buyer than Netflix. The bid is backed by $41 billion in equity financing, with additional funding from RedBird Capital and Jared Kushner’s Affinity Partners, along with $54 billion in debt commitments from Bank of America, Citi, and Apollo Global Management.

The tender offer will remain open for 20 business days, during which WBD shareholders can sell their shares to Paramount. If Paramount acquires a majority stake, it would gain control of the company. Paramount CEO David Ellison indicated that $30 per share is not the company’s “best and final” offer, leaving room for a potential increase to persuade shareholders.

WBD’s board, however, reaffirmed its support for the existing Netflix deal, which it finalized last week, and advised shareholders not to take action on Paramount’s proposal. The board did note it will review Paramount’s offer in line with its agreement with Netflix. Analysts see Paramount’s bid as potentially gaining traction, though Netflix remains committed to its $27.75-per-share cash-and-stock deal for WBD’s streaming and studio assets.

Ellison argues that Paramount’s bid, combined with better regulatory odds, offers more value to shareholders than Netflix’s deal. He criticized a Netflix-WBD combination as “anticompetitive” and potentially harmful to Hollywood and consumers. Netflix co-CEO Ted Sarandos countered, asserting confidence in completing the deal and highlighting job creation over potential cost-cutting.

Paramount may also need to factor in the $2.8 billion breakup fee owed to Netflix if it prevails, which could require an increase in its offer. The coming weeks could see a drawn-out tug-of-war, potentially involving proxy fights or shareholder litigation.

Trump Approves Nvidia H200 AI Chip Sales to China with 25% U.S. Revenue Cut

President Donald Trump announced Monday that Nvidia will be allowed to sell its H200 artificial intelligence chips to “approved customers” in China and other markets, on the condition that the U.S. government receives a 25% share of the sales. In a Truth Social post, Trump said Chinese President Xi Jinping “responded positively” to the proposal.

Trump emphasized that the move “will support American jobs, strengthen U.S. manufacturing, and benefit American taxpayers.” He added that the Commerce Department is finalizing the details and that a similar framework will apply to other U.S. chipmakers, including AMD and Intel.

Earlier agreements had Nvidia and AMD sharing 15% of China chip revenue with the U.S. government. While China previously restricted the use of Nvidia’s H20 chip designed for the country, the new H200 is a higher-grade model, though not Nvidia’s top-tier product.

Nvidia shares rose modestly earlier Monday on news of the approval, later paring gains and finishing about 2% higher in after-hours trading. Nvidia praised the decision, stating it allows the U.S. chip industry to compete while supporting high-paying jobs and manufacturing.

Semiconductors remain a critical element of the U.S.-China AI race and broader trade tensions. In prior discussions, Trump and Xi reached a tentative trade truce, with China agreeing to halt retaliation against U.S. chipmakers, paving the way for agreements like the H200 export deal.

Trump Administration Moves to End Payment Pause for Millions of Student-loan Borrowers

The U.S. Department of Education and the State of Missouri announced a proposed settlement that could shift millions of borrowers out of a payment pause and back into repayment.

Borrowers who remain enrolled in the SAVE plan under the previous administration will now be required to choose a new repayment plan.

The SAVE plan has been effectively blocked since February, after a ruling by the 8th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals sided with Republican-led states that challenged the legality of the program under Joe Biden.

As of July, more than 7.6 million borrowers were enrolled in SAVE forbearance.

Under the terms of the settlement, the Education Department would agree not to enroll any new borrowers in SAVE and would move all existing SAVE borrowers into “legal repayment plans.”

Experts predict many will have to leave SAVE early next year — well before the program’s originally intended expiration date of July 1, 2028.

The SAVE plan had been attractive to borrowers because it offered lower monthly payments and faster debt forgiveness for those with smaller balances. The settlement signals that those benefits will likely end sooner than expected.

Silver has officially entered uncharted territory. The precious metal surged past $60 an ounce for the first time ever, with futures touching $60.41 and spot prices climbing more than 3% in the latest session. The breakout caps what is now the strongest 12-month performance since 1979, eclipsing the dramatic spikes seen in 2008 and 2020. The SLV ETF — a widely followed proxy for silver prices — has soared more than 100% year-to-date, signaling powerful investor conviction behind the move.

Analysts say the rally has been building for months — and the fundamental drivers are still strengthening.

Silver’s role in the global economy is changing. Once viewed primarily as a store of value, it has become critical to advanced manufacturing and clean-energy infrastructure. Demand is rising rapidly from industries that require its unmatched electrical and thermal properties.

Industrial consumption has now outpaced global mining supply, a structural imbalance that shows no signs of easing. Production growth remains constrained, and new mines take years to develop — supporting a long-term bullish outlook.

Silver is also benefiting from a wave of global uncertainty. Investors are increasingly turning to tangible assets as inflation remains elevated in major economies, as central banks continue to ease policy (a 25 bps Fed rate cut is expected soon), government debt levels hit new records, and confidence in monetary policy wanes.

Unlike gold, silver straddles both worlds — a hedge against currency risk and a play on economic expansion through technology and electrification. That dual identity is giving silver a performance advantage over other major asset classes in percentage terms.

“Higher prices don't instantly create more silver,” one metals strategist noted. “This is a long-cycle material — demand can change overnight, but supply can’t.”

📉 ON THE MOVE AND NOTABLES 📈

✔️ The economic calendar kicked off with a mild upside surprise, as the NFIB Small Business Index ticked up to 99 in November, ahead of expectations.

✔️ Last week’s ADP employment report showed signs of labor market weakness, prompting bond markets to price in a nearly 90% chance of an interest-rate cut at Wednesday’s meeting, which could lower the fed funds target range to 3.5%–3.75%.

✔️ The U.S. dollar has been under sustained pressure this year, with the DXY Index tracking a nearly 9% annual decline—its weakest showing since 2017.

✔️ Gold remains steady up around the $4,200 mark as investors await a Fed cut decision.

✔️ Oil prices are set to fall below $60 in 2026. Investment banks and the U.S. Energy Information Administration forecast a significant oil market oversupply next year.

✔️ Bitcoin (BTC) was little changed, holding above $90,000. Crypto-related equities traded broadly lower ahead of the open.

✔️ The 10-year Treasury yield’s premium to the 3-month rate recently reached its widest level since September 2022—a move that may reflect rising optimism about the economic outlook into year-end.

✔️ December has historically been a favorable month for equities, with the S&P 500 averaging a 1.4% gain since 1950—compared with roughly 0.8% for all months.

✔️ China’s trade surplus reached $1.1 trillion through November. “There’s very little evidence that China is suffering from the trade war,” said Kevin Gordon, head of macro research and strategy at SCFR.

✔️ Home Depot (HD) dipped after reaffirming its existing outlook ahead of its investor day. Management expects fiscal 2026 EPS to decline nearly 5%—slightly below consensus—while projecting revenue growth of roughly 3%.

✔️ Toll Brothers (TOL) fell after reporting an EPS miss despite revenue exceeding expectations. The homebuilder cited “soft demand across many markets,” and shares of peers also trended lower.

✔️ CVS Health (CVS) advanced after lifting its full-year 2025 guidance, pointing to “meaningful momentum across our business.”

✔️ AutoZone (AZO) slipped as quarterly earnings came in below consensus estimates.

✔️ Alphabet (GOOGL) extended its recent weakness after its RSI climbed above 75 late last month, signaling overbought conditions. Bloomberg also reported that the European Union has opened a probe into Google over alleged unfair terms that could advantage its AI model over competitors.

✔️ Ares Management (ARES) surged after being selected for inclusion in the S&P 500, leveraging momentum in the private credit sector.

✔️ Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH) slid after Goldman Sachs downgraded the stock to Neutral from Buy, citing a less compelling risk-reward profile tied to capacity trends and the

✔️ CoreWeave (CRWV) fell after announcing plans to issue $2 billion in convertible debt, raising concerns about potential share dilution.

✔️ Marvell Technology (MRVL) dropped after being left out of the S&P 500, despite speculation it could be added. Benchmark also downgraded the stock from Buy to Hold. 

✔️ Carvana (CVNA) surged after S&P Dow Jones Indices announced the company will be added to the S&P 500 in the index’s quarterly rebalancing.

✔️ Confluent (CFLT) jumped after IBM (IBM) revealed plans to acquire the company in an $11 billion deal. IBM CEO Arvind Krishna described Confluent as a “smart data platform for enterprise IT, purpose-built for AI.” IBM shares slipped 1.6%.

✔️ Salesforce (CRM) rose another 5% on Friday following strong earnings and guidance last week, though pre-market trading shows a slight pullback.

✔️ Apple (AAPL) fell after several top executives—including leaders in AI, interface design, and legal/government affairs—departed. Wedbush, however, raised its price target on Apple from $320 to $350, noting 2026 as a potential breakout year for the company’s AI efforts.

✔️ Tesla (TSLA) slipped after Morgan Stanley downgraded the stock to Equal Weight from Overweight, citing valuation concerns and forecasting 2026 auto volumes roughly 13% below consensus due to a cautious EV market outlook.

💲What Else to Watch This Week 💲

Monetary policy will dominate investor attention this week, as the final FOMC meeting of 2025 concludes today. Markets largely expect a 0.25% rate cut, while updated Fed economic projections and guidance for 2026 are likely to be the major focus.

🟢 Wednesday (Dec. 10): EIA Crude Oil Inventories, Employment Cost Index, FOMC Rate Decision, MBA Mortgage Applications Index, Treasury Budget, Wholesale Inventories. Earnings from Adobe Inc. (ADBE), Chewy Inc. (CHWY), Daktronics Inc. (DAKT), Hello Group Inc. (MOMO), Nordson Corp. (NDSN), Oracle Corp. (ORCL), Photronics Inc. (PLAB), Synopsis Inc. (SNPS), Uranium Energy Corp. (UEC), Vail Resorts (MTN).

🟢 Thursday (Dec. 11): Continuing Claims, EIA Natural Gas Inventories, Initial Claims, Producer Price Index (PPI), Core PPI. Earnings from Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), Ciena Corp. (CIEN), Costco Wholesale Corp. (COST), Lovesac Co. (LOVE), Lululemon Athletica Inc. (LULU), Netskope Inc. (NTSK) RH Inc. (RH).

🟢 Friday (Dec. 12): Earnings from Johnson Outdoors Inc. (JOUT), Zedge Inc. (ZDGE).

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