"A banker is a fellow who lends you his umbrella when the sun is shining and wants it back the minute it begins to rain." ✍️

- Mark Twain

✅ U.S. stocks steadied as the S&P 500 snapped a two-day losing streak.

✅ Taiwan’s new trade pact with the U.S. commits $250 billion to domestic chip manufacturing, easing tariff uncertainty while strengthening supply-chain security for advanced semiconductors.

✅ Trip.com shares tumbled after Chinese regulators launched an antitrust investigation, reviving concerns over regulatory risk just as outbound tourism is poised for a strong recovery.

✅ Intel’s shares continued to move higher this week after CEO Lip-Bu Tan met with President Trump, highlighting growing government support as the value of the U.S. stake in the chipmaker surges.

✅ Toyota Industries stock jumped after Toyota Motor raised its buyout offer above $35 billion, though analysts warn the revised bid may still undervalue the company and invite activist pressure.

✅ Rising geopolitical tensions—from stalled U.S.-Denmark talks over Greenland to uncertainty around Iran—are driving market volatility and fueling a surge in precious metals.

MARKET SNAPSHOT

↗ Dow                            49,442.44                        + 0.60%
↗ Nasdaq                       23,530.02                        + 0.25% 
↗ S&P                              6,944.47                        + 0.26%

Taiwan Will Invest $250 billion in U.S. Chip Manufacturing Under New Trade Pact

The United States and Taiwan have reached a new trade agreement aimed at expanding semiconductor manufacturing on U.S. soil, the Department of Commerce announced Thursday.

Under the deal, Taiwanese chipmakers and technology companies will invest at least $250 billion in U.S. production capacity, with the Taiwanese government providing up to $250 billion in credit guarantees to support those investments. In return, the U.S. will cap reciprocal tariffs on Taiwan at 15%, down from 20%, and eliminate reciprocal tariffs on generic pharmaceuticals and their ingredients, aircraft components, and certain natural resources.

The agreement also outlines tariff relief under the Section 232 framework for companies building chip factories in the U.S. While facilities are under construction, firms such as Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) will be allowed to import up to 2.5 times the capacity they are building without paying tariffs. Once plants are completed, imports of up to 1.5 times U.S. production capacity will be permitted tariff-free.

The deal provides greater clarity for chip and technology companies that have faced uncertainty around U.S. tariff policy over the past year. It also encourages continued U.S. investment by TSMC, the world’s largest contract chipmaker, while allowing it to maintain production in Taiwan for U.S. customers.

TSMC has already committed as much as $40 billion to semiconductor fabs in Arizona, producing chips for companies such as Apple and Nvidia with support from prior CHIPS Act funding.

U.S. officials have emphasized domestic production of advanced chips as strategically critical, particularly as access to AI-related semiconductors has become a major geopolitical issue. Concerns have also mounted over the potential economic impact if a conflict were to disrupt Taiwan-based chip production.

Trip.com Shares Sink Over 20% After China Launches Antitrust Investigation

Shares of Trip.com plunged nearly 22% in Hong Kong on Thursday after Chinese regulators announced an antitrust investigation into the online travel giant.

China’s State Administration for Market Regulation said late Wednesday it is probing Trip.com over “suspected abuse of its dominant market position and monopolistic practices,” according to a CNBC translation of the agency’s statement.

Trip.com said it would “actively cooperate” with the investigation and emphasized that its business operations remain normal.

Trip.com is Asia’s largest online travel services provider by market capitalization and ranks among the world’s biggest players in the sector. The company holds stakes in UK-based flight aggregator Skyscanner, India’s MakeMyTrip, and several domestic Chinese travel platforms.

The regulatory scrutiny comes as China’s outbound tourism market is expected to rebound sharply this year. Travel marketing and technology firm China Trading Desk estimates that mainland Chinese travelers will take between 165 million and 175 million cross-border trips in 2026, up from roughly 155 million last year.

Intel CEO Meets with Trump as U.S. Stake Gains Sharply in Value

Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan met with President Donald Trump last week, helping to extend a rally that has more than doubled the share price since the U.S. government took an equity stake in the chipmaker last August.

Following the meeting, Trump praised both Tan and Intel in a post on Truth Social, writing that the “United States Government is proud to be a shareholder of Intel.” He described Tan as “very successful” and highlighted Intel’s recently launched chip that was “designed, built, and packaged right here in the U.S.A.”

Tan responded on X, saying he was honored by the meeting and “delighted to have the full support and encouragement” of President Trump and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick. He also noted that Intel’s Core Ultra Series 3 processors—its first major product built on the Intel 18A process—are now shipping.

In August, the White House finalized an $8.9 billion investment in Intel, acquiring 433.3 million shares at $20.47 per share. With Intel closing Friday at $45.55, the government’s stake is now valued at roughly $19.7 billion. The stock is up more than 20% year to date.

The improving relationship between Trump and Tan marks a sharp reversal from earlier tensions. Just weeks before the investment was announced, Trump publicly called for Tan’s resignation following concerns raised by Sen. Tom Cotton over the CEO’s past ties to Chinese companies and potential national security risks.

Intel responded at the time by reaffirming its commitment to U.S. national and economic security, with Tan emphasizing that his global industry relationships were built in full compliance with legal and ethical standards. Tan was appointed CEO in March 2025 as Intel worked to stabilize operations and address declining sales following leadership changes.

Toyota Industries Shares Jump After Toyota Motor Raises Buyout Offer Above $35 Billion

Shares of Toyota Industries surged on Thursday after Toyota Motor increased its buyout offer for the group company by more than 15%, valuing the deal at over $35 billion.

Toyota Industries stock climbed 6.3% to 19,160 yen, trading above the revised tender offer price. Shares of Toyota Motor, the world’s largest automaker by sales, rose more than 2%.

Toyota Motor said late Wednesday it raised its offer to 18,800 yen ($118.11) per share, up from the 16,300 yen announced in June last year, as it moves forward with plans to take Toyota Industries private.

The automaker had previously proposed acquiring the group for 4.7 trillion yen. The transaction included a 1 billion yen contribution from Chairman Akio Toyoda, along with roughly 700 billion yen invested by Toyota Motor in non-voting preferred shares.

Toyota Industries pushed back on the original offer in December, requesting a higher price and warning that the deal faced limited prospects of success.

“While the revised offer marks an all-time high, it still appears somewhat light,” said Arun George, a global equity research analyst at SmartKarma. He noted that the price falls below the midpoint of the valuation range outlined by an independent adviser, suggesting the company may remain undervalued.

Toyota Industries, the original founder of Toyota Motor, manufactures forklifts, engines, electronic components, and stamping dies, among other products.

“I expect there to be some interesting fireworks around this deal,” said independent analyst Travis Lundy. “This is the most mispriced takeover Japan has seen in quite some time, and I anticipate activist investors will either push for a higher bid or attempt to block the transaction.”

Meanwhile, Toyota Motor reported weaker recent operating results. Global production fell 5.5% year over year to 821,723 vehicles in November, marking the first decline in six months. Global sales also slipped 2.2%, with the automaker citing reduced demand in China following a rollback of purchase subsidies in certain regions.

The company also warned of a significant impact from U.S. tariffs, estimating a 1.45 trillion yen (more than $9 billion) hit for its fiscal year ending in March.

Last November, Toyota Motor announced plans to invest $912 million across manufacturing facilities in five U.S. Southern states, part of a broader commitment to invest up to $10 billion in the United States by 2030.

Senior officials from Greenland, Denmark, and the United States met at the White House on Wednesday to discuss Washington’s controversial push to assert control over Greenland. The talks concluded without a resolution, underscoring what Danish Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen described as a “fundamental disagreement” between President Donald Trump and the Danish government.

The lack of progress was widely anticipated. Even before the meeting, all sides had made their positions clear. Greenland Prime Minister Jens-Frederik Nielsen said Tuesday that if forced to choose, Greenland would stand with Denmark, NATO, and the European Union. Meanwhile, Trump reiterated his stance in a social media post ahead of the meeting, insisting that “anything less” than full U.S. control of Greenland would be unacceptable.

On another foreign policy front, Trump struck a more conciliatory tone toward Iran, suggesting he may hold off on military action because “we’ve been told that the killing in Iran is stopping.” His remarks weighed on oil prices, which fell about 1.5% during U.S. trading on Wednesday.

Iran temporarily closed much of its airspace late Wednesday amid rising tensions with the United States, according to a notice from the Federal Aviation Administration.

The restriction, initially set to run from 10:15 p.m. UTC Wednesday to 12:30 a.m. UTC Thursday, was later extended until 3:30 a.m. UTC. Flight-tracking data showed aircraft rerouting around Iranian airspace.

International flights to and from Tehran were exempt, provided they received prior approval from Iran’s civil aviation authority.

The closure followed heightened tensions after President Donald Trump threatened possible intervention in response to a deadly crackdown on anti-government protests in Iran. Trump later struck a more cautious tone, saying he had been told the killings had stopped and that he would monitor the situation before taking further action.

The U.S. has also withdrawn some personnel from military bases in the region amid Iranian threats of retaliation.

Heightened geopolitical uncertainty — coupled with Trump’s apparent challenge to the Federal Reserve’s independence — has fueled a surge in precious metals. Gold and silver continued their rally, with silver already up more than 26% in the first two weeks of 2026 and both metals setting fresh record highs.

📉 ON THE MOVE AND NOTABLES 📈

✔️ The fourth-quarter earnings season for the S&P 500 kicked off in earnest this week, starting with large U.S. banks. Thus far, underlying results have been solid, with banks noting solid loan demand and trading volume.

✔️ Jobless claims declined, pointing to labor-market stability – Initial jobless claims fell to 198,000 last week, below expectations of 215,000 and well under the 30-year median of 320,000. Continuing claims also edged down to 1.88 million, though they remain well above the 2022 lows near 1.35 million and above the pre-pandemic (2018–2019) average of roughly 1.7 million.

✔️ On Thursday President Donald Trump rolled out the broad outline of a health-care plan that the White House claims will lower drug prices and insurance premiums.

✔️ Strong earnings from Taiwan Semiconductor lifted the tech-heavy NASDAQ and the broader technology sector after the company reported better-than-expected earnings and revenue and raised its outlook for the current quarter.

✔️ Wells Fargo (WFC) fell after reporting earnings that appeared to underwhelm investors. 

✔️ Bank of America (BAC) edged higher after beating both earnings and revenue estimates. Results were supported in part by a 10% increase in net interest income.

✔️ Amazon filed an objection to Saks Global’s bankruptcy financing plan on the grounds it could harm creditors and push the tech company further down the repayment pecking order. The tech company invested $475 million into Saks’ acquisition of Neiman Marcus, a stake it said is now effectively “worthless.”

✔️ Citigroup (C) gained even though quarterly revenue came in below expectations but earnings per share exceeded Wall Street forecasts.

✔️ Oil prices fell more than 1% Wednesday and were down over 4% on Thursday after President Donald Trump signaled he might not attack Iran.

✔️ Silver (/SI) surged to fresh record highs above $92 an ounce on Wednesday. Gold (/GC) also advanced, supported by concerns over Federal Reserve independence, geopolitical risks, and a modest pullback in the U.S. dollar. By Thursday both metals trended lower.

✔️ Bond yields are little changed, with the 10-year Treasury yield hovering near 4.15%.

✔️ Bitcoin (/BTC) reclaimed the $95,000 level for the first time in more than a week. The cryptocurrency had climbed above $98,000 on Wednesday, its highest level in two months.

✔️ Digital wallet and custody firm BitGo expects to launch its initial public offering next week, Barron’s reported.

✔️ Boeing (BA) gained after news that it surpassed Airbus in new aircraft orders last year and secured a major order from Delta Air Lines (DAL) for 30 Boeing 787 Dreamliner jets. 

✔️ Netflix (NFLX) added gains following a Bloomberg report suggesting the company may revise its bid for Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) to an all-cash offer. 

✔️ JPMorgan Chase (JPM) slid after releasing quarterly results that showed a 5% year-over-year decline in investment banking revenue.

✔️ Moderna (MRNA) surged this week, a move that may reflect institutional buying as the stock’s technical outlook improves, according to Barron’s.

✔️ Tesla (TSLA) slipped modestly after CEO Elon Musk announced plans to shift Full Self Driving to a subscription-only model, Barron’s reported.

✔️ Goldman Sachs slipped despite posting a fourth-quarter earnings beat. 

✔️ Morgan Stanley reported fourth-quarter results that beat expectations, driven by a 47% surge in investment-banking revenue.

✔️ BlackRock climbed after delivering an earnings beat. 

✔️ Spotify edged up after the streaming company announced plans to increase subscription prices.

✔️ Rare earth stocks rallied Wednesday after President Trump signed an executive order recommending adjustments to rare earth imports to address national security and supply-chain risks, including the potential for tariffs.

✔️ Rivian Automotive shares fell following a downgrade to sell from UBS. 

💲What Else to Watch Ahead💲

🟢 January 16: December industrial production and expected earnings from PNC Financial (PNC), State Street (STT), M&T Bank (MTB), and Regions Financial (RF).

🟢 January 19: No data or earnings, markets closed in observance of Dr. Martin Luther King Jr.'s birthday.

🟢 January 20: Expected earnings from 3M (MMM), U.S. Bancorp (USB), Fastenal (FAST), D.R. Horton (DHI), Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB), KeyCorp (KEY), Netflix (NFLX), Interactive Brokers Group (IBKR), and United Airlines (UAL). 

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