"Opportunities come infrequently. When it rains gold, put out the bucket, not the thimble." ✍️

- Warren Buffett

✅ U.S. stocks rebound, recovering from Monday’s sell-off that ended five-day winning streaks, raising questions about a December Santa Claus rally.

✅ U.S. manufacturing contracts for ninth straight month amid tariff pressures.

✅ Nvidia rebounds after CEO highlights China as “bonus opportunity.”

✅ Bitcoin slides 7%, raising doubts about year-end rally.

✅ Altman declares “code red” as OpenAI scrambles to upgrade ChatGPT.

✅ Apple faces increased EU class-action risk after court ruling.

MARKET SNAPSHOT

↗ Dow                            47,474.46                        + 0.39%
↗ Nasdaq                       23,413.67                        + 0.59% 
↗ S&P                              6,829.37                        + 0.25% 

U.S. Manufacturing Slumps Again as Tariffs Deepen Industry Pressures

The U.S. manufacturing sector contracted for the ninth consecutive month in November, according to new data released Monday by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). The Manufacturing PMI came in at 48.2, down from 48.7 in October, as the Trump administration’s tariff policies continued to weigh on an industry heavily reliant on imported materials. Readings below 50 signal contraction.

Despite strong year-to-date performance, the industrials sector has declined about 1.6% over the past month.

Survey respondents highlighted ongoing challenges tied to trade disruptions. “At any given point, trade with our international partners is clouded and difficult. Suppliers are finding more and more errors when attempting to export to the U.S. — before I even have the opportunity to import,” one manufacturer noted, adding that “conditions are more trying than during the coronavirus pandemic in terms of supply chain uncertainty.”

Index components for new orders, employment, supplier deliveries, and order backlogs all weakened in November, pulling the headline reading lower even as production, prices, and imports showed growth.

The ISM report also flagged rising costs for raw materials such as aluminum, copper, natural gas, and key minerals, while electrical components and rare earth metals remain in tight supply. Labor shortages were also cited as a continuing constraint.

“Business conditions remain soft as a result of higher costs from tariffs, the government shutdown, and increased global uncertainty,” another respondent said.

Nvidia Stock Rebounds After Jensen Huang Calls China a “Bonus Opportunity”

Nvidia (NVDA) shares reversed early losses and moved higher this week after the company announced a $2 billion investment in Synopsys (SNPS) and CEO Jensen Huang delivered upbeat commentary on global demand, including potential upside from China.

After falling more than 1% in early trading, Nvidia stock climbed roughly 1.5% by the afternoon. The turnaround came shortly after Huang told CNBC that China should be viewed as additional upside rather than a core assumption for the company’s outlook.

“I would like everybody to just assume that China is a bonus opportunity in the future,” Huang said on Squawk on the Street. “At the moment, demand is really skyrocketing, and over the next couple of years we’ve got a lot of demand we have to go serve. And if China comes along … that’s going to be a huge bonus opportunity for us.”

Huang also highlighted Nvidia’s expanded partnership with Synopsys to accelerate development of AI-driven engineering and design tools.

“This is a huge deal,” he said. “The partnership we’re announcing today is about revolutionizing one of the most compute-intensive industries in the world — design and engineering.”

Synopsys, which designs tools and offers services to companies, is partnering with Nvidia on engineering and marketing activities, including compute-intensive applications, advanced agentic AI engineering, and joint go-to-market initiatives.

Nvidia (NVDA) had declined 12% in November on competitive concerns despite strong earnings and guidance.

Bitcoin Retreats then Bounces Making Year-End Rally in Question for Crypto Markets

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) fell more than 7% on Monday, weighing on crypto-linked equities and raising doubts about a year-end rally despite growing expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut.

The world’s largest cryptocurrency dropped from roughly $91,000 on Friday to $84,000 on Monday, driven by concerns that Japan may raise interest rates. This spurred fears that investors who had borrowed cheap yen to buy assets like U.S. stocks and bitcoin could rush to unwind those trades, triggering broader selling.

Nic Puckrin, investment analyst and co-founder of The Coin Bureau, noted that a similar yen unwind in August 2024 caused bitcoin to plunge 18% within days. “Now that history is repeating itself, it’s wise to prepare for more volatility,” he said, adding that last year’s drop was followed by a rebound and new highs.

Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) also suffered, posting $3.5 billion in outflows and marking their second-worst month. The token is now down more than 30% from its October all-time high above $126,000 and has recently struggled to break past the $92,000 level.

“While conditions can shift quickly, a sustained rally still appears unlikely in the near term, especially before year-end. But 2026 may present a very different setup,” noted a 10X Research client note Monday. Bernstein analysts added that they are “still looking for clear signs for bitcoin to bottom out.”

Weak bitcoin price action has also impacted crypto-related equities. Strategy (MSTR) fell 10%, Coinbase (COIN) slid 5%, and Robinhood (HOOD) dropped 4%, reflecting broader investor caution in the digital-asset space.

Bitcoin rose to above $90,000 on Tuesday, lifting crypto-linked names such as Coinbase (COIN), MicroStrategy (MSTR), and Circle Internet Group (CRCL).

Monday’s 5.5% slide marked bitcoin’s worst single-day drop since March. Bitcoin lost 17% in November and is still down nearly 30% from its October record high. Waning interest in Bitcoin typically signals broader risk-off sentiment.

Sam Altman Declares “Code Red” as OpenAI Races to Improve ChatGPT Amid Rising Competition

OpenAI (OPAI.PVT) CEO Sam Altman has reportedly urged employees to fast-track improvements to ChatGPT as competition heats up from Google (GOOG, GOOGL) and Anthropic (ANTH.PVT).

According to The Information, Altman declared a “code red” in an internal memo on Monday, directing teams to focus their resources on upgrading ChatGPT. The shift in priorities will postpone work on other projects, including OpenAI’s planned AI agents.

The urgency comes as Google’s newest model, Gemini 3—launched in November to strong acclaim—outperformed ChatGPT on key benchmarks and helped push Google’s stock to record highs. High-profile tech leaders, including Salesforce CEO Mark Benioff, publicly praised Gemini 3, with Benioff even announcing he was switching from ChatGPT to Google’s model. While Altman publicly congratulated Google, he privately warned staff that Gemini 3 could create economic challenges for OpenAI, per earlier reporting from The Information.

Anthropic, another major competitor, heightened the pressure by releasing its updated Claude Opus 4.5 model on Nov. 24.

OpenAI is operating under ambitious financial expectations as it aims to grow revenue from $13 billion in 2025 to an estimated $200 billion by 2030. With GPT-5—introduced in August to mixed reactions—OpenAI remains focused on preserving the leadership position it gained with ChatGPT’s debut three years ago.

Apple (AAPL) may now face increased class action–style damages claims across the European Union after the bloc’s top court ruled that users of its Dutch App Store can collectively sue in the Netherlands, regardless of where they live.

The European Court of Justice said an Amsterdam court can hear claims from two foundations alleging that Apple’s App Store commissions—sometimes reaching up to 30% per sale—are anticompetitive. Although the ruling centers on the Netherlands, it is expected to pave the way for similar group actions targeting other App Store versions throughout the 27-nation EU.

“In determining where the damage occurred, the virtual space of the Dutch App Store should be considered the territory of the Netherlands,” the court stated. “The damage suffered through those purchases can therefore arise in that territory, regardless of where users were located at the time.”

Apple, based in Cupertino, California, argued that Dutch courts lacked jurisdiction because the alleged misconduct did not take place in the Netherlands, particularly not in Amsterdam. The company said it disagrees with the ruling, emphasizing that the decision is strictly about jurisdiction.

📉 ON THE MOVE AND NOTABLES 📈

✔️ Japan’s Nikkei dropped after hints from the Bank of Japan that a rate hike may be approaching, triggering a sell-off in both domestic and global government bonds. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said the central bank "will consider the pros and cons of raising the policy interest rate.

✔️ The dollar is weaker against a trade-weighted basket of currencies while oil is slightly firmer at $59 per barrel.

✔️ This past weekend President Trump indicated, “I know who I am going to pick,” when asked who will succeed Jerome Powell when his term ends in May. Treasury Secretary Bessant suggested that a formal nomination could be announced before Christmas.

✔️ Markets are firmly pricing in another rate cut, with odds of a 25-basis-point reduction close to 100% following dovish comments from Fed officials and labor-market concerns noted in last week’s Beige Book.

✔️ Some strategists say the so-called Santa Claus rally may not happen this year after a string of events kept uncertainty high. “None [of the months this year] have behaved the way they have seasonally," Amy Wu Silverman, head of derivatives strategy at RBC Capital Markets, told Yahoo Finance.

✔️ Since 1980, the S&P 500 has posted positive December returns 71% of the time, with an average monthly gain of 1.2%.

✔️ RBC Capital Markets has become the latest Wall Street firm to signal confidence in US stocks, establishing a new 12-month price target for the S&P 500 at 7,750.

✔️ Gold hovered above $4,200.

✔️ Copper is holding near a record as supply fears grip the market.

✔️ Silver jumped to a fresh all-time peak on Monday as traders eyed tight supply and optimism for a US interest rate cut in December.

✔️ Dell Technologies (DELL) founder Michael Dell has announced a $6.25 billion donation for “Trump accounts” that will support newly created savings accounts for young children, enacted into law earlier this year.

✔️ Ford reported November sales dipped 0.9% to 166,374 units sold.

✔️ Nvidia (NVDA)—which declined 12% in November on competitive concerns despite strong earnings and guidance—announced a new strategic partnership with Synopsys (SNPS), including a $2 billion Nvidia investment in Synopsys shares.

✔️ Amazon (AMZN) unveiled a new AI chip on Tuesday, the company’s latest effort to take on industry leader Nvidia (NVDA) with custom silicon designed to handle certain AI workloads more efficiently and at a lower cost.

✔️ CrowdStrike's (CRWD) third quarter results came in marginally better than expectations, leading the company to raise its full-year guidance, as artificial intelligence adoption boosts demand for its Falcon platform.

✔️ Chipmaker Marvell Technology (MRVL) reported an earnings beat and said it will buy ‌semiconductor startup Celestial AI in ‌a cash-and-stock deal worth $3.25 billion.

✔️ Intel (INTC) went higher after TF International analyst Ming-Chi Kuo posted on X Friday that the company is expected to begin building Apple's M series chips for its MacBook Air and iPad Pro as soon as early 2027.

✔️ Okta (OKTA) stock fell after the company beat Wall Street estimates for revenue and profits in the third quarter.

✔️ MongoDB (MDB) surged after reporting earnings late Monday that far exceeded expectations, with revenue also topping consensus thanks to strong Atlas growth. The company additionally issued upbeat guidance.

✔️ Chip and AI-related stocks were broadly firmer early Tuesday, including Super Micro Computer (SMCI), Palantir (PLTR), Intel (INTC), Oracle (ORCL), Broadcom (AVGO), and Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM).

✔️ Symbotic (SYM) fell after Goldman Sachs downgraded the warehouse automation company to Sell from Neutral. While Walmart (WMT) has embraced Symbotic’s technology, the analyst noted limited traction with new independent customers in recent years.

✔️ Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) gained after The Wall Street Journal reported that Netflix (NFLX) raised its offer for the company. Paramount Skydance (PSKY) and Comcast (CMCSA) have also submitted second bids, according to Barron’s.

✔️ Homebuilders, auto manufacturers, consumer stocks, and financials weakened Monday as Treasury yields climbed. The move also pressured some of last week’s outperformers, including the rate-sensitive Russell 2000 (RUT) small-cap index.

✔️ Chevron (CVX) gained after receiving an upgrade to Buy from Hold at HSBC, which set a $169 price target.

✔️ Barrick Mining Corporation (B) said Monday that it's exploring an IPO of its North American gold assets.

✔️ Samsung Electronics Co. unveiled its first so-called trifold smartphone called the Galaxy Z TriFold.

✔️ Costco Wholesale Corp. (COST) has joined a rapidly expanding group of companies filing lawsuits against the Trump administration, aiming to preserve their eligibility for refunds should the U.S. Supreme Court overturn the president’s flagship global tariffs policy.

✔️ Short seller Michael Burry, who rose to fame shorting the housing market during the 2008 financial crisis, dubbed Tesla as "ridiculously overvalued” this week.

✔️ Internationally, China’s official NBS Manufacturing PMI ticked up to 49.2 but remained in contraction territory (below 50) for the eighth consecutive month, with new orders and export demand still soft.

✔️ In U.S. consumer data, Black Friday online sales rose 9.1% year over year to a record $11.8 billion, according to Adobe Analytics. Attention now turns to Cyber Monday.

💲What Else to Watch This Week 💲

Retailers, such as Macy's (M), Dollar Tree (DLTR), American Eagle Outfitters (AEO), and GameStop (GME), report this week, providing further insight into how softening consumer sentiment.

🟢 December 3: ADP November employment, November ISM Services Index, September industrial production, and expected earnings from DollarTree (DLTR), Macy's (M), Salesforce (CRM), and Snowflake (SNOW).

🟢 December 4: November Challenger Job Cuts and expected earnings from Kroger (KR), Dollar General (DG), and Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE).

🟢 December 5: September personal income and spending, September PCE and core PCE, October factory orders, and University of Michigan preliminary December consumer sentiment. 

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