“NATO is the foundation of peace and security in the 21st century, and its strength depends on the solidarity of its members.” ✍️

—George W. Bush

✅ U.S. stocks ticked higher Tuesday as markets cautiously rebounded, even as renewed attacks around the Iran war lifted oil prices and uncertainty persisted over efforts to secure international support for protecting shipping through the strategic Strait of Hormuz.

✅ Donald Trump has abandoned efforts to rally allies for the Iran conflict, openly criticizing NATO and other nations while claiming the U.S. can continue operations independently amid rising regional tensions and disruptions to global energy markets.

✅ Elon Musk and the U.S. SEC are negotiating a potential settlement over delayed disclosures of his 2022 Twitter acquisition, which could end years of legal disputes while Musk maintains the reporting delay was inadvertent.

✅ Tesla is purchasing $4.3 billion of battery cells from LG Energy Solution’s former GM plant in Lansing to expand its energy storage business, highlighting growth in Megapack and residential solar markets despite broader EV market challenges.

✅ Arizona has filed criminal charges against Kalshi for allegedly operating an unlicensed gambling and election-wagering platform, intensifying legal battles between state regulators and prediction markets.

✅ Shares of Swarmer Inc. skyrocketed up to 700% in their IPO debut, marking the strongest U.S. launch since Newsmax despite the company reporting minimal revenue and significant net losses.

MARKET SNAPSHOT

↗ Dow                            46,992.26                     + 0.10%
↗ Nasdaq                       22,479.53                     + 0.47% 
↗ S&P                              6,716.09                     + 0.25% 

Trump Abandons Push for Allies in Iran War and Criticizes NATO

Donald Trump has dropped efforts to rally international support for the war with Iran and is now openly criticizing allies who refused to join. He insisted the conflict could end soon, even as military operations continue.

Several key allies—including Germany, France, Canada, Greece, and Norway—have explicitly declined to participate in U.S.-Israeli operations. Their refusal comes amid escalating tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, where disruptions have pushed oil prices close to $100 per barrel.

Trump sharply rebuked NATO, calling its stance a “very foolish mistake,” while also singling out Japan, Australia, and South Korea for not stepping in. At the same time, he claimed the U.S. does not need assistance, adding, “we don’t need them, but they should have been there.”

The conflict has already disrupted global energy markets, with shipping through the Strait of Hormuz nearly halted and oil prices spiking before easing slightly.

Trump defended the war by arguing it was necessary to stop Iran’s nuclear ambitions, claiming—without evidence—that Iran was just weeks away from developing a weapon.

Despite saying the U.S. will leave “in the near future,” Trump acknowledged that forces are “not ready to leave yet,” creating uncertainty about the timeline for de-escalation.

Meanwhile, fighting continues. Israel said it killed senior Iranian official Ali Larijani, though this has not been confirmed by the White House. If verified, it would mark one of the most significant killings since the death of Ali Khamenei at the start of the war. Leadership has since passed to Mojtaba Khamenei.

Iran has escalated its response, launching attacks on energy infrastructure and even setting a major gas field in the United Arab Emirates on fire—its first direct strike on such facilities there during the conflict.

The escalation, combined with shipping disruptions, briefly sent oil prices toward $105 per barrel before retreating.

Trump suggested shipping through the Strait of Hormuz could resume soon, saying delays “won’t be… too long.”

The war is also reshaping diplomacy and domestic politics: Trump postponed a planned meeting with Xi Jinping to focus on the conflict, while opposition at home is growing. Notably, senior counterterrorism official Joe Kent resigned in protest, arguing the U.S. had been drawn into the war by Israel.

Elon Musk, US Sec in Talks to Settle Suit Over 2022 Twitter Disclosures

Elon Musk and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission are in discussions to resolve the SEC’s lawsuit over Musk’s 2022 Twitter (now X) disclosures. The case accuses Musk of delaying the disclosure of his initial purchases before acquiring the company for $44 billion.

In court filings on Tuesday, both sides told U.S. District Judge Sparkle Sooknanan that they are “engaged in discussions of a potential resolution” that could make further proceedings unnecessary. The parties requested an extension for scheduling new proceedings to April 1 from March 18.

The potential settlement comes six weeks after the judge rejected Musk’s attempt to dismiss the case, and coincides with SEC Chairman Paul Atkins shifting some enforcement priorities. A deal would close the ongoing legal disputes between Musk and the SEC that began in September 2018, when Musk faced securities fraud allegations for tweets claiming he had secured funding to take Tesla private.

Musk previously settled that case by paying a $20 million fine, agreeing to pre-approve certain Tesla communications, and stepping down as Tesla chairman.

The SEC alleges Musk’s 11-day delay in reporting his initial 5% Twitter stake allowed him to purchase over $500 million in shares at artificially low prices, and seeks a civil fine plus repayment of $150 million. Musk has maintained the delay was inadvertent and accused the SEC of infringing his free speech rights.

Separately, a San Francisco federal jury heard closing arguments in a trial by former Twitter shareholders claiming Musk misled them as he considered abandoning the acquisition. Musk contends that Twitter had more fake accounts than disclosed, which justified his hesitation.

X is now part of Musk’s SpaceX following his AI company xAI acquisition, creating the world’s most valuable private company at roughly $1.25 trillion. Musk’s personal net worth stood at about $834 billion on Monday, more than three times that of second-ranked Google co-founder Larry Page.

Tesla To Buy $4.3 Billion Of LG Energy Battery Cells from Disbanded GM Plant

Tesla Inc. is expanding its partnership with LG Energy Solution, agreeing to purchase $4.3 billion worth of battery cells for energy storage systems produced in Lansing, Michigan.

The Lansing plant was originally developed for a joint venture between LG and General Motors, but GM exited the initiative in late 2024, selling its stake to LG as part of a broader pullback from EV investments.

Tesla’s energy business, including its Megapack and Megablock systems, is growing rapidly, driven by increasing electricity demand from data centers and renewable energy storage needs. The company also sells Powerwall batteries for residential solar setups. In 2025, Tesla’s energy segment generated $12.8 billion—up 27% year-over-year—accounting for 13% of total revenue, even as total revenue declined due to a 10% drop in automotive sales.

Details of the Tesla-LG agreement were announced at the Indo-Pacific Energy Security Summit in Japan, alongside $56 billion in private sector commitments, according to the U.S. Department of the Interior. LG confirmed it will establish dedicated production lines at Lansing to fulfill the deal, using LFP (Lithium Iron Phosphate) prismatic cells.

GM remains present in Lansing but has largely retreated from the EV market, taking $7.6 billion in related write-downs.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk projects “very high growth for as far into the future as we can imagine” for the energy business, though CFO Vaibhav Taneja warned of potential margin compression due to low-cost competition and tariffs. Tesla faces competition from companies like BYD in China and startups such as Form, which are developing alternative battery technologies.

Arizona Charges Kalshi with Criminal Misdemeanors, Alleging It’s an Illegal Gambling Operation

Kalshi is facing its first criminal charges after Arizona’s attorney general accused it of running an illegal gambling and election-wagering operation in the state.

The filing by Kris Mayes includes 20 counts of accepting bets without a license, including wagers on state elections, which Arizona law explicitly prohibits. Mayes emphasized, “No company gets to decide for itself which laws to follow.”

Kalshi differentiates its event contracts from traditional sportsbook or casino offerings, arguing that it falls under federal jurisdiction overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The company stated that Arizona’s charges are based on “paper thin arguments” and that states are attempting to individually regulate a nationwide financial exchange.

Kalshi has pursued preemptive federal lawsuits in multiple states, seeking preliminary injunctions to block enforcement actions. Federal judge Michael Liburdi recently denied a temporary restraining order in Arizona, ordering Kalshi to explain why the case should be in federal court given the state charges.

Legal experts note that Kalshi’s “win the race to the courthouse” strategy has been effective in other states, including New Jersey and Tennessee, but has faced setbacks, such as in Ohio, where federal judge Sarah Morrison prioritized the state’s regulatory interests.

The charges underscore growing tension between state regulators and prediction platforms, with the SEC emphasizing stricter oversight for contracts that could encourage manipulation, such as event outcomes affecting athletes or public events.

Shares of Swarmer Inc. surged as much as 700% on Tuesday, marking the strongest U.S. IPO debut since Newsmax Inc. nearly a year ago.

The Austin-based company began trading at $12.50—about 150% above its IPO price—and quickly climbed to around $40 during the session. The rapid rise triggered multiple volatility halts, including one within the first minute of trading after an initial drop of more than 10%.

Swarmer had sold 3 million shares at $5 each, giving it an initial valuation just above $60 million. At its intraday peak, the company’s market value approached $500 million, highlighting the intensity of investor demand.

Despite the explosive debut, the company’s financials remain modest. Swarmer reported just $309,920 in revenue for 2025—down about 6% year over year—while its net loss widened to roughly $8.5 million, more than four times the prior year’s loss.

📉 ON THE MOVE AND NOTABLES 📈

✔️ Oil prices rose to as high as $103 on Tuesday as doubts lingered over a U.S.-led coalition to protect shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

✔️ The 10-year U.S. Treasury is down 2 basis points today and about 9 basis points so far this week.

✔️ The U.S. dollar is giving back some of its recent safe-haven gains, now about 0.75% below its recent peak against a basket of trade-weighted currencies.

✔️ Elevated oil prices are continuing to drive higher costs at the pump for U.S. consumers. The national average price for regular gasoline has risen to $3.80 per gallon—about $1 above the low seen in January 2026. In higher-cost states like California, prices reached $5.50 yesterday.

✔️ A busy week of central bank meetings will offer insight into how policymakers are responding to the oil price shock. The Federal Reserve will be in focus, as markets have already scaled back expectations for rate cuts, now pricing in just one 25-basis-point cut later this year. This aligns with the Fed’s December projections, and investors will be watching closely to see if policymakers still anticipate further easing.

✔️ Shares of Nvidia rose modestly this morning. CEO Jensen Huang said at the company’s GTC conference that hardware revenue could reach $1 trillion through 2027, driven by growing demand for AI inference. That outlook suggests $50–$70 billion more revenue than current Wall Street expectations for 2026–2027, prompting JPMorgan to maintain an overweight rating.

✔️ Lululemon Athletica gave weaker-than-expected sales and earnings forecasts for its fiscal 2026.

✔️ Delta Air Lines climbed after forecasting first-quarter revenue growth in the high single digits, above its prior 5%–7% guidance range.

✔️ Lyft gained after announcing plans to use “Agentic AI” to improve ride efficiency, including integrating Nvidia’s AI into its machine learning systems. Rival Uber also moved higher, likely in sympathy.

✔️ Nebius (NBIS) stock fell 10% on Tuesday after the AI infrastructure company announced it was raising $3.75 billion in convertible debt following major deals with Meta and Nvidia.

✔️ Honeywell International fell after warning that geopolitical conflict could weigh on first-quarter revenue. Rising energy costs, tighter raw material supply, and risks to key trade routes are increasing costs and pressuring margins across industries.

✔️ Eli Lilly slipped after HSBC cut its rating to reduce. The firm argued that expectations for the obesity drug market—currently estimated above $150 billion—are too high, projecting instead an $80–$120 billion market by 2032 with significant pricing competition.

✔️ Warner Bros. CEO David Zaslav set to receive up to $887 million for navigating major M&A deal.

✔️ Dollar Tree rose following better-than-expected earnings and guidance.

✔️ Oklo jumped after securing its first license from the Nuclear Regulatory Commission. The company is targeting commercial power production by 2028.

✔️ The European Union is set to restart delayed ratification proceedings for its trade deal with the US, European Parliament trade committee chair Bernd Lange told Bloomberg on Tuesday.

✔️ Consumer-focused names performed well this week but remain sensitive to oil price movements. Notably, airline stocks have been among the weakest performers this year and were already well below January highs before the recent conflict. Airline stocks rose on Tuesday as the overall market rose for a second day in a row, and airline executives noted a surge in customers rushing to lock in airfares.

✔️ Shares of Beyond Meat (BYND) dropped more than 7% on Tuesday after the company said it would delay filing its 2025 annual report, adding to the company’s financial pressure.

✔️ Bitcoin traded near $74,000 on Tuesday as strategists highlighted its relative strength despite market jitters amid the Iran war.

💲What Else to Watch This Week💲

The Federal Reserve meets later today. The Fed meeting is likely to end with no change in rates but begins with intrigue. The mystery regards Powell's plans, assuming his term ends on time in May.

🟢 March 18: FOMC rate decision, Bank of Japan (BOJ) rate decision, February PPI, and expected earnings from General Mills (GIS), Williams-Sonoma (WSM), Micron (MU), and Five Below (FIVE).

🟢 March 19: ECB rate decision and expected earnings from Alibaba (BABA), Accenture (ACN), Darden Restaurants (DRI), and FedEx (FDX).

🟢 March 20: No major data or earnings expected.

🟢 March 23: January construction spending.

🟢 March 24: Expected earnings from GameStop (GME) and KB Home (KBH).

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